The Indians were one win away from the World Series but lost three in a row to Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, and Daisuke Matsuzaka to continue their 50-year drought.
2007 Record: 96-66
2007 Pythagorean Record: 91-71
Team FIC Batting: 7.30 per game (13th overall)
Team FIC Pitching: 10.26 per game (2nd overall)
At the plate: Grady Sizemore had another excellent season and continues to be one of the finest young all-around players in the game. His OPS dropped from .908 to .852, but he was a bit more patient at the plate, walking an additional 23 times and his OBP rose from .375 to .390.
Travis Hafner saw a big dip in his numbers in 2007. He had an OPS over 1.000 in each of the previous two seasons and a .992 in 2004, but he weighed in at just .836 this season.
Jhonny Peralta bounced back in 2007 from a disappointing 2006 which followed his extension. His OPS rose from .708 to .771, although he still is over one-hundred points shy of his 2005 .886.
Asdrubal Cabrera hit .283 with 3 homeruns in 45 games and will be a fixture of the Indians’ infield for years to come, whether it’s at second or short.
Franklin Gutierrez emerged as the right fielder of both the present and future. He had a .790 OPS in 271 at bats and appears to be only getting better.
On the mound: C.C. Sabathia had a 3.21 ERA with 209 strikeouts in 241 innings on his way to the Cy Young and the second best season FIC (292, 8.62 per start). He had a 3.22 ERA in 192.7 innings the season before and is the best left-handed starter in the MLB not named Johan Santana.
Fausto Carmona went from an average spot starter/long reliever with a 5.42 ERA, to one of the best sinker ball pitchers in the game, with an ERA of 3.06 and a 19-8 record in 215 innings. Carmona won the gnat game against the Yankees, establishing himself as a big game pitcher before struggling in the ALCS against Boston.
What Happened In The Offseason
In a word, nothing.
Mark Shapiro was unable to sign Sabathia to an extension, which was the primary topic of discussion. With such a young and cheap club, Cleveland could surely afford to retain him and cutting him off before free agency would be in the best interest of both parties. Sabathia’s price tag increased substantially the day Santana fell off next winter’s market.
They did sign reliever Masahide Kobayashi, who cannot be confused with the famous Coney Island Kobayashi.
What Could Happen This Season
At the plate: Sizemore reduces his strikeouts, increases his on-base percentage, and emerges as the perennial MVP candidate many expect him to be.
Hafner and Martinez average a .975 OPS between them.
Gutierrez figures out right-handed pitching (.692 OPS vs. .845 against lefties for his career).
Ryan Garko continues his steady climb and becomes his generation’s Lee May.
Either Andy Marte or Kelly Shoppach finally meet the expectations that have followed them as vaunted prospects.
On the mound: Carmona attempts to block Sabathia from winning back-to-back Cy Youngs, and they get improved production from Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey.
Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez have another sub-2.00 ERA season, and Joe Borowski saves another 45 games while lowering his 5.07 2007 ERA.
What Should Happen This Season
The Indians weren’t quite as good as their record indicated, but they won close games and got more than they expected from their staff. Since they didn’t upgrade their club in any meaningful ways, and the Tigers improved so dramatically, repeating as AL Central champions will prove difficult.
Five biggest questions 1. Will this be Sabathia’s final season in Cleveland
2. Can Hafner rebound from 2007?
3. Should the Indians count on Carmona to duplicate his breakout season?
4. How good will the Tigers really be?
5. Will Shaprio make a substantial in-season acquisition to fill a pressing need.
Prediction: 88-74
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of the Reina Value.
