| Joe Collins. 15th April, 2006 - 9:01 pm
 Why would you save your best bullpen arm until the 9th when you're already up by 3 runs? To have a young kid who sports a 95 MPH heater and shows no fear in any situation sit, that is an absolute waste. Jon Papelbon wins over Red Sox nation with every successive appearance. After his saves in Texas last week and in Baltimore this weekend, he has spurned an intense debate over the closer spot. In the Texas game, Keith Foulke sat in the pen while Papelbon dominated the Rangers in the ninth.
But to confine Papelbon to the closer role would be a bad idea. If Foulke can't close, Timlin could serve that role well enough. Paps will serve this team best if we save him, not for save situations, but for nut cutting time.
The save is one of the most overrated stat in baseball. Danny Klob managed to save 40 games and was exposed as a lousy pitcher the next year. Don't get me wrong, having an ace in the bullpen to close out tough games is just as important as having an ace in the rotation. Take Rivera out of New York and the Yankees are no where near as successful. Take a healthy Foulke off the 2004 team and the Sox don't win the World Series. But the most important out in a game may come in the 7th, not the 9th. One inning has A-Rod, Giambi, and Sheffield coming up and the next has Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, and Robinson Cano; which inning would you rather see your best reliever pitch in? This is the theory behind the "bullpen by committee" idea. The 2003 Sox version didn't work out because they didn't have a group that could adjust to the idea. The pen was comprised of a lot of older veterans who were used to having a specific role (oh, and guys like Chad Fox and Ramerio Mendoza sucked horribly).
Papelbon could be a one man closer by committee. If there is a bases loaded jam in the 7th, Papelbon can handle pitching in that spot. If you've got a one run lead in the 9th, bring the kid in. Put him in the pressure spot. His minor league batting average against got progressively smaller as people got on base. It was around .200 when guy got into scoring position. And with his fastball reaching the upper 90s coming out of the pen (he never threw as high as 97 in the minors), the kid can handle any situation. Now Mike Timlin had a great season last year but he really struggled with holding inherited runners. Give him a blank slate, like you would see at the start of the 9th inning, and he's lights out. If you put him out there with the bases loaded, you are likely to see a runner or two come home. If Foulke truly can't close, putting Timlin into the closer spot would be the wisest move for the bullpen. Papelbon is just a more flexible pitcher out there, you can throw him into any situation and in his short major league career he has shown he can handle it and pitch well.
I'm not fully convinced that Foulke is done, he pitched well against the Orioles, both in garbage time and on Sunday in the 8th inning. Papelbon came out in the 9th and struggled a bit because he did not have his best stuff. But with runners on first and third and only one out, the Kid came through and saved the game without letting a run across. Just like his minor league numbers suggest, he didn't allow a hit once a man got into scoring position (a sac fly got the runner to 3 rd and Papelbon hit Tejada to put men on the corners). If the Red Sox held a 1-0 lead against the Yankees in the 9th, I would be extremely pissed if Papelbon weren't pitching. But I don't see why Foulke or Timlin can't come in and close out a three run lead against the Royals simply because of a label. If you want to give Papelbon a label, give him Bill James' label, "relief ace". Let the kid pitch when we need him out there the most. |
