| Christopher Reina. 16th October, 2008 - 7:23 pm
 2008 Record: 86-76
2008 Pythagorean Record: 86-76
FIC Rank: 9th
4th in NL Central
2008 Payroll: $99.6 million, 11th in MLB, 5th in NL
Cost per win: $1.16 million, 19th in MLB, 11th in NL
Cardinals Season Review
The Cardinals were second in the NL in OBP (.350), third in slugging (.433), but their makeshift efforts in the rotation (4.20, 12th in baseball) and bullpen (4.17, 20th in baseball) were not enough to get Tony LaRussa's team into the posteason for the seventh time since 2000. It is the first time since 1999 that the Cardinals have missed out on the playoffs in two consecutive seasons.
Just like the Barry Bonds years in San Francisco, any team that has Albert Pujols in the middle of its lineup will score runs and during this time of transition, GM John Mozeliak must find a way to inject some high ceiling under 30 arms into the bullpen. The Cardinals had 31 blown saves, which was tied with the Mariners for dead last in baseball.
I'm not sure overpaying Francisco Rodriguez or even Brian Fuentes is an appropriate response, but something needs to be done even if that means dealing a bat away.
* Individual FIC Rank, Season FIC and Reina Value appear in parenthesis next to each player's name.
The FIC is a statistical system that attempts to objectively rank all players and the Reina Value determines how that performance relates to their contract.
A player with a positive Reina Value outperformed his contract while a negative one means he likely was overvalued.
Catcher
Yadier Molina (365th, 83, -12%) has always been more Jose than Bengie at the plate, but he easily had his best offensive season, hitting .304/.349/.392. Amongst catchers with at least 450 plate appearances, Molina was 8th out of 13 in OPS, ahead of A.J. Pierzynski, Ramon Hernandez and Jason Varitek. While he has become a better hitter against lefties (.860), he continues to struggle against righties (.690).
Jason LaRue (711th, 28, -54%) has been an offensive liability since the 2005 season in which he had an OPS of .807 in Cincinnati. He hit just .213/.296/.348 in 164 at bats.
First Base
Albert Pujols (1st, 365, +102%) was possibly going to miss a good chunk of 2008 because of that lingering elbow issue, but he played through it and was quite easily the game's best hitter, just as he's been during almost all of his eight-year career. Despite the Cardinals' absence from the postseason, he should be a near unanimous selection for NL MVP.
The consistency in which Pujols has produced is incredibly staggering. He had over 100 walks for the first time in his career and his OBP of .462 was a career high. After seeing his slugging percentage drop to .568 in 2007, he brought it back up to .653 with six extra doubles (44) and five extra homers (37).
Pujols led all of baseball in OPS (1.114, new career high) and was one of only three players to have an OPS over 1.000 this season. There were seven in 2007, eight in 2006, five in 2005, nine in 2004, seven in 2003, nine in 2002, 13 in 2001 and 19 in 2000. Pujols has been a member of this club in six of his eight seasons.
He has also continued to become a much better defensive first baseman.
Second Base
Adam Kennedy (564th, 48, -88%) rebounded from a disasterous 2007 in his first year back with the organization that drafted him by raising his OPS 121 points from .572 to .693. After complaining about Tony LaRussa and wanting out of St. Louis, he finished with a very strong September in which he hit .320/.358/.580.
Aaron Miles (428th, 71, -29%) continued to be primarily a singles hitter and elevated his average above .300 (.317) for the first time. He is one of the Cardinals only switch hitters and has a fairly even split from both sides of the plate.
Felipe Lopez (482nd, 61, -85%) was unceremoniously released by the Nationals at the end of July and quickly was signed by the Cardinals. He had one of the best stretches of his career, hitting .385/.426/.538 with four homers in 156 at bats.
Third Base
Troy Glaus (128th, 173, -45%) clearly out hit former Cards' 3B Scott Rolen in 2008, going +16 in homers and +75 in OPS. While he normally kills lefties (.958 career OPS), Glaus hit for an OPS of just .766 this season.
Shortstop
Cesar Izturis (392nd, 77, -56%) was one of the main reasons why the Cardinals easily led the NL in OPS from the 9th spot. He batted ninth in 81 games and hit for an OPS of .628. He continues to be the old school, light hitting shortstop he has been since his call up with Toronto.
Brendan Ryan (822nd, 17, -1%) was given 218 plate appearances in 2008, but hit just .244/.307/.289.
Left Field
Skip Scuhmaker (205th, 134, +1036%) had a drop in slugging in his first full season and an OPS of .765 is far from ideal for an outfielder, but he did a decent job of filling in for Duncan and Ankiel.
