| Christopher Reina. 4th December, 2008 - 3:20 pm
 2008 Record: 90-72
2008 Pythagorean Record: 87-75
FIC Rank: 13th
2nd in NL Central, 1st in NL Wildcard
2008 Payroll: $80.9 million, 15th in MLB, 8th in NL
Cost per win: $899k, 9th in MLB, 4th in NL
The Brewers returned to the postseason for the first time since 1982, and although they have a nice young blend of youth in their lineup, the imminent departures of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets will force Doug Melvin into taking a step backwards at the very least. Despite Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, and a host of other talented hitters, the Brewers were middle of the pack in both OPS and runs scored.
On the mound, the Brewers were excellent, coming in 4th in ERA with a mark of 3.85. Unlike the division rival Cubs, they pitched to contact and were bolstered by a .289 BAbip. In order to compensate for the losses of Sabathia and Sheets, Milwaukee looks willing to deal one or more bats to acquire a young ace starter.
* Individual FIC Rank, Season FIC and Reina Value appear in parenthesis next to each player's name.
The FIC is a statistical system that attempts to objectively rank all players, and the Reina Value determines how that performance relates to their contract.
A player with a positive Reina Value outperformed his contract while a negative one means he likely was overvalued.
Catcher
Jason Kendall (304, 97, -42%) is still not the catcher that hits for an OPS in the .800's and is decidedly near the bottom in the category, but he never sits (led the MLB in games started among catchers) and easily threw out the highest percentage of runners that tested him with a percentage of 42.7%.
First Base
Prince Fielder (113th, 183, +1094%) followed up his 50 home run/1.013 2007 with 34 homers and an OPS of .879, drops of 16 and 134 points respectively. These are still, of course, excellent numbers for a slugger, but clearly the expectations on his career lugged towards a more modest plateau. Like his 2007 season, Fielder finished stronger than he started; did he have an adjustment period after becoming a vegan? Still, for any NL team that wants to have Fielder batting cleanup for a decade will have to tolerate a body type that might be cuddly for his wife, but makes him one of the biggest defensive liabilities in the game. The Giants might hope for a move to the AL for the DH if they continue their flirtations.
Second Base
Rickie Weeks (281st, 104, 184%) had a miserably slow start to the season, but he turned it on as the season went along and after the Brewers brought in Durham to give him some competition.
Ray Durham (278th, 105, -60%) seemed to be just about done in 2007, hitting for an OPS of .638, but after decent production for the Giants (.799 OPS in 304 plate appearances) the Brewers acquired him in mid-July. With Milwaukee, he hit .280/.369/.477 and was especially good at Miller Park, hitting for an OPS of 1.027.
Third Base
Bill Hall (1,071st, 2, -92%) had a .898 OPS in 2006 where he looked like one of the best young shortstops in the game, but they tinkered with him by forcing a move to center in 2007 with the addition of J.J. Hardy, and his OPS dropped to .740. This season, he was moved to third base in order to let Ryan Braun play left, and his OPS dropped to .689, 24th among third basemen with at least 400 plate appearances. Hall's primary problem was against righties, hitting .174/.242/.316 against them. The Brewers were forced to platoon Russell Branyan with Hall. Hall was a mess defensively, making 17 errors at third base in just under 900 innings.
Russell Branyan (651st, 37, -55%) played primarily against righties, and he did extremely well, slugging .653 with 12 homers in 118 at bats. Against lefties, he went 0-for-14. His second half was limited by an oblique strain.
Craig Counsell (636th, 39, -86%) began playing a lot of third base against righties as soon as Branyan was unavailable, but his .666 OPS against righties wasn't a much better than Hall's. In total, Counsell hit .226/.355/.302.
Shortstop
J.J. Hardy (226th, 125, +51%) was not an All-Star like he was in 2007, but he had a more consistent season at the plate and was also better defensively. Hardy's season OPS rose 35 points, mainly due to an increase in his on base percentage. Hardy hit a disappointing .609 OPS with runners in scoring position, down from .852 in 2007.
Left Field
Ryan Braun (98th, 190, +1,878%) could not duplicate the .634 slugging percentage of his rookie season, nor could he match his .370 on base percentage, but 116 point drop in OPS still allowed to come in at .888 and a third place finish in NL MVP voting. Braun absolutely crushed lefties in 2007, hitting 15 homers in 111 at bats and a 1.480 OPS. The book became clearer for those southpaws, who limited him to an .873 OPS and just nine homers in 171 at bats; 28 of his 37 homers came against righties. Despite very good production, Braun was frustratingly inconsistent, with three months of OPS totals over .940 and three months under .800 (September was .661 despite his walk off grand slam against Pittsburgh and 8th inning homer against the Cubs on the final day of the season).
