* Projected Record is a formula that takes projected team OPS, starters ERA and relievers ERA into account in order to get a projected runs scored and runs allowed per game. Those figures are then inserted into the Pythagorean record formula.
The Giants followed the early bird get the worm strategy when they signed relievers Jeremy Affeldt, Bobby Howry and Edgar Renteria. All three of those signings looked a lot worse as the winter wore on and free agent prices dropped substantially. I mistakenly labeled the money involved as reasonable, but I didn't see such a lack of interest in free agents and unlike the A's signing of Orlando Cabrera, the Giants didn't lose a pick.
Things got better for the Giants when they signed Randy Johnson, released Dave Roberts and didn't pull the trigger on a trade involving Jonathan Sanchez for an infield slugging bat.
The Giants could have made themselves the NL West favorite by signing Manny Ramirez, but that would have forced the front office to deviate from their overall plans and it didn't seem as though he had a genuine interest in playing for the club anyways.
Adam Dunn would have provided the exact type of bat they need at an affordable price, but the defense and their belief in Pablo Sandoval and Travis Ishikawa negated any interest they might have had. The Giants especially love Sandoval and they think he can be a special hitter.
No Dumb Questions
1. Can Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez become consistent back end starters to push the Giants rotation into the top-3 in baseball?
2. Will Sandoval and Ishikawa be reliable .800+ OPS hitters this season?
3. Are Aaron Rowand and Randy Winn sunk costs in the outfield?
4. Is it possible for Tim Lincecum to duplicate his 2008 Cy Young season?
5. Can the Giants possibly score over 700 runs this season a season after scoring 640?
Maximizing Potential
The Giants pitching staff is ready for October, but their offense is a massive question mark. Their number three hitter, Sandoval, is a 22-year-old with 145 career at bats. Their clean-up hitter, Bengie Molina, is a 34-year-old with a career OPS of .725 (.767 in 2008) and has never hit 20 homers in a season.
Ishikawa and Emmanuel Burriss have looked good this spring and Fred Lewis is a nice piece, but that's four virtually unproven regulars in the line-up, which joins Molina, Winn, Rowand and Renteria. The latter four are veterans on the wrong side of their prime who have each had some All-Star seasons scattered throughout their career, but are far from reliable run producers.
Hitting coach Carney Lansford will need to strike gold with Sandoval and Ishikawa at the corner infield slots and then get the 2005 Winn, 2004 Rowand and 2007 Renteria.
Lincecum will have an ERA under 3.25 so long as he's healthy and I think Cain can lower his ERA to the low 3.00's. Zito finished fairly strong down the stretch in 2008 and is certainly capable of pitching in the low 4.00's, while the Big Unit is getting by very well still on pure stuff alone. Sanchez is the biggest unknown because his strikeout rates are always excellent and is a number three starter waiting to happen if he can reduce his walks.
What Will Likely Happen
The Giants will go from 17th in team ERA up to the top-10, but that offense continues to struggle producing runs. Their bullpen has improved and they will need to have a lot of 2008 Angels kind of luck to win those close games.
Looking up and down that lineup, there isn't a sure .800 OPS of better bat in there, which is something you can't really say about any other team in baseball outside of Seattle.
The 2008 season was year one of post-Barry Bonds to strip the club down and they at least got a Cy Young out of it and with a more aggressive approach they could have been a true favorite this season, but unless Sandoval and Ishikawa exceed expectations and they get a few career years from the vet bats, 2009 will be another transitional year before they compete in earnest in 2010.
They do need to be careful about becoming too patient because arms as dominant as Lincecum and potentially Cain don't come around too often and are what is needed in short October playoff series.
What Do They Have In The Pipeline
The Giants have done a horrible job developing their own positional prospects, but pitching has been a strength over the past few seasons, especially of late in Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez.
Pitching is still a strength in the pipeline with Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson, but Buster Posey figures to be their best homegrown positional player since Matt Williams. Posey is practically a lock to be the starting catcher in 2010 and figures to be the heart and soul of their offense.
Angel Villalona is still young and raw, but he could become an excellent pure slugger on the big league level with a few adjustments.
The past has been bleak, but the Giants' system hasn't looked this good since the mid-1980's.
