| Christopher Reina. 24th November, 2008 - 6:27 pm
 2008 Record: 75-86
2008 Pythagorean Record: 76-85
FIC Rank: 28th
3rd in AL West
2008 Payroll: $47.97 million, 28th in MLB, 13th in AL
Cost per win: $639k, 3rd in MLB, 2nd in AL
Oakland Season Review
The A's fell from 19th in OPS (.745) in 2007 down to dead last with a mark of .686. I had to go back to 2002 and the Randall Simon led Detroit Tigers to find an AL team that had the worst offense (based on OPS) in all of baseball. I don't think there is a pitching staff that could make up for such inadequacies offensively, even though the A's improved three slots in ERA up to 10th without Dan Haren and eventually without Rich Harden and Joe Blaton.
Until Billy Beane traded for Matt Holliday, the direction of the A's was fairly clear- stockpile young talent to build a single wave of affordable players a la the turn of the millennium clubs and the currently successful Rays. Even with Holliday, the A's don't have nearly enough bats to contend with the depth and coin purses of the Angels in 2009, let alone make a run at a Wildcard that will have the second, third, and possibly fourth place AL East clubs looking to monopolize it.
I have learned not to question Billy Beane moves, and instead of dismissing it, I can't wait to see what's next.
* Individual FIC Rank, Season FIC and Reina Value appear in parenthesis next to each player's name.
The FIC is a statistical system that attempts to objectively rank all players, and the Reina Value determines how that performance relates to their contract.
A player with a positive Reina Value outperformed his contract while a negative one means he likely was overvalued.
Catcher
Kurt Suzuki (452nd, 67, +122%) hit for an OPS of .716 and seven homers, his same output in that category as last year, although he had more than twice as many at bats. These are numbers you can live with from a catcher, but it also puts him decided in the latter half at the position. He threw out 36.8% of the runners that tested him, which put him third in the MLB.
First Base
Daric Barton (546th, 52, +11%) couldn't duplicate the success of his 2007 cup of coffee when he had an OPS of 1.068, as he hit just .226/.327/.348. He did finish strong, with a .919 OPS in September, but he must improve dramatically against righties to have any kind of future at this level. Defensively, he made 13 errors and had a .988 fielding percentage, putting him in the territory of Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard, but unlike those sluggers, Barton obviously can't offset those deficiencies at the plate.
Mike Sweeney (694th, 30, -21%) left Kansas City after 1,282 games with the Royals and joined the A's. He hit .286/.331/.397 in 126 at bats before undergoing surgery on his knee. Lost in his eventual release and the injury was that he had a 127 OPS+ during the month of April.
Second Base
Mark Ellis (335th, 91, -60%) saw his OPS drop before .700 for the first time in three seasons as it fell to .694, even though he continued to be one of the best defensive second basemen in the MLB. The biggest cause for his drop in production was how much he struggled against lefties, hitting for an OPS of just .535. A season ago, Ellis hit for an OPS of .984 against lefties. That kind of drop in the course of one season is really unexplainable and extremely rare.
Third Base
Eric Chavez (921st, 10, -97%) played in only 23 games and hit for a disappointing OPS of .688 when he was in the lineup. Billy Beane chose Chavez as the big ticket hitter to build around, and he simply can't stay healthy and produce like he did during those first five years of the decade.
Jack Hannahan (1,133rd, 0, -51%) Only five players in all of baseball since 1901 have hit nine or fewer homers while striking out at least 130 times, but Jack Hannahan is poised to join Rick Monday in that category this season.
Shortstop
Bobby Crosby (649th, 38, -89%) won the ROY back in 2004, but it might have well been a lifetime ago. He took another step forward in 2005 by hitting .802 and dropping his strikeout rate, but he played in fewer than 100 games, the first of three consecutive seasons. Crosby stayed healthy this season and played a decent defensive shortstop, but the A's are finally beginning to show serious signs of tiring of his underachieving.
Left Field
Emil Brown (479th, 62, -46%) was much more of his 2007 vintage when he had an OPS of .647 than 2005 and 2006 when he put up OPS totals of .804 and .815, as he hit .244/.287/.386. This kind of production from a corner outfielder is unacceptable; only three corner outfielders with at least 400 plate appearances (53 total) had an OPS lower than Brown's. Matt Holliday clearly changes the whole equation in left field for Oakland, a position in which their hitters were 21st in OPS (Colorado was first in the category by 48 points over the second slot White Sox).
Center Field
Carlos Gonzalez (1,281st, -18, +0%) was one of the least productive hitters in all of baseball, hitting .242/.273/.361 with 81 strikeouts in 316 plate appearances. His OPS of .634 put him 267th among the 281 batters with at least 300 plate appearances in 2008. He was the centerpiece of the Dan Haren trade and was highly coveted by the Rockies and included in the Holliday deal. He should still become a serviceable player, but he is extremely raw and couldn't hit left-handed hitting to save his life (.454 OPS).
