| Gary D. Brown. 14th July, 2006 - 2:14 pm
 One year ago, July 12, 2005, the NL West division leading Padres led second place Arizona by 5.5 games. At season?s end, the Padres still led Arizona by five games and won the division. Yes, 82-80 was a pathetic record for a division champion but San Diego still got the banner and made the playoffs. That?s the goal, no matter how ugly it looks.
At the All Star break this season, Arizona is once again only 5 games back, but in last place, setting the tone for what should be a terrific second half of baseball in the NL?s west division. The Giants, Rockies, Dodgers and even the D?Backs can technically still win the division title.
But can they really?
San Diego has six more road games than home games during the second half, which should be an advantage for the other four ball clubs. Ironically, the Padres own the NL?s best road record at 25-16 (second in the majors behind the Tigers, of course). However, San Diego is only 23-24 at home, the kind of stat that would haunt most teams over the course of a long season. But this is the National League West, mind you.
The Padres lead the division with Jake Peavy battling shoulder tendinitis and struggling to an un-Peavy like 4.46 era. What would Arizona?s record really be without the dependable Brandon Webb? Amazingly enough, Jake has only allowed 102 hits in 107 innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is an impressive 118/26. Fortunately for San Diego, they have had many players, like Chris Young and Chan Ho Park, carry the season.
Offensively, almost every team in the NL West is better than San Diego. The Dodgers have the top hitting team in the National League, if you go by batting average. The Rockies are third, Arizona 5th, and then the Padres at 12th, followed by San Francisco at 13th. Using total runs scored, a statistic that encompasses many different stats, like hitting with runners in scoring position, on-base average, steals ? the Dodgers are 2nd in the NL. San Diego is 15th, next to last in the league. So, offensively, the Padres cannot rely upon the bats to carry them to a second consecutive division title. That alone should bolster the hopes of the other teams.
What about pitching? Quite another story, thank you. In the entire National League, San Diego ranks # 1 in ERA, whip, opponents batting average, strikeouts versus walks, fewest hits per 9 innings, and fewest walks per nine innings. No other NL West team can compete with those rankings, other than the Giants perhaps. But San Francisco is not ranked number one in any of the major pitching categories. They are merely in the upper third.
Let?s keep in mind the West is a mediocre division. But, hey, mediocre can make a stretch run more fun, right?
Take Arizona, for example. While in last place, they are only five games back and extremely fortunate to be within shouting distance of first place. They lost twenty games in June. Twenty! What kind of division lets one team lose twenty games in a month and still have the potential to win the division? Reverse that trend for August and even Arizona can win the NL West. Life is great.
Arizona?s regular closer, Jose Valverde, is in the minor leagues after imploding. One original starter (El Duque) was traded. Miguel Bastista has an era above five and has allowed 134 hits in only 109 innings. Juan Cruz was on the disabled list. Claudio Vargas has shown great promise over the past month but Arizona needs consistency from all their starters or they easily become sellers as the July 31st trade deadline approaches. They likely will try to sell anyway, with eyes set on 2007, when they plan on introducing a slew of youngsters to the Arizona fans.
An old baseball adage says, ?pitching and defense wins?. Unfortunately for the Rockies, Dodgers, Giants, and D?Backs, the Padres are even tied for first in ?fielding? percentage in the National League. It?s gotta make several general managers wonder just what in the world it will take to win the weakest division in baseball, after all.
It is not likely San Diego?s pitching and fielding will falter down the stretch. In this post-steroid period great pitching and defense should win, like it did in the old days.
Welcome to the playoffs, San Diego. Great pitching, great defense and great weather. Sometimes life just isn?t fair. |
