| Christopher Reina. 29th February, 2008 - 7:20 pm
 Like the New England Patriots and the Phoenix Suns, the Detroit Tigers will have their sports’ most explosive and entertaining offense.
Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Magglio Ordonez, Gary Sheffield, and Miguel Cabrera makeup a 1-5 that truly dwarfs what Tito Francona and Joe Girardi send out in Boston and New York. And that doesn’t even include Carlos Guillen, Edgar Renteria, the 8th hitting Ivan Rodriguez, and Jacque Jones riding along as the caboose.
2007 Record: 88-74
2007 Pythagorean Record: 89-73
Team FIC Batting: 8.9 per game (4th overall)
Team FIC Pitching: 9.4 per game (14th overall)
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What Happened Last Season
At the plate: The Tigers were able to get career years in right, center, and second but were still unable to make the playoffs.
Ordonez had the second best season in the MLB with his 340 season FIC, hitting .363 with 54 doubles and 139 RBIs.
Granderson went from a nice young player to a true star in 2007. He and Jimmy Rollins joined the 20-HR/20-triple/20-double club in 2007, which previously had just five members. He had a season FIC of 211, which was 66th amongst all major-leaguers. Granderson also had an unreal Reina Value of +2,299%.
Polanco hit .341 and had an OPS of .846; both were career bests. He was the 32nd most productive player in the MLB with a season FIC of 241.
Sheffield had the 17th best season FIC (248) amongst hitters despite playing in just 133 games. He even stole 22 bases, which he hadn’t done since 1998. His second half injuries coincided with Detroit’s slide out of the playoffs.
On the mound: A lack of quality pitching behind Justin Verlander made life difficult for Jim Leyland and also for a bullpen missing Joel Zumaya for much of the season.
Verlander was excellent again, posting a 3.66 ERA and also throwing a no-hitter. He had a season FIC of 248, which was 11th amongst starting pitchers.
The front of the rotation potential Jeremy Bonderman has shown from time to time is difficult to determine due to nagging injuries. He was excellent in the first half of the season, going 9-1 with a 3.48 ERA, but in the second half he went 2-8 with a 7.38 ERA.
What Happened In The Offseason
In a winter that was frequently dominated by Alex Rodriguez, PEDs, and Johan Santana, the Tigers made big splashes early (Renteria) and often (Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis).
The price for Renteria was high as they gave up pitcher Jair Jurrjens and outfielder Gorkys Hernandez, but there aren’t too many purer baseball players than Renteria. He allows Guillen to switch over to shortstop and will be a key situational hitter to follow their middle of the lineup sluggers.
In his one American League season, Renteria struggled from his normal output by hitting .276 with just 8 homeruns for Boston.
But that deal ended up looking insignificant in comparison to Dave Dombrowski’s early December blockbuster with Florida that landed Cabrera and Willis.
Over the past four seasons, Cabrera has the 13th best OPS (.947), 7th best average (.318) and 18th most homeruns (126).
Willis is coming off a disastrous season in which he had a 5.17 ERA and gave up a .919 OPS versus right-handed hitters, but he is just two seasons removed from nearly winning the Cy Young in 2005 with a 2.63 ERA and 170 strikeouts.
What Could Happen This Season
For the average teams, this space is for what could go right, but for a team as talented as Detroit, it is for what could go wrong.
The biggest barrier that stands between Detroit and the playoffs are the Indians, Red Sox, and Yankees. On (at least my) paper, these are best four teams in all of baseball, but one of them will not reach the postseason.
At the plate: Ordonez, Granderson and Polanco could easily only match 75% of their 2007 performances.
Sheffield could miss a third of the season, Rodriguez could continue his rapid decline, and Renteria could yet again struggle in the AL.
On the mound: Verlander and Bonderman could battle injuries while Kenny Rogers is now 43, and there’s no hiding that. Willis could continue to be dominated by righties, and Robertson doesn’t return to his 2006 form.
Meanwhile in the bullpen, Zumaya is due back in late July or August and could never be the same while Fernando Rodney’s shoulder is also fragile. The durable Todd Jones could be equally durable but less reliable.
What Should Happen This Season
The Tigers should return to the playoffs in 2008. They were several games better than the Indians during the first half of 2007 and are significantly better in several areas of the game after Dombrowski’s spectacular offseason.
They may reach 1,000 runs considering they scored 887 a year ago. If they lower their ERA from last season's 4.57 even a quarter of a point, then they should coast to the postseason.
Five biggest questions for 2008
1. Will Cabrera and the Tigers commit to each other longterm?
2. How will Dontrelle transition to the AL?
3. Is it humanly possible for Ordonez, Granderson and Polanco not to decline from 2007?
4. How frequently will the Tigers score double-digit runs?
5. Can the Tigers pitching staff compete with the other top-tier clubs?
Prediction: 96-66
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of the Reina Value. |
