| Christopher Reina. 27th March, 2008 - 12:22 am
 When a team gives up more runs than it scores and still makes the playoffs, a lot of things must have gone right at opportune times. The Diamondbacks were 32-20 in one-run games and especially good at home (50-31).
2007 Record: 90-72
2007 Pythagorean Record: 79-83
Team FIC Batting: 5.86 per game (25th overall)
Team FIC Pitching: 10.01 per game (5th overall)
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What Happened Last Season
At the plate: The Diamondbacks were last in the NL in OBP (.321), batting (.250) and second to last in runs scored (712). But Bob Melvin?s lineup was extremely clutch; posting a .816 OPS in those situations compared to their season OPS of .734 (compare to a team like the Phillies who had a .771 OPS in the clutch and .812 for the season).
Eric Byrnes was their inspirational leader, having a career season of .286/.353/.460 while stealing a staggering 50 bases in 57 attempts.
Chris Young was 4th in NL ROY voting and hit a team-high 32 homeruns but had a .295 OBP as he struck out 141 times. Fellow rookie Mark Reynolds became a 16th round gem, posting a very nice .844 OPS at third base.
Stephen Drew had a worse than expected sophomore season by hitting .238/.313/.370.
Connor Jackson?s at bats were limited due to the presence of Tony Clark and hit 15 homeruns (1 in every 27.6 at bats). Jackson was much better against lefties, posting a .958 OPS compared to .785 against righties.
Chris Snyder had a breakout season, hitting .252/.342/.433 while being one of the better defensive catchers in the game.
Pitcher Micah Owings had a 1.032 OPS with four homers in 60 at bats.
On the mound: Brandon Webb kept throwing a heavy ball to the tune of a 3.01 ERA, but the depth behind him was decidedly average.
Doug Davis had a 4.25 ERA in 192.7 innings and Owings had a 4.30 ERA.
Randy Johnson threw just 56.7 innings but had a 3.81 ERA.
Jose Valverde had 47 saves and a 2.66 ERA in 64.3 innings.
The D-Backs had an awesome bullpen supporting Valverde in Brandon Lyon (2.68), Juan Cruz (3.10,) and Tony Pena (3.27). These are the true names behind the run discrepancy explanation.
What Happened In The Offseason
Josh Byrnes acquired Dan Haren from Oakland to boost their top-heavy rotation.
He also dealt Valverde for Chad Qualls, Chris Burke, and Juan Gutierrez.
To add a veteran bat to a young outfield, Byrnes signed Trot Nixon.
Tony Clark and Hernandez left via free agency.
What Could Happen This Season
At the plate: Byrnes doesn?t decline too dramatically while Drew and Jackson improve dramatically.
Hudson and Snyder are reliable to perform in the same strata as last year.
Young reduces his strikeout rate, thus raising his average, and Upton shows flashes of becoming the perennial All-Star everyone expects him to be.
On the mound: The price for Haren was steep, and he wasn?t the same pitcher in the second half (4.15 ERA/.813 OPS against) as he was in the first (2.30/.583), so which one will land in Arizona? He won?t get as significant of an improvement as you typically see when a pitcher goes AL to NL because Oakland is a pitcher?s park, and the AL West isn?t exactly known as a hitter?s division.
Webb has been extraordinarily durable since his 2003 call-up and is virtually assured of having a sub-3.25 ERA.
Lyon is the new closer and adjusts well to the higher-pressure situations.
What Should Happen This Season
Arizona?s lineup interests me much more than their rotation. Webb and Harden will be very good, but I prefer the rotations in the Gaslamp and Chavez Ravine. They don?t have great depth and will need superb seasons from their bullpen again.
But with young bats like Upton, Young, Drew, Reynolds, and Jackson, Arizona is building a very special offense that will be terrifically balanced; it?s just a question of whether or not they are ready to uptick their numbers across the board.
The four NL West teams not in San Francisco will be clustered together but I fear Arizona will draw the shortest straw.
Five biggest questions
1. Will the depth behind Webb and Haren be strong enough?
2. How unlucky will they fare in comparison to last season?
3. How good can Upton become at just 20 years old?
4. Will Byrnes be even half as productive as last season?
5. How will the bullpen fare without Valverde anchoring?
Prediction: 84-78
More 2008 Season Previews
- Los Angeles Angels
- Atlanta Braves
- Washington Nationals
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Miwaukee Brewers
- Seattle Mariners
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Cleveland Indians
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Detroit Tigers
- San Francisco Giants
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of the Reina Value. |
