| Christopher Reina. 17th November, 2008 - 7:35 pm
 2008 Record: 95-67
2008 Pythagorean Record: 95-67
FIC Rank: 1st
2nd in AL East, 1st in Wildcard
2008 Payroll: $133M, 4th in MLB, 2nd in AL
Cost per win: $1.4M, 24th in MLB, 11th in AL
Boston Season Review
The Red Sox finally decided to become inelastic in the way they deal with Manny Ramirez, but they still finished second in the AL in runs and made the playoffs for the fifth time in six seasons. But 162 headaches of Manny was always worth the postseason production, and the Red Sox lineup was missing the same chops as they were held to just one run twice in the ALCS.
Despite the season-ending injury to Curt Schilling, their pitching staff had very good depth with Jon Lester emerging as a legitimate front end starter and Daisuke Matsuzaka improving significantly in his second season. They were fourth in the AL in ERA with a mark of 4.01.
* Individual FIC Rank, Season FIC and Reina Value appear in parenthesis next to each player's name.
The FIC is a statistical system that attempts to objectively rank all players and the Reina Value determines how that performance relates to their contract.
A player with a positive Reina Value outperformed his contract while a negative one means he likely was overvalued.
Catcher
Jason Varitek (1232nd, -6, -96%) had easily his worst offensive season during his 1,330-game career, hitting for an OPS of .672. In Varitek's previous walk year, he helped Boston win their first World Series in 86 years and also hit for an OPS of .872, which was a career high. His offensive decline was particularly on display in the ALCS when he went 1-for-20 while striking out eight times.
Kevin Cash (1,283rd, -18, -13%) was one of the worst hitters in the MLB, striking out 50 times in 142 at bats while posting an OPS of .647.
First Base
Kevin Youkilis (42nd, 228, +333%) is and always will be an embodiment of a high on base hitter, but his career path swerved significantly to a far higher level as he became a slugger during a season in which power numbers declined league-wide. He hit 29 homers and 43 doubles, both career highs with the homer-surge being 13 better than his previous high in 2007. Youkilis was 10th in the MLB in OPS and hit 119 OPS points better at Fenway Park than on the road and 322 points better than he did at home in 2007. He didn't win his second consecutive Gold Glove, but he once again played an excellent first base while also filling in very admirably at third for Lowell.
Mark Kotsay (393rd, 77, -82%) came to Boston late in the season and became their first basemen in the playoffs.
Sean Casey (729th, 26, 51%) didn't hit a homer in 199 at bats, but he did have an OPS of .773 in his part time work and also was a frequent media mouthpiece on a team that has the personality of all the earth they carved out for the Big Dig.
Second Base
Dustin Pedroia (11th, 278, +3401%) is my choice, as shocking as it is even to myself, for AL MVP. He had an OPS of .869, but hit .345/.402/.547 in the second half for a Red Sox team that had been told scoring runs would prove impossibly difficult without Manny in the middle of the lineup. He had an OPS of 1.200 against the Rays in the ALCS as this really started to become his team. Pedroia also played a very good defensive second base, earning him a Gold Glove.
Third Base
Mike Lowell (246th, 118, -70%) had an injury plagued season, beginning with a thumb injury and then a hip that will require offseason surgery. Even if fully healthy, it would have been unrealistic to expect Lowell to match his .324/.378/.501 and World Series MVP campaign of 2007. His OPS dropped 80 points although he did have a better homer rate, hitting 17 in 419 at bats.
Shortstop
Julio Lugo (841st, 16, -96%) also suffered from injuries and his season ended in July with a strained quad. His OPS in 2008 rose to .685 from his career low of .643 in 2007, but he is still a long ways away from his Tampa Bay production.
Jed Lowrie (598th, 45, +5%) became Boston's everyday man with Lugo injured and proved to be a good upgrade, hitting for an OPS of .739 with 25 doubles and three triples in just 260 at bats. He didn't make a single error at shortstop in 386 innings. After a very productive ALDS in which he had a series-clinching walk-off single, he hit just 2-for-18 against Tampa Bay.
Alex Cora (716th, 27, -80%) had his best season at the plate for Boston, hitting .270/.371/.349 and playing a decent enough shortstop.
Left Field
Jason Bay (46th, 224, +110%) was having a fine season in Pittsburgh, hitting for an OPS of .894 with 22 homers before he was plucked into the middle of an AL pennant race as Manny's replacement. He performed well, hitting .293/.370/.527 with nine homers. The Red Sox get one more year to evaluate him first hand before he becomes a free agent. Bay's career OPS at Fenway is .856.
Manny Ramirez (13th, 274, -15%) hit for an OPS of .927 with Boston, including a 1.060 month of July when it was decided that they could no longer coexist.
Center Field
Jacoby Ellsbury (141st, 164, +1542%) stole 50 bases and scored 98 runs, but he came nowhere close to repeating the .903 OPS he had in 116 at bats in 2007, as it dropped to .730. He went 0-for-14 in the ALCS one year after going 7-for-16 in the World Series.
Coco Crisp (303rd, 98, -57%) had his best season in Boston, hitting for an OPS of .751 and making Theo feel fortunate to have been unable to trade him. Crisp came on especially strong in September as he hit .375/.444/.469 and he also had an excellent ALCS with Ellsbury on the skids.