Center Field
Mike Cameron (324th, 93, -68%) missed the first 25 games because of his suspension and when he returned he put up a quintessential Mike Cameron year, hitting .243/.331/.477. The rise in his slugging was to be expected after playing in pitcher's parks in San Diego, New York, and Seattle dating back to 2000. He rose his career homer total to 241 with 25 in a Brewers' uniform. This isn't Willie Mays losing homers in Candlestick Park, but it is very safe to believe Cameron would be far closer to 300 had he played his home games elsewhere. Cameron remains a very good hitter against lefties and one of the finer defensive centerfielders in the game.
Gabe Kapler (438th, 69, +19%) stepped off the minor league field where he had been a manager and returned to the big leagues for a season in which he hit for an OPS of .838. His previous career high had been in 2000 with Texas when he hit .302/.360/.473. Kapler was far from great defensively in center, but his offense more than made up for it.
Right Field
Corey Hart (224th, 126, +833%) took a step backwards after hitting .295/.353/.539 in 2007, his first full big league season by hitting just .268/.300/.459. Like Braun, Hart was unable to duplicate his 2007 success against lefties, hitting a .797 OPS against them, compared to 1.032 last season. Hart had a much better second half, however, and was one of Milwaukee's best hitters down the stretch and also in clutch situations, hitting for an OPS of 1.037 with runners in scoring position.
Starting Pitching
Ben Sheets (38th, 238, +9%) made 31 starts, the first time he had at least 30 since 2004. Between 2005 and 2007, Sheets averaged 21 starts per season. He had a .3.09 ERA, 1.150 WHIP and 158 K's in 198.3 innings. Although still not even close to being immune from injuries (he was unable to make a playoff start), 2008 was easily the second best season of Sheets' career after 2004, but there is still a Lake Michigan gap between those two Ben Sheets.
CC Sabathia (2nd, 337, 113%) made baseball remember Rick Sutcliffe's 1984 season when he came over to the Cubs from Cleveland (ironically). Sabathia had a 1.65 ERA and 128 strikeouts in 130.7 innings with the Brewers. He went 11-2, and Milwaukee was 14-3 in his 17 starts with them. Had Milwaukee not migrated over to the AL a decade ago, Sabathia would have been the first back-to-back AL Cy Young award winner since Pedro Martinez won it in 99 and 00.
Dave Bush (136th, 169, +175%) had his best season since he was a ROY candidate with the Jays back in 2004 by posting a 4.18 ERA and 1.141 WHIP. The .238 BAbip is highly improbable to duplicate in 2009, and I expect 2008 to eventually look like Bush's career best season.
Manny Parra (140th, 165, +1,609%) had a 4.39 ERA in his first full season in the majors. His strikeout rate was a more than adequate 147 in 166 innings, but unlike Bush, Parra had a BAbip of .333 and a WHIP of 1.542. Parra was more effective in the first half with splits of 3.78/5.32.
Jeff Suppan (179th, 145, -36%) had a 4.96 ERA in 177.7 innings, good for a 10-10 record. Suppan had a WHIP of 1.542 to go with a yield of 30 homers.
Seth McClung (286th, 103, +283%) made 12 starts and another 25 appearances out of the bullpen. He had a 4.30 ERA overall and a 3.67 mark out of the bullpen.
Yovani Gallardo (744th, 24, -3%) was expected to be one of Milwaukee's key starters, but he tore his ACL and was limited to just 24 innings of work. He only gave up five earned runs, however, in those 24 innings, building upon a promising rookie year in 2007. Even though the small sample size makes it difficult to judge, Gallardo appears vulnerable to facing lefties.
Carlos Villanuea (272nd, 107, +626%) started nine games and came out of the bullpen for another 38. He had a 4.07 ERA but just a 2.12 mark as a reliever. He was pivotal down the stretch, posting a 1.95 ERA in the second half.
Relief Pitching
Salomon Torres (138th, 166, +99%) went out with a bang, becoming Milwaukee's closer following the absolute ineffectiveness of Gagne. He had a 3.49 ERA and saved 28 games for the Brewers although he did blow seven.
Eric Gagne (435th, 70, -90%) was quickly replace as Brewers' closer, and he finished the season with a 5.44 ERA. He blew seven of his 17 save opportunities, and it makes people think that the dominant pitcher of 2002-2004 had an entirely different arm in one way or another.
Guillermo Mota (501st, 60, -82%) had a 4.11 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 57 innings, but he still was marred by inconsistency and struggles against lefties. He did, however, have a 1.59 ERA in the second half.
Brian Shouse (441st, 68, -53%) has had an interesting career that is a story in and of itself, but he turned 40 this season and had a 2.81 ERA as Milwaukee's resident lefty.
David Riske (679th, 33, -90%) largely became known as Sabathia's best friend in baseball. After an impressive season in Kansas City and a consistent career coming out of the bullpen, Riske's ERA ballooned to 5.31 in his 42.3 innings of work. At least in 2008, he was more Jack Haley than Jim Bouton (also a reliever with a career 3.57 ERA).
Mitch Stetter (671st, 34, -20%) had a 3.20 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 25.3 innings, giving Milwaukee another valuable lefty arm out of the pen. |
