| Joe Collins. 29th March, 2006 - 11:28 pm
 What can you get for a league average pitcher these days? Apparently a young kid with a ton of tools that resembles an NFL linebacker more than a baseball player. At least that's what Theo got when he traded Bronson Arroyo to the Cincinnati Red for OF Wily Mo Pena. Consider this another coup for Theo (welcome back buddy).
Let's get something straight, Arroