| Christopher Reina. 27th March, 2008 - 7:03 pm
 The Mets were easily the most talented team to not qualify for the playoffs in 2007 due to their September collapse where they blew a seven game lead and lost 13 of their final 17 games.
It can't be categorized as a knee-jerk move, but they paid a very heavy price to acquire Johan Santana and instead of the collapse being the spring story, the game?s most dominant pitcher was on display.
2007 Record: 88-74
2007 Pythagorean Record: 86-76
Team FIC Batting: 9.07 per game (5th overall)
Team FIC Pitching: 9.71 per game (7th overall)
Click here for more information about the Field Impact Counter and the Reina Value
What Happened Last Season
At the plate: The Mets were fourth in the NL in runs and third in OBP, but were decidedly underperformed in clutch situations.
David Wright had a just miss MVP season, leading the team in batting, OBP and slugging (.325/.416/.546). While his numbers at the plate continue to improve, he also stole 34 bases (previous high was 20) and won a Gold Glove.
Jose Reyes had an identical .354 OBP as he did the season before, but he hit seven fewer homeruns and five fewer triples. He did steal 14 more bases and scored just three fewer runs. Famously, Reyes struggled down the stretch, posting a .612 OPS and stealing just five bases.
Carlos Beltran?s OPS dropped from .982 down to .878 though it is of course well ahead of his initial season with the Mets when he was a .744 hitter. His K/BB ratio was 1.61, which was of course much worse than his 1.04 in 2006.
Carlos Delgado also had a poor K/BB rate and only hit 24 homers. Shawn Green had a .773 OPS and in the other corner Moises Alou had a very good .341/.392/.524, but was limited to just 87 games.
On the mound: Despite getting just five starts from Pedro Martinez, the Mets had an above average pitching staff, posting a 4.26 ERA.
Oliver Perez and John Maine both went 15-10 with a 3.56 ERA and 3.91 respectively. Perez struck out 8.85 batters per nine innings while Maine led the club with a 1.272 WHIP.
The very veteran tandem of Tom Glavine and Orlando Hernandez were healthy and productive. Glavine threw a team-high 200.3 innings and Hernandez had a 3.72 ERA in his 147.7 innings.
When Martinez returned, he had a 2.57 ERA and struck out 32 batters in 28 innings, showing that he had recovered from his rotator-cuff surgery.
The bullpen posted a 4.03 ERA in 511.2 innings of work.
Billy Wagner saved 24 games and had a 2.63 ERA. Aaron Heilman and Pedro Feliciano were both very good again while Scott Schoenewise and Guillermo Mota struggled.
What Happened In The Offseason
If the winter of 2006 was one of supreme disappointment after the Mets were defeated by the Cardinals in Game 7 of the NLCS, the winter of 2007 was positively grim after they blew that seven-game lead in September
But trading for the game?s best starting pitcher alleviates the pain and gives legitimate reason to feel optimistic again.
Johan Santana makes winning in the regular season and postseason all the easier.
Glavine decided to return to Atlanta, Lo Duca was allowed to walk, Green retired and they gave Mota away to the Brewers.
They also dealt former top prospect Lastings Milledge to Washington for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider.
Finally, they re-signed second baseman Luis Castillo.
What Could Happen This Season
At the plate: The Mets lineup isn?t in vogue the way it is down the Turnpike in Philadelphia, but you still have three potential MVP candidates in Reyes, Beltran and especially Wright.
The real questions are in the bottom half of the lineup when you get to an often-injury Alou and the rapidly declining Delgado. If Delgado can?t get his slugging back up above .500, they will have some serious problems stranding runners.
Maybe Fernando Martinez even makes a second half appearance if Alou continues to be unavailable especially if he?s as impressive in the minors as he was last year.
On the mound: The Mets have the two starters with the best ERAs since 2002 in Santana (2.92) and Pedro (3.05).
Santana changes the equation of any pitching staff and a workhorse ace that can carry a load is what they were missing last season. Maine and Perez are both very talented and could improve their 2007 numbers, though the latter has struggled this spring.
Martinez may not his 90 all season long and will only pitch five or six innings per game, but he is the craftiest pitcher I?ve ever seen and his arm will force him to be at his most cunning.
I don?t trust Wagner in crucial situations and his enjoyment of calling out teammates is a distraction, but he has unquestionably been one of the most consistent closers in the game over the few seasons. Since 2001, only Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan have lower ERAs than his 2.22 amongst closers who have saved at least 100 games.
What Should Happen This Season
Unlike the complacency they played with at times last year, nothing will be taken for granted in 2008. There is a sense of unfinished business that permeated through their offseason and will continue throughout the summer.
Their lineup has become overlooked, so scoring runs should be no problem and the addition of Santana gives their staff sharper teeth even when he isn?t on the mound.
Since Atlanta has improved and Philadelphia has had some of their cockiness confirmed, the path to the playoffs is decidedly more difficult than it has been in the past two seasons, but it will take sub-par seasons from multiple players to miss the playoffs again, even if they have to get there via the Wildcard.
Five biggest questions
1. The Mets had four five-game losing streaks in 2007, will Santana become their resident slump-buster?
2. Can Delgado bounce back?
3. Will Pedro be healthy for 25+ starts?
4. Can they continue to hit the gas for 162 games even if they get off to a fast start again?
5. The Mets went 6-12 against the Phillies in 2007, can they fare better this season?
Prediction: 93-69
More 2008 Season Previews
- Los Angeles Angels
- Atlanta Braves
- Washington Nationals
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Miwaukee Brewers
- Seattle Mariners
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Cleveland Indians
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Detroit Tigers
- San Francisco Giants
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of the Reina Value. |
