| Darren Sharp. 6th May, 2009 - 8:45 pm
 The Toronto Blue Jays are arguably the most surprising team in baseball right now. They have ridden a hot start to a 19-10 record, the best in the AL and second in the majors behind the Dodgers. I, for one, was one of the early naysayers who assumed that the Jays would have yet another mediocre seasons leading to a predictable fourth place (or, Lord willing, third place!) finish. However, it's May now, and the team still looks as competitive as ever, winning close games and showing us pessimists a thing or two.
The question all Jays fans have on their mind is this: will the hot streak continue, or is this just a mirage? It's hard to say. There's been a lot of things going the team's way in 2009, and it's difficult to decipher what's for real and what's not. To help out, lets play a little game of "Legit Or Luck".
Roy Halladay's Dominance
Answer: Legit. The Doc is having another spectacular season. With a K:BB ratio of nearly 8:1, he's well on his way to another run at the Cy Young.
Scott Richmond's Dominance
Answer: Luck. While I do think Richmond will settle in as a solid 4th or 5th starter, that 2.67 ERA is due to inflate.
Aaron Hill's Hot Bat
Answer: Legit. Hill's at an age where giant steps forward with the bat happen, and while his current .352 clip is a tad high, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he was still hitting .320 in September.
Rod Barajas' Hot Bat
Answer: Luck. He's just not a .333 hitter. His power is real, but his batting average will likely end up around the .260-.270 mark.
Scott Downs' ERA
Answer: Legit. Downs has quietly become the Jays best reliever over the past few seasons, and in 2009 he's taken it to a completely new level. In 15.1 innings, he's stuck out twenty and is yet to walk a batter.
Jason's Frasor's ERA
Answer: Luck. He already has four wins, and he's been pitching well, but I foresee a spike in his walk rate sometime soon; the one walk he's allowed in his 11.1 innings doesn't match up with his career numbers.
Adam Lind's Power Surge
Answer: Legit. Lind had a fantastic minor league career, but hadn't put it all together in the majors until now. Now that he's drawing some walks and not hacking at everything that moves, the power should be here to stay.
Marco Scutaro's Power Surge
Answer: Luck. I love the patience he's been showing in the lead-off spot, but as someone with a career high of nine home runs, I don't see him hitting the 20-25 that he's on pace for.
Kevin Millar's Solid Bench Production
Answer: Legit. Millar's a seasoned vet who's always had a potent bat. This potency is magnified in short spurts off the bench, where he should continue to hit.
Jose Bautista's Solid Bench Production
Answer: Luck. He's valuable to have as a utility man, but Bautista's career .242 batting average leads me to believe that the .326 he's currently at can't be sustained.
Will the Jays continue to play this well? While there are some players that are likely to regress over the course of the season (Richmond, Barajas, Scutaro) there are also some players who are likely to improve. There is a chance that with a less injury-riddled rotation and some improvement from guys like Rios and Snider, the good could help cancel out the bad. Which is to say that AL East, watch out. The Jays might just be in this for the long haul. |