Chris Duncan (727th, 26, -10%) had his 2008 ended early by a serious neck injury that could cost him his career. He clearly was not right all season as his slugging percentage dropped from .480 to .365. The .589 slugging with 22 homers in 280 at bats in 2006 when the Cardinals won the World Series seems like a lifetime ago. Along with the injury to Ankiel, the absence of these two left handed bats was a definitive problem for the Cards.
Brian Barton (801st, 19, +0%) made his big league debut this season and hit a decent .268/.354/.392 in limited time.
Center Field
Rick Ankiel (275th, 106, +233%) hit 25 homers in 413 at bats, which was about the same as his HR rate in 2007. He had a sore abdomen for much of the season and eventually ended his season early with a sports hernia. That daunting success he had against lefties in 2007 (1.183 OPS) was not duplicated this season (.717 OPS), but he unsurprisingly improved against righties (.747. to .890).
I was expecting to see Colby Rasmus make it to Busch Stadium this season, but with a .742 OPS in Memphis, the Cardinals decided to wait on starting his big league clock.
Right Field
Ryan Ludwick (57th, 213, +2,820%) went from the unwanted line of the MLB to a .966 OPS, 37 homer machine in 2008. Other than a June where his OPS dipped to .704, he was incredibly consistent, hitting over .941 in every other month and having three months over 1.000. He hit .956 in the cleanup position, providing protection for Pujols. Also impressive was how he fared significantly better in his third at bat versus a starting pitcher. It is rare for a 30-year-old to all of a sudden catch fire like that, but I think he'll have staying power.
Starting Pitching
Kyle Lohse (65th, 208, +165%) had the best season of his career, throwing 200.0 innings with an ERA of 3.78. Neither his WHIP or strikeout rate will ever wow anyone, but his quality start percentage was better than Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Derek Lowe, Ben Sheets, Carlos Zambrano and Daisuke Matsuzaka. He was rewarded with a $41 million deal over four years.
Todd Wellemeyer (82nd, 197, +900%) also helped fill in the front end of the rotation void left by the Chris Carpenter injury by posting a 3.71 ERA in 191.7 innings. He was much better in the second half, improving his ERA and strikeout rate though he continues to be prone to the long ball.
Braden Looper (114th, 182, +45%) lowered his ERA 78 points to 4.16 in his second season as a converted starter. Like Wellemeyer, Looper gives up far too many homers, but he keeps his walks down and finished 2008 strong. He is a free agent this winter.
Adam Wainwright (164th, 152, +773%) was clearly the Cardinals' best pitcher when he was healthy. He was forced out of all of July and parts of June and August due to a finger injury, but when was on the mound, he threw a 3.20 ERA and excellent 1.182 WHIP. He still needs to become a better pitcher on the road, but could win 18-20 games in 2009 if he can make 34 starts.
Joel Pineiro (225th, 126, -26%) was healthy enough to make 25 starts, but had a very modest 5.15 ERA.
Chris Carpenter (894th, 11, -96%) made just four starts in 2008 after making just one in 2007 following Tommy John surgery. He has been dealing with a recurring nerve problem in his shoulder. He was as brilliant as ever in those 15.3 innings, pitching to an ERA of 1.76.
Relief Pitching
Ryan Franklin (232nd, 123, +78%) became a closer for the first time in 2008, filling in for Isringhausen. He had a 3.55 ERA and 17 saves, but he blew eight. The lack of a lights out closer was common for the other Wildcard contenders in Milwaukee and New York and could have made a difference of LaRussa had a consistent game ender.
Jason Isringhausen (514th, 57, -94%) has saved 284 games since 2000 when he became the A's closer. That puts him third in the time span behind just Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman. The end of the road may have finally hit for Isringhausen as he deals with a variety of elbow problems. He had a nice bounce back season in 2007 after a 2006 in which his ERA elevated to 3.55 and he wasn't able to pitch in the postseason. In 2008, he had a 5.70 ERA in 42.7 innings.
Russ Springer (508th, 58, -86%) has hit a fountain of youth since rejoining the Cardinals in 2007. He had a 2.18 ERA last season and a 2.32 mark this season while continuing to strike out batters at an impressive clip. He is pitching 200 points better than his career average despite being on the doorstep of 40.
Ron Villone (550th, 51, -28%) had a 4.86 ERA in 74 appearances out of the bullpen. The former starter still knows how to pitch to lefties, as they hit just .176/.311/.318 against him this season.
Kyle McClellan (458th, 65, +118%) made his debut in 2008 and was one of the only young arms coming out of the bullpen. He had a 4.04 ERA, but was awful in August and September.
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM |
