| Kyle Conner. 1st April, 2008 - 5:55 pm
 Lost in all the talk of the epic collapse of the New York Mets in the National League East in 2007 and the white hot play of the Philadelphia Phillies down the stretch to catch and overtake them by one game on the last day, was the fact that the Phillies were statistically one of the worst pitching teams in the history of baseball to ever make the postseason.
In the National League, only the 1995 Colorado Rockies with a 5.05 team ERA were a worse team statistically than the Phillies’ 4.73 team ERA in 2007. Playoff teams with ERA's in the high fours are a little bit more common in the American League but still a bit of a rarity. The worst pitching team to ever make the playoffs was the 1996 Orioles with a 5.15 ERA. The ‘98 and ‘99 Rangers (5.00 and 5.07 respectively), ‘99 Indians (4.90), ‘97 Mariners (4.79), ‘00 Yankees (4.76), and ‘05 Red Sox (4.74) are the only other teams to make the postseason with worse team ERA's than the Phllies. Of that group, only the ‘96 Orioles and ‘00 Yankees advanced past the Wild Card round, with the Yankees as the only team to win a World Series.
So for the Phillies to not only defend their NL East division championship but to take the next step with this group of players, they need improved performances from their pitching and in particular their starting pitching. Most of the inflated team ERA from 2007 came at the hands of the back end of the rotation. Jamie Moyer in 33 starts only managed a 5.02 ERA. Adam Eaton posted a lofty 6.31 in 30 starts. Freddy Garcia (5.90 in 11 starts) and Jon Lieber (4.73 in 11 starts and two relief appearances) also contributed to that inflated team total.
As a response to those struggles of last season, the Phils shifted starter-turned-closer Brett Myers back to the rotation this off-season after the acquisition of former Astros' closer Brad Lidge. The hope here seems to be that staff ace Cole Hamels paired with Myers will not only create a formidable one-two punch that will stabilize the rotation but also will be a match for the other top tier starters in the division: Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez of the Mets (although technically, the Phillies' move was made in advance of the Mets acquiring Santana) and John Smoltz and Tim Hudson of the Braves.
Now, let’s just say for the sake of argument that Hamels/Myers, Santana/Martinez, and Smoltz/Hudson are a wash (which is probably giving Hamels/Myers a little bit too much credit, Santana not enough, not factoring in Martinez‘s injury concerns, and growing questions about Smoltz‘s durability -- but it‘s a starting point). The back-end for the Mets still boasts John Maine, a 15-game winner with a high three ERA who posted a 0.94 K/IP ratio last season; Oliver Perez, another 15-winner, another high three ERA, and another near 1:1 K/IP ratio; and Mike Pelfrey, who was only the highest rated pitching prospect of the 2005 draft.
It doesn’t get much easier with Atlanta. Tom Glavine, who for all his criticism in New York last season, still managed to post a 15-8 record and throw 200 innings for the 14th time in his career, anchors the three spot there. Mike Hampton, who only went 27-17 with an ERA around four in his two full seasons in Atlanta before undergoing consecutive elbow surgeries, returns to the team’s 4th spot, and the indications from early this spring is that he‘s close to 100%. Jair Jurrjens, a 22-year old prospect equally as impressive as Pelfrey for the Mets and rated the Braves’ best minor league pitching prospect by Baseball America this offseason, rounds out their rotation.
Can the Phillies counter their rivals with Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton, and Kyle Kendrick, whether or not the Phillies' pitching can match up let alone hold up with an aging Moyer and injury-prone Eaton, is a burning question. And the answer may be scary for Phillies' fans.
Moyer only managed a 5.02 ERA last season. But of more concern is his paltry 0.66 K/IP split last season (which alarmingly is still the third best ratio in terms of the Phillies' rotation this season) combined with a 1.45 WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched). While he did still manage 14 wins, throwing a 45 year old starter everyday is pretty much uncharted waters. Generally speaking, most pitchers in baseball start to decline in their late 30s/early 40s. So for Moyer to actually improve on the numbers he posted last season, which would seem a necessity for the Phillies, is somewhat shocking.
Compared to Adam Eaton, though, Moyer is a Cy Young candidate this season. Eaton was statistically the worst pitcher in baseball last season. A 6.31 ERA in 161.2 innings, a worse K/IP ratio than Moyer (0.60), a mind-numbing 1.63 WHIP, and a performance down the stretch so poor the Phillies chose to leave him off the postseason roster. About the only encouraging statistic regarding Eaton from last season was a 2-0 record and 3.86 ERA in four starts versus the Mets. To make matters worse, this off-season Eaton had to have his shoulder evaluated and has already complained about having a bad back this spring. So to get anything productive out of Eaton long-term at this point would be somewhat shocking.
On the surface, Kyle Kendrick actually had a pretty good season. After all, he posted a 10-4 record and 3.86 ERA after his call up from AA-Reading last season. Kendrick did ok on walks as well, issuing 25 free passes in his 121 innings of work. The issue with Kendrick is his complete lack of an out pitch. His 0.40 K/IP ratio sets off immediate concerns. Now, Kendrick spent most of this spring working on a changeup, hoping that it will give him another weapon, but whether it will produce a noticeable improvement is anyone’s guess. Combining that ratio with Kendrick’s near 1:1 H/IP ratio (129 hits in 121 innings) and depending on Kendrick as a significant part of the rotation would seem on paper to be like dancing through a minefield. The bottom line is hitters will get on base, and he does not have the pitches to strike batters out in those jams. So unless Kendrick has developed something in the off-season we have not seen yet, his outlook is questionable.
As the season gets underway, it’s clear the Phillies are running third in the NL East arms' race at least for now, and a distant third at that. It’s not that they have to have the best pitching staff in the division. The fact that Phillies led the league in runs scored last season shows that they have an offense more than capable of picking up their pitching. But they have to close the gap somewhere along the way this season. Maybe Kendrick repeats his success of last season. Maybe Moyer can shave about a half run off his ERA, which would make him a more than respectable 4th or 5th starter. Eaton is likely a lost cause, but the Phillies seem to have high hopes for the currently rehabbing Kris Benson, a free agent signing this off-season who projects to be ready by May. Perhaps he fills that void. But if things play out as they project, the Phillies’ dazzling offense won’t be enough to save the team from its sinking pitching staff. |