Right Field
J.D. Drew (126th, 173, -46%) vindicated his disappointing 2007 by hitting .280/.408/.519 in his best statistical season since 2005 even though he suffered through a bad back. He hit well in both playoff series after missing most of September.
Designated Hitter
David Ortiz (109th, 186, -38%) very clearly wasn't the same player in 2008 as he battled a wrist and knee injury. His OPS of .876 was his lowest in Boston and first below 1.000 since 2004. He is just now turning 33 and his body type doesn't suggest longevity, but after five straight top-five AL MVP finishes, Ortiz very well could be back to slugging .550 with an OBP of .400 in 2009.
Starting Pitching
Jon Lester (29th, 246, +3281%) threw a no-hitter and became Boston's anchor in the rotation. He had a 3.21 ERA and a very good K/BB rate with 152 strikeouts and 66 walks. He was nearly unhittable against lefties, yielding an OPS of .571 and he truly thrived at Fenway with a 2.49 ERA in 115.2 innings of work. Lester picked up consecutive losses for the first time all season in the ALCS with just too many big hits being given up despite a sharp increase in his K rate. Given how well he pitched and at a fraction of the price, in some respects Boston needs to consider themselves lucky that Lester wasn't dealt to Minnesota in a Johan Santana trade.
Daisuke Matsuzaka (54th, 217, +44%) was one of the AL's most dominant starters, finishing the season with a 2.90 ERA and 154 strikeouts in 167.7 innings. His WHIP remained exactly the same (1.324), but his OPS allowed with runners in scoring position dropped from .696 to .576.
Josh Beckett (92nd, 193, -7%) had some elbow problems and an oblique to make him visibly a different pitcher in 2008, but he still made 27 starts and had a 4.03 ERA while striking out nearly as many batters (172) as he had innings pitched (174.3). The majority of Beckett's rocky outings came at Fenway as he had a split of 5.65/2.85. His career ERA at Fenway is 4.79 and the only park that he has fared worse in with at least five starts on the books is Yankee Stadium.
Tim Wakefield (133rd, 170, +75%) had a 4.13 ERA in 181 innings, which represented a significant improvement from both 2006 and 2007. It was actually even better, with a bad September costing him a few more points on his ERA. His ERA was 2.04 lower at Fenway than it was on the road.
Clay Buchholz (555th, 50, +7%) couldn't build off his late season 2007 no hitter, struggling to a 6.75 ERA in 15 starts. He had almost as many strikeouts as innings, but his WHIP of 1.763 forced him into the stretch entirely too frequently.
Paul Byrd (162nd, 153, -20%) had a 4.60 ERA in 30 combined starts with the Indians and Red Sox. He yielded 31 homers and had a strikeout rate on the low end, but his walks were rare as well.
Bartolo Colon (606th, 43, -55%) had a 4.09 ERA through his first six starts with the Sox until a bad back kept him on the shelf until September. Clearly not even close to the same pitcher as he was when he won the Cy Young, but though his starts were rare, Boston was a pleasant 5-2 in his outings.
Relief Pitching
Jonathan Papelbon (55th, 216, +1448%) was once again one of the best two or three closers in the game and though he wasn't as dominant as he was in 2007 or 2006, he struck out 77 batters in 69.3 innings and had an ERA of 2.34. Since 2006, he has the second best ERA amongst relievers with a mark of 1.70 (Rivera's is 2.12).
Justin Masterson (328th, 92, +413%) had a 3.16 ERA in 88.3 innings during a very fine rookie campaign in which he split time between starting and the pen. His splits were as to be expected with a 3.67 ERA in his nine starts and 2.36 in 34.1 innings of relief work. He isn't a strikeout pitcher, but he did produce at a better rate as a reliever with 29 in those 34.1 innings.
Manny Delcarmen (373rd, 82, +256%) wasn't as good as his 2.05 ERA in 2007, but he made 72 appearances and allowed 27 earned runs while striking out nearly one batter per inning. He was more than a run better at home than he was on the road.
Hideki Okajima (444th, 68, -25%) had another very good season despite an elevation of his ERA from 2.22 to 2.61. He fared better against lefties and at Fenway than he did in his rookie season.
Javier Lopez (484th, 61, -14%) was Boston's other left-handed reliever and had a 2.43 ERA. His K/BB rate remains problematic, but 69.5% of the left-handed batters he faced.
David Aardsma (561st, 49, +5%) keeps getting work despite a career 5.29 ERA in 128 appearances. Aardsma was particularly ineffective at Fenway with his 8.64 ERA.
Mike Timlin (585th, 46, -86%) keeps on ticking, and he will be 43 on Opening Day next season; for the first time since 2002, he will likely pitch somewhere other than Boston. During his six seasons in Boston, he gave the club 409 innings and a 3.76 ERA, one of only 15 relievers to pitch at least 400 innings with an ERA under 4.00. He has given the Red Sox a lot of grit and backbone coming out of the bullpen, but with his ERA at 5.66, he is no longer able to get batters out the way he did in past seasons. |