Rajai Davis (647th, 38, +3%) shook off a .161 OPS during his 19 plate appearances with the Giants, moved to the East Bay, and hit .260/.288/.372. His most attractive asset is obviously his legs, and he stole 25 of his 31 attempts.
Right Field
Ryan Sweeney (362nd, 84, +305%) played 75 games in right and 51 in center and with the Gonzalez trade, he will be the everyday guy in center in 2009. He hit .286/.350/.383 and had a decent K/BB rate. Like Gonzalez, Sweeney struggled against lefties, hitting for an OPS of .517.
Travis Buck (768th, 22, -2%) was a long way away from the .851 hitter he was in 2007, dropping 128 points down .723. In 2007, he hit 1.005 against lefties, but that number dropped to .546 this season.
Designated Hitter
Jack Cust (332nd, 92, +388%) set an AL record for strikeouts, breaking Rob Deer's mark of 186 by 13. But he did hit 33 homers and walked 111 times, perfectly following the Adam Dunn/Jim Thome school of hitting. He made a breakthrough against lefties and also finished strong after shaking off a slow start.
Frank Thomas (668th, 35, -97%) escaped Toronto and rejoined the A's, but his season was cut short due to a quad injury. Even still, his .751 OPS was far off the .926 he had back in 2006 when he helped bring the A's to the postseason.
Starting Pitching
Justin Duchscherer (145th, 161, +442%) was in some ways the AL version of Ryan Dempster, successfully moving to the rotation after four seasons stuck in the Oakland bullpen, and he had a 2.54 ERA in 141.7 innings. That same strikeout rate he had in the pen predictably and significantly dropped down to 6.04, which is well on the low end for pitchers with such good ERA's. Duchscherer led the MLB in WHIP among starters with at least 140 innings, largely thanks to an unreal .235 BAbip, also best in the MLB.
Rich Harden (74th, 200, +120%) was dealt to Chicago after Billy Beane played hot potato on a rare streak of good health in which he made 11 consecutive starts with a 2.34 ERA. The pull for Harden was not nearly what it was for Haren and Nick Swisher, and the way he finished the season with Chicago makes the move feel a little premature.
Joe Blanton (143rd, 163, +76%) was dealt shortly after Harden and although he was an innings eater, he was still a 4.96 ERA pitcher that was never going to be a front end pitcher the way many thought he might become when he came up in 2005.
Dana Eveland (163rd, 152, +1,419%) was part of the Haren trade and gave Oakland 29 starts with a 4.34 ERA. He liked the Coliseum, with a home/away split of 3.25/5.63.
Greg Smith (166th, 151, +1,417%) was another left-handed starter to come over from Arizona, and he had a 4.16 ERA, but he only struck out 111 batters in 190.3 innings. Smith also walked 87 batters and yielded 21 homers.
Sean Gallagher (288th, 102, +470%) was included in the Harden trade and made 11 starts for the A's, and while he had almost as many K's as innings, his 5.88 ERA and 1.694 WHIP made his performance decidedly mediocre.
Dallas Braden (454th, 67, +118%) made 10 starts and another nine appearances out of the pen to give Oakland 71.7 innings and a 4.14 ERA. He was actually much better as a starter with a split of 3.97/4.80.
Gio Gonzalez (766th, 22, +1%) came up in August and made seven starts but had a 9.32 ERA in said starts. His six innings of work out of the pen was infinitely more successful as he didn't give up a single run. His split against righties and lefties is problematic/encouraging with marks of 1.034/.580.
Relief Pitching
Brad Ziegler (289th, 102, +618%) threw 39 scoreless innings to begin his career at the ripe old age of 28. He doesn't strike people out, but his sidearm delivery prevents solid contact from being made. Ziegler was vulnerable against lefties, but righties hit for an OPS of just .492 against him.
Huston Street (204th, 134, +35%) lost his closer job to Ziegler, but he still had a decent 3.73 ERA and struck out one fewer batter than he had innings pitched. His ERA hit a high of 4.65 on August 10th, but he managed to get it down with some quality appearances down the stretch.
Joey Devine (389th, 78, +227%) came over in the Mark Kotsay trade and had an extraordinary 0.59 ERA and 49 strikeouts with just 15 walks in 45.7 innings. Devine's 0.59 ERA puts him second in history among pitchers with at least 40 innings, behind Buck O'Brien (0.38) in 1911 and ahead of Dennis Eckersley's 1990 when he posted a mark of 0.61. Devine finished 6th in ROY voting and gave up an OPS of only .312 against righties.
Alan Embree (558th, 50, -86%) had a 4.96 ERA in 61.7 innings, which is a little higher than his career mark of 4.55.
Keith Foulke (722nd, 26, -44%) returned to Oakland after three seasons with the Red Sox and a 2007 in which he didn't pitch at all. He had a 4.06 ERA and 23 K's in 31 innings.
Jerry Blevins (667th, 35, +3%) came up in July and subsequently gave the A's 37.7 innings of work with a 3.11 ERA and 35 K's. He is a real solid lefty arm that the organization is high on for 2009. |
