| Christopher Reina. 9th October, 2007 - 5:09 pm
 2007 Record: 71-91
2007 Pythagorean Record: 77-85
5th in NL West
2007 Payroll: $90 million (12th in MLB, 5th in NL)
We already know Will Clark and Matt Williams (2nd overall pick in 1985 and 3rd overall pick in 1986 respectively) aren?t walking through that door.
And unless you?re the Yankees, you can only sign the absolute best player in the game (Alex Rodriguez) so many times in a franchise?s history and that instance came in December 1992 when Barry Bonds signed his $43.75 million deal.
With two potential perennial Cy Young candidates, how will the Giants rebuild the club out of the Barry Bonds era? Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum will be phenomenal when they pitch four-fifths of a five-game playoff series, but they only are on the mound for two-fifths of the 162 games.
General Manager
For the first time in his career, Brian Sabean will be at the helm of a full-scale rebuilding effort. Unlike 1997, when he pulled off the Matt Williams for Jeff Kent, Julian Tavarez and Jose Vizcaino trade, there will be no such move that can immediately make the Giants a surprise playoff team.
He has been a good GM at retooling teams through moves for veterans to surround Barry Bonds, but his record for developing positional players is the most dismal in the entire major leagues. Pedro Feliz (career OBP of .288) is the lone homegrown player to make his mark with the Giants.
Manager
The Giants hired Bruce Bochy on October 27th, 2006 which was a very dull and unimaginative retread option. He was brought in for his work with young pitchers, which is good in theory, but he has never been a manager who maximizes the potential of his players like a Dusty Baker. The Giants weren?t as bad as their record indicated, but were 6-15 in extra-inning games and 24-28 in one-run games.
"Let's face it," said Bochy following the season. "It's going to be a different team, more oriented to pitching and defense. We'll have to change the brand of ball we play. We're not a club that can sit back and hit home runs. Even though we ran more this year, we've got to work on the fundamentals: bunting, moving guys over, taking a pitch, and the execution of pitches, especially late in games."
Catcher
Bengie Molina was the Giants' biggest free agent acquisition in the off-season and while he remains overpaid, he had a good season for the club. He hit .276, with 19 homers, which is well above average for a National League catcher.
First Base
The Giants are still trying to replace Will Clark and at this point, they would settle for J.T. Snow all over again. Damon Miner wasn?t the answer, just as Todd Benzinger wasn?t the answer long before him. Power has been scarce and the intended platoon of Ryan Klesko and Rich Aurillia was an outright disaster. Giants? first basemen combined to bat .262, with 13 homers and 62 RBIs.
With no free agents available at first base, Daniel Ortmeier should be given the chance to play everyday in 2008. He had an OPS of .900 in September while being given 15 starts. He is already 26, so it is now or never for the Giants? 3rd rounder in 2002.
Ryan Klesko should not be brought back under any circumstance.
Second Base
This has been a position of strength for the Giants for most of Brian Sabean?s tenure, between Jeff Kent and Ray Durham, but the latter was awful in 2007, batting .218. Durham is signed through 2008 for approximately $7.5 million, which will be a difficult contract to unload. He will be 36 next season, so while he should rebound at least a little bit, his finer days are certainly behind him.
The Giants believe Kevin Frandsen is the second baseman of the future and he finished 2007 with a strong September, where he had an OPS of .906 in 20 starts. Whether it is at second or at shortstop, he should be given one of the two middle infield positions until at least the All-Star break.
Third Base
For the past four seasons, Pedro Feliz has been nothing, if not consistent. He consistently gives the Giants around 20 homers, 80 RBIs and a .250 average. Feliz has also become one of the best defensive third basemen in the MLB. He would like a multi-year deal, which I would give if Sabean can keep it in the range of what a utility-infielder merits.
With nobody in the pipeline anywhere close to play third base on the big league level, no youngish free agent improvements available (Mike Lowell will likely re-sign with Boston and is 34) and Rich Aurilla as the only other viable option, the Giants and Feliz are likely stuck with each other.
The only caveat could be a trade for Miguel Cabrera, but it would take much more than Noah Lowry (i.e. Tim Lincecum and change) in order to get Florida to bite.
Shortstop
Re-signing Omar Vizquel would be a popular choice amongst Giants? fans, but before they even think about it, the club will likely kick Alex Rodriguez?s tires. It is very hard to imagine a scenario where Rodriguez would leave the virtual guarantee of October baseball on an annual basis for a rebuilding project in San Francisco.
