| Christopher Reina. 13th March, 2008 - 4:35 pm
 The Milwaukee Brewers were an early success story but faded down the stretch and finished just two games behind the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central despite having a superior total FIC per game (17.24 to 16.35) and the highest of any team that didn?t make the playoffs.
With their young team one year older, will the Brewers make the playoffs for just the second time in their history and the first since 1982?
2007 Record: 83-79
2007 Pythagorean Record: 83-79
Team FIC Batting: 7.62 per game (9th overall)
Team FIC Pitching: 9.63 per game (9th overall)
Click here for more information about the Field Impact Counter and the Reina Value
What Happened Last Season
At the plate: The Brewers led the NL in homeruns (231), as eight players finished the season with double-digits.
Prince Fielder became an MVP candidate, posting a season FIC of 295 as he hit 50 homeruns (first player 23 years or younger to go for 50) and had a .395 OBP/.618 slugging.
Ryan Braun might have made 26 errors, but he also had a .634 slugging percentage, the highest ever set by a rookie. The ROY hit a home run in every 13.25 at bats and also hit .324.
J.J. Hardy began 2007 with 15 homeruns in April and June and only hit 10 for the duration of the season, including a July goose egg when the club went 9-11 and saw their NL Central deflate from 7.5 to 3.0.
Corey Hart had a flat-out bust out season in 2007, as his OPS nearly jumped 100 points from .796 to .892. He hit 24 homeruns despite hitting just 1 over the first two months of the season. Hart pounded left-handed pitching, hitting one homer every 17.7 at-bats and an OPS of 1.032.
Rickie Weeks joined the exclusive OPS over .800 but batting average under .240 club. He is one of only 21 players to ever accomplish the feat and he is joined by unsurprising names like Mark McGwire, Rob Deer, Reggie Jackson, Jeromy Burnitz, and Mickey Tettleton.
Bill Hall regressed across the board going from .345/.553 down to .315/425 in his OBP/SLG.
On the mound: Ben Sheets again missed 11-odd starts and had a 3.82 ERA, which has become fairly typical for the Louisiana native. He struggled mightily against right-handed batter, yielding an .815 OPS, up from his career average of .695 and also saw his WHIP balloon to 1.238. Between 2004 and 2006, he had the second best WHIP in the MLB (1.033) behind only Johan Santana.
Gallardo had a breakout season, posting a 3.67 ERA/1.269 WHIP over 110.3 innings.
Allowing himself to become vulnerable with the Brewers' defense, Jeff Suppan had just 4.96 strikeouts per nine innings last year, which was one of the worst totals in the MLB.
David Bush?s WHIP among the past two seasons (1.265) puts him in elite territory, but his propensity for yielding the long ball tempers his ERA and overall effectiveness. By almost half a point, Bush has the highest ERA (4.75) since 2006 for pitchers with a sub-1.300. WHIP.
Chris Capuano followed his 2006 All-Star season by delivering a 5.10 ERA and 5-12 record over 25 starts. The southpaw struggled against righties, yielding an .832 OPS.
Claudio Vargas also was a member of the ERA in the 5?s club, but he had an 11-6 record thanks to 5.90 runs per game versus just 3.71 for Capuano.
What Happened In The Offseason
For a young team who finished second in the weak NL Central, Doug Melvin certainly didn?t shy away from tinkering with his roster, particularly his bullpen.
Closer Francisco Cordero was allowed to defect to Cincinnati, and they answered the move by bringing in Eric Gagne (PED reliever).
Johnny Estrada was traded for Guillermo Mota (another PED reliever).
Geoff Jenkings walked, and they brought in Mike Cameron (PED outfielder) to play center while shifting Hall to third, Braun to left, and Hart to right.
What Could Happen This Season
At the plate: Fielder duplicates his 2007 and officially enters the Ryan Howard strata.
Braun duplicates his 2007 and officially enters the Pujols strata.
As stated above, Braun had the highest slugging percentage of any rookie in history and only 10 other players have had a slugging percentage over .500 since 1958 as a rookie.
1. Braun: .634 (07)
2. Albert Pujols: .610 (01)
3. Hunter Pence: .539 (07)
4. Tony Conigliaro: .530 (64)
5. Mitchell Page: .521 (77)
6. Jimmie Hall: .521 (63)
7. Darryl Strawberry: .512 (83)
8. Orlando Cepeda: .512 (58)
9. Austin Kearns: .500 (02)
10. Cory Snyder: .500 (86)
While some of the names on there suggest longterm success isn?t automatic, Braun had the second highest average (.324) behind Pujols.
Hall lowers his strikeout rate and has a .900 OPS campaign that results in a homerun total in the 30?s.
"I think I can hit more than 35," Hall recently told the AP, alluding to the possibility of eclipsing his 2006 HR output.
The idiosyncratic use of Kendall in the nine hole actually does result in a few dozen more runs as Dave Lawson suggests.
They are more patient at the plate and finish 2nd in runs scored behind the Phillies by improving on their .329 OBP, which was 11th best in the NL.
On the mound: With the Brewers? improved defense, the Brewers? ERA will decrease across the board. They were third in the NL in strikeouts and had the fourth fewest walk and homerun totals, which suggests their defense did little favors for the pitching staff.
Even though it seems like every team has a formidable 1-2 punch that ?could? be dominant, the Brewers have a very good one of their own in Sheets and Gallardo. Gallardo had surgery on February 19th to repair torn cartilage in his left knee, but he has made great progress already.
Beyond Sheets and Gallardo, the Brewers have no less than six capable starters fighting for the remaining three rotation slots. This surplus is necessary given Gallardo?s current injury and Sheets? history.
Suppan is, of course, an $8 million lock to be in the rotation and gets a bump from the Brewers? improved defense, and Bush manages to match his ERA with his WHIP.
Carlos Villanueva, who made 52 appearances out of the bullpen last year, is trying to win a spot as a starter. He had a 2.06 ERA over six starts last year.
Manny Parra will likely remain in Triple-A until injuries necessitate him. He had a 2.45 ERA in AA and AAA last season and a 3.21 K/BB rate. Parra is already 25, and his lefty arm on the mound will be particularly useful if Capuano struggles.
Gagne works out his Boston issues and saves 40 games.
What Should Happen This Season
Fielder and Braun are unlikely to be quite as productive as they were in 2007, but they should have far better balance across their lineup and also defensively.
The lineup truly has the potential to be AL scary, and if the Brewers' rotation can produce enough quality starts, then they will be in the thick of both the NL Central and Wildcard the entire season.
Five biggest questions
1. Will Fielder the vegetarian hit as many homeruns as Fielder the carnivore?
2. How will the Brewers fare during Cameron?s 25-game suspension?
3. Will the Brewers? new bullpen be reliable?
4. What difference will the new defensive arrangement really make?
5. Will the rotation show enough consistency?
Prediction: 88-74
More 2008 Season Previews
- Seattle Mariners
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- San Francisco Giants
- Cleveland Indians
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Detroit Tigers
- San Francisco Giants
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of the Reina Value.
|
