| Christopher Reina. 25th March, 2008 - 10:55 pm
 The Padres became the first MLB team since the ’99 Cincinnati Reds to go home early due to the dreaded one-game playoff. While San Diego waited for Matt Holliday to touch home, the Padres remade many elements of their club and could be even better in 2008.
2007 Record: 89-74
2007 Pythagorean Record: 89-74
Team FIC Batting: 9.80 per game (3rd overall)
Team FIC Pitching: 5.80 per game (27th overall)
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What Happened Last Season
At the plate: Adrian Gonzalez continued to be one of the best kept secrets in the game, posting a .282/.347/.502 season but a .928 OPS on the road versus .760 at home. Gonzalez is also a little bit of publicity away from winning a Gold Glove at first. To think that Kevin Towers acquired Gonzalez and Chris Young for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka is remarkable.
Brian Giles’ slugging went back over .400, but his OBP went down in turn; he is now two full seasons removed from his .906 OPS year in San Diego and well removed from the three 1.000+ seasons he had in Pittsburgh. As with Gonzalez, and everyone on the Padres for that matter*, you have to look at his home versus away numbers (.665 OPS at Petco/.870 on the road).
* The club had a .688 OPS in home games and .773 on the road.
Khalil Greene became a power hitter, knocking out 27 homeruns though his OBP was .291.
Mike Cameron and Kevin Kouzmanoff had comparable seasons, .242/.328/.431 and .275/.329/.457 respectively.
Milton Bradley was a key addition before his freakish injury late in the season hitting 11 homers in 42 games.
On the mound: Jake Peavy and Chris Young were outright dominant for the Padres, who had the lowest ERA in the NL (3.70).
Young yielded an MLB best .578 OPS, and Peavy was right behind him with .584. But Peavy was the superior pitcher and the Cy Young. He threw 223.3 innings of 2.54/1.061 baseball with a 9.67 K/9 ratio.
Young took a big step forward in 2007, dropping his ERA from 3.46 to 3.12, which was in no small part due to his improvement in HR rate from a very bad once every 23.2 at bats to every 61.6 at bats.
Beyond the big two, Greg Maddux was his normal post-prime self with a low walk rate and an ERA of 4.14.
Justin Germano returned to San Diego and had a 4.46 ERA in 133.3 innings, and Daivd Wells had a disappointing 5.54 ERA in 118.7 innings.
Their bullpen was a crucial weapon once again for the Padres, as relievers carried a 3.06 ERA over 549.2 innings. Trevor Hoffman wasn’t a Cy Young candidate the way he was in 2006, but he had an ERA in the 2.00’s (2.98) for the 6th consecutive season and saved 42 games.
Even though Scott Linebrink was traded, Heath Bell was a 2.02 ERA in 93.7 inning workhorse, as were Doug Brocail, Cla Merideth, and Kevin Cameron.
What Happened In The Offseason
Towers, one of the finest GM's in the game, let Cameron, Bradley, Marcus Giles, and Brocail walk in free agency.
He acquired SoCal native Jim Edmonds without giving up anything more than infield prospect David Freese.
Tadahito Iguchi was signed to a one-year contract at an affordable $3.85 million to play second base.
Also added was Randy Wolf, who can make as much as $9 million.
Most interestingly, they signed Mark Prior to a one-year deal worth just $1 million although it could reach $3 million in incentives. He has looked good in spring bullpen sessions and should be ready to make his Padres’ debut in May.
What Could Happen This Season
At the plate: Gonzalez doesn’t put up the staggering numbers needed to win an MVP but reaches .900 OPS as he puts more balls in play and improves his OBP.
Kouzmanoff had a .890 second half last year and is primed for an outstanding breakout season.
Giles enjoys battling leadoff and the knee stays healthy while Edmonds, who is already hurt, has a revival of sorts in the warm weather of San Diego.
Iguchi and Green combine to hit 30 homeruns up the middle.
On the mound: Peavy has to be considered the favorite to win the Cy Young again and is looking to improve his change of speeds in 2008. Considering where he pitches, he is the surest bet to have a sub-3.00 ERA in all of baseball.
Young should continue to be an above average starter, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he declined somewhat from his 2007 performance, particularly due to his propensity for injury.
Maddux should be as solid and consistent as ever, and Wolf has looked good in Spring Training and should be plenty solid enough as a number four starter.
The potential for Prior to return to action healthy could really give San Diego that third dominant starter which virtually no team in baseball currently has.
They also do a better job in preventing stolen bases something that was entirely too common last year.
What Should Happen This Season
Unlike the rest of their NL West rivals, the Padres are a safe bet to be in contention in late September. They have such dominant front end pitching and are so good at home, that winning at least 84 games seems like a lock. Their ceiling, however, will be determined by the health and quality of their lineup. They have some talented young pieces (Gonzalez and Kouzmanoff) as well as veterans (Giles and Edmonds), so can they score more than 4.57 runs per game in 2008?
Five biggest questions
1. Will the Padres’ hitters continue to improve?
2. Can Edmonds get healthy and productive?
3. What would even a shadow of ’03 Prior mean to their rotation?
4. Will the Padres fare as well against NL West foes as they did in 2007?
5. Can the Padres improve on their .732 (6th worst) OPS?
Prediction: 90-72
More 2008 Season Previews
- Los Angeles Angels
- Atlanta Braves
- Washington Nationals
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Miwaukee Brewers
- Seattle Mariners
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Cleveland Indians
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Detroit Tigers
- San Francisco Giants
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of the Reina Value. |
