| Christopher Reina. 14th March, 2008 - 9:37 pm
 The Washington Nationals very well might have the slickest hats to come along since the Giants and Dodgers moved to California, but their play on the field since moving from Montreal in 2005 has been simply horrible.
As the Nationals continue to collect more rescue projects, will it result in more wins on the field?
2007 Record: 73-89
2007 Pythagorean Record: 70-92
Team FIC Batting: 5.92 per game (26th overall)
Team FIC Pitching: 8.03 per game (30th overall)
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What Happened Last Season
At the plate: No team scored fewer runs in the MLB than the Nationals with their 673, which isn?t surprising when looking at their .390 slugging and .325 on-base percentage.
Dmitri Young returned to the All-Star game for the first time since 2003 and resurrected his career by being named the NL?s Comeback Player of the Year. Young posted a very nice .320/.378/.491 season. Mysteriously, he loved RFK, posting a .982 OPS compared to .773 on the road.
Ryan Zimmerman continued to kill lefties (1.103 OPS) but struggled against right-handed pitchers and really didn?t take the step forward that many were forecasting. He started 2007 extremely slow but slugged .486 in the second half while not going out of the strike zone as much.
Austin Kearns reduced his strikeout rate but also dropped in slugging from .467 in 2006 to .411 last year. Much of that has to be due to playing at RFK (like so many other Nationals? batters other than Young) as he was .378/.454 on the road and .330/.695 at home.
Felipe Lopez had a .660 OPS, Ronnie Belliard had a .759, Nook Logan?s was .649, and Brian Schneider?s was .662, making the Nationals impossibly weak up the middle.
Nick Johnson broke his leg and missed the entire 2007 season.
On the mound: The Nationals posted a 4.58 ERA (10th in the NL,) and Jon Rauch (reliever with 88 appearances) led the club in wins with eight. It is hard for starters to get wins, however, when starters only provide 856 innings of service, fewest in the NL.
John Patterson only made seven starts and missed nearly the entire season due to elbow inflammation, putting his 3.13 ERA 2005 even further in the past and less likely to ever be duplicated.
Shawn Hill was plenty serviceable with his 3.42 ERA/1.140 WHIP in 16 starts but battled injuries in June and July.
Matt Chico came the closest to 200 innings (167) and had a 4.63 ERA while Jay Bergmann had a 4.45 ERA in 115.3 innings. Mike Bacsik gave up homeruns at a rate of 1.98 per nine innings (second worst among pitchers with 100 innings) and eight multi-homerun outings.
Chad Cordero had another fine season, saving 37 games with a 3.36 ERA despite a K/BB ratio of 2.14, which, of course, is far from the elite levels of 5.50 or higher than the Jonathan Papelbons and Mariano Riveras post or the 3.59 that he had in 2005 when he finished 5th in Cy Young voting.
What Happened In The Offseason
Perhaps encouraged by how Young resurrected his career in Washington, Bowden acquired Lastings Milledge and avoided signing any high priced free agents (was rumored to be in the Andruw Jones market).
To acquire Milledge, they yielded Ryan Church and Schneider.
The Nationals traded for Elijah Dukes at a price of left hander Glenn Gibson.
They also signed catcher Paul Lo Duca and Johnny Estrada after the Mets decided they didn?t want either of them.
Odalis Perez was signed to a minor league contract, becoming a player given a (near) final shot by the Nationals.
What Could Happen This Season
At the plate: How many reclamation projects does it take to not finish the MLB last in runs? We find out this season as Milledge continues his torrid spring and puts up a stat line that matches what nearly every scout sees when he?s at the plate.
Guzman returns from injuries and continues his own productive March.
Dukes takes advantage of the Wily Mo Pena injury and combines his unseemly power with a less unseemly off the field life.
The Boone Bros. have one final productive go around in limited time.
But most importantly, Ryan Zimmerman sees more pitches, gets on base more frequently, hits more long bases, and becomes that All-Star third baseman he is expected to become.
On the mound: The Nationals rely less on their bullpen and get double-digit wins from two starters.
Patterson has a healthy 2008 and returns to his 2005 form.
Tim Redding figures himself out for more than one consecutive games, Perez finds his stuff again, and Hill jukes the injury bug.
Joel Hanrahan finds a home in the bullpen with his tremendous velocity and carries over his 12 K?s, 1 BB, 0 runs in 7.2 innings during Spring Training to date.
What Should Happen This Season
The Nationals were wise to avoid the free agency game because this team is three or four serious pieces away from coming anywhere close to competing. Their farm system is decimated, but they are younger and more talented right now than they were last year.
The 4th and 5th slots in the NL East are unequivocally reserved for Washington and Florida.
Five biggest questions
1. Will Milledge turn into a massive steal, or will he remain an overhyped New York prospect?
2. Can they get 900+ innings from their starters?
3. Can their offense score 725+ runs?
4. Does Zimmerman have his first (of many) All-Star seasons?
5. Will the new park give them a boost of energy in close games?
Prediction: 75-87
More 2008 Season Previews
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Miwaukee Brewers
- Seattle Mariners
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- San Francisco Giants
- Cleveland Indians
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Detroit Tigers
- San Francisco Giants
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of the Reina Value. |
