| Craig Castille. 28th July, 2008 - 5:06 pm
 As the Tampa Bay Rays enter into the dog days of August and thus officially participate in their first pennant race, several issues may become paramount to their success.
The beauty of the 162 game regular season is that all warts become exposed, and rarely can a team keep winning an excessive amount of games without having the balance needed to contend with their two legendary and wealthy division rivals.
No pretenders allowed. And especially not in the AL East.
The first half of the season saw the Rays surprise all of baseball with a consistent and sometimes blazing start, peaking with a won/loss record of 55-32 just prior to the All Star break. During that start they beat the best in their own division (Red Sox, Yankees), the best in the AL (Angels), and the best in the NL (Cubs) in an impressive fashion.
The Rays suffered the ups and down of injuries (Kazmir, Garza, Navarro, Pena), all spending at least 15 days on the DL, but persevered through it all by having different players step up with clutch performances almost on a nightly basis.
But magic only lasts so long. Remember, this is the AL East.
Struggles at the plate have haunted Carlos Pena (46 hr in 2007), and BJ Upton (6 hr in 2008) so far this season. Together, the two have left a gaping hole in run production of late, leaving the rest of the lineup to fend for itself. Evan Longoria has had his difficulties often but has had several hot streaks, thus keeping the middle of the lineup from completely disappearing.
Despite the won loss record (17-15), the team performance against left handed pitching has been abysmal. With the exception of light hitting Jason Bartlett (.325, LH), the Rays fail to provide a hitter batting above .270 against southpaws. The middle of the lineup producers are struggling to hit their weight (Pena, .205, Longoria, .239, Gomes, .186, Floyd, .175, Upton , .264) against lefties.
This alone is cause for concern until one examines the Rays' performance with runners in scoring position (risp). Only Dionner Navarro has been productive in this area (.307, risp) while other expected run producers continue to struggle badly in this area (Pena, .265, Longoria, .239, Upton, .265, Crawford, .275). Last season both Crawford and Upton were very productive with risp at .314 and .343 respectively.
Pitching remains fairly consistent but not dominant as it had been. Troy Percival has battled hamstring problems along velocity issues on back to back nights. Depth in the bullpen remains adequate with the likes of Grant Balfour and the ever steady Dan Wheeler should Percival continue to have problems.
But the pitching may be good enough as is.
Team defense has been shaky of late, but much of that can be attributed to the loss of Jason Bartlett to a stint on the DL.
The question for the Rays now is what to do. The trade deadline is fast approaching, and the Rays appear to be staying as is. The cost of acquiring a steady right fielder such as Xavier Nady was apparently too much for now and pragmatically will probably turn out to be the correct decision.
But one thing is clear, that being the Rays will need better and more consistent production with runners in scoring position. Securing a solid right handed bat may help matters against left handed pitching, but that doesn't appear likely and still doesn't solve what the heart of the matter is.
Hitters bearing down and getting focused while attempting to drive in runs with men in scoring position will solve many of the problems. Capitalizing on scoring situations early on in games will be critical for this team's success. This has been a significant team failure of late.
Taking advantage of runners on second and third and nobody out by executing solid fundamentals at the plate will keep the pressure off this young pitching staff. Rays' starters face too many games that are tied 1-1 in the 6th inning, and it's only a matter of time before that wears thin on a defense and pitching staff.
And should any sort of meltdown occur, it can be traced back to performance with runners in scoring position. The question now should be, "is this a trend, or is this an identity? "
We'll all find the answer during the last 60 days of the season. |
