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Moneyball Is Back

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Moneyball Is Back
Garrett Wilson. 3rd October, 2006 - 11:55 am


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Admit it. You had written off the Oakland Athletics as a flash in the pan success story. You said they were just a team lucky enough to come up with three great young pitchers at once. You thought Billy Beane and his franchise was just a bunch of overrated stiffs that hit on a major streak of good fortune. Oakland was just an over-hyped team that was just going to fade away. Don’t feel bad, you weren’t the only one to think that way. Now that the A’s are back in the play-offs, you won’t be the only one eating a healthy dose of crow either. That’s right, boys and girls; the Oakland Athletics are getting another shot to prove that Billy Beane is really the genius that Michael Lewis’ book, “Moneyball,” portrayed him to be.

It was only a few years ago when baseball experts across the land were singing the praises of Billy Beane and his innate ability to field a championship contender on a miniscule budget. After two straight divisional series washouts followed by consecutive seasons of missing the play-offs altogether, those experts began to change their tunes. The A’s were no longer a dynasty-in-the-making and Beane went from a genius to an overrated glory hound. Beane was just the guy lucky enough to land Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito at the same time. As free agency and big paydays approached for the Big Three, Moneyball naysayers were lining up around the block to say I told you so when the three aces all left for big market teams, leaving Beane and the A’s to fade into oblivion (or Bolivian, if you speak Mike Tyson). Those naysayers are going to have to wait at least one more year to kick the A’s while they are down though.

Mulder and Hudson are gone, Zito already has one foot out the door, but the Athletics are now stronger than ever and Billy Beane deserves all the credit. Beane was bright enough to realize that the window was quickly closing for the A’s and the Big Three, and he made the controversial decision to deal Mulder and Hudson while their value was still high. In so doing, he reloaded the team’s talent pool and opened up a whole new window for success. Beane even made a much overlooked change in team philosophy.

In “Moneyball,” Beane touted on-base ability, home runs and strikeout pitchers as the Holy Trinity of baseball success. Things like defense and hitters who racked up huge strikeout totals were mere trivialities. This current roster is built in an entirely different way. Beane still values the long ball and ability to draw a walk, but now the line-up is balanced out with hitters who have the ability to play a little bit of small ball and even steal the occasional base; and now, more than anything though, the team now has guys who can put the ball in play. The original Moneyball Athletics routinely led the league in strikeouts. Now, they are right in the middle of the pack. The change in philosophy is probably most noticeable in the field though. Beane couldn’t have cared less about defense a few years ago (as the Terance Long in center field experiment can attest to). Now, Oakland has an above average (if not great) fielder at almost every single position. Most everyone thought Mark Kotsay was going to be let go into free agency a year ago, but Beane made the surprising decision to ink him to a lengthy extension, despite the fact that Kotsay is not the OPS monster that Beane typically covets. Kotsay was simply too valuable as a defender for Beane to let him go.

The willingness to change is not something that comes easily to a lot of people high-powered executive positions, especially egotistical people (wait, egotistical executives? There’s no such thing, is there?). But change is exactly what was necessary for Oakland to remain competitive. An unforeseen side effect of the Moneyball book is that it spoiled Beane’s secret. His teams were doing fine paying small amounts of money to underrated hitters. The A’s were enjoying success while paying players like Scott Hatteberg and Jeremy Giambi peanuts to be quality major league starters. But after Moneyball, suddenly every team in the league wanted their piece of the OPS pie. Oakland’s front office was pillaged of talent as every small-market team (and even a few big-market teams) wanted to get their hands on the new breed of general manager. As a result, Beane could no longer sign underrated players to pennies on the dollar because all the new Moneyball clones were driving up the prices on those players (which quickly shifted them from underrated to overrated). The budget-restricted A’s needed to find a new untapped resource for bargain-priced players, and Beane found it by turning his attention towards quality defenders.

Due to Beane’s ability to adapt, the A’s now enter the post-season with what is probably the most balanced and well-rounded team in Beane’s tenure. The starting rotation has a new Big Three (Barry Zito, Rich Harden and Danny Haren), the bullpen is as deep as ever, the defense is solid at every position, the line-up still boasts mashers like Frank Thomas and Eric Chavez with is balanced out by gritty role players like Jason Kendall and Mark Kotsay. Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s might have missed their first chance to build a dynasty, but their second opportunity has come knocking (much sooner than expected). Don’t be surprised if they are ready to answer this time.
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