Also unlikely will be a trade for Miguel Tejada, who will likely be shopped by Baltimore.
If they don?t bring back Vizquel, Frandsen will likely be their everyday shortstop, which will be a difficult position for him to play defensively. Other options include Ivan Ochoa and Luis Figueroa, but the Giants won?t be bullish on either.
Left Field
The decision to sever ties with Barry Bonds is certainly more an act of symbolism than it is about money or production. He was by far their most productive offensive player, posting an OPS of 1.053, with 28 homeruns in 337 at-bats.
Fred Lewis and Dave Roberts will share much of the duties, though Rajai Davis? flashes of speed since he came over for Matt Morris will make him the favorite in left field if they address center field via free agency.
The Giants are believed to be interested in Carl Crawford, but any big acquisition they make will likely be for a player who has the potential to hit 35-50 homeruns.
Center Field
With Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones and Aaron Rowand all available this summer, the Giants figure to be very active in free agency and it would be shocking to not see them sign one of them. The preference is believed to be Jones, who could be had at a relative bargain given how poor he played in 2007 and has the potential to anchor a lineup, whereas Hunter and Rowand are complementary offensive players.
Right Field
Randy Winn was their right fielder in 2007, but Nate Schierholtz figures to be in their plans far more in 2008. He is still waiting to hit his first big league homerun but hit 16 of them in Fresno in 2007. Winn is on a favorable contract, so he could be dangled to a team in need of a steady, versatile, veteran outfielder.
Starting Pitching
This is unquestionably the strength of the Giants as they begin their rebuilding mission and they might eventually elect to thin this strength to help their anemic offense.
As it stands now, Matt Cain is the anchor. He was the only pitcher to reach 200 innings and despite his 7-16 record, he posted a 3.56 ERA.
Tim Lincecum survived his rookie season with his arm and confidence completely intact. He had a 4.00 ERA, but struck out 150 batters in 146.3 innings, while only walking 65. He and Cain will be to the Giants what Jake Peavy and Chris Young are to the Padres.
Beyond these double-aces, they obviously have Barry Zito and the balance of his $126M contract. There is little doubt that he will be rebound, as he showed flashes of his former self in August when he had a 2.50 ERA. At worst, he will stay healthy and eat innings. At best, he will eat innings at an ERA in the mid-threes.
Their fourth starter is Noah Lowry, who is believed to very available via trade this winter. He is essentially diet-Zito, while being less durable. He has a career 4.03 ERA and has seen his strikeout numbers drop dramatically from 2005 where he K?d 172 batters.
The fifth starter will likely be Jonathan Sanchez, another young lefty or Kevin Correia with the loser of that race being sent to the bullpen. Sanchez says he would prefer to start and surely has the higher ceiling.
"He's been very good at times and he's been a little erratic with his delivery," said Bochy about Sanchez after his final start. "His arm slot moves around. That's an area we need to work on - keep him (throwing) over the top better so he's more consistent in the strike zone.
"This kid is still in the learning stage, but he's going to be good."
Relief Pitching
Brian Wilson emerged as the closer of the Giants? present and future in 2007. He posted a 2.28 ERA in 23.7 innings. Vinnie Chulk, Tyler Walker and Brad Hennessey both found their games in the bullpen as well. The Giants? bullpen is young, talented and has very nice depth.
Farm System
As mentioned earlier, the Giants have done a horrible job in developing positional players. This cannot be reiterated enough.
They did very little to change the course in June when they used their 10th overall pick on LHP Madison Bumgarner and 22nd overall pick on RHP Tim Alderson. They did, however, use the 29th overall pick on Wendell Fairley, an outfielder out of Mississippi, who is a tremendous athlete and could develop into a Carl Crawford.
Third baseman Angel Villalona was signed to an amazing $2.1 million signing bonus in 2006, winning a bidding war that included the Mets, Yankees, Mariners and Red Sox. He just turned 17 (allegedly), in August and after his first season in the organization, he hit .278 with five homeruns in 212 at bats. It appears as though he eventually will be a first baseman, however.
Shortstop Emmanuel Burriss has been a potential bright spot, but he struggled in San Jose, hitting .165 after hitting .431 in 89 games in the South Atlantic League.
John Bowker, a 24-year-old left-handed corner outfielder, had a good 2007 in AA ball, posting a .307 average with 22 homeruns and could emerge if Schierholtz fails. |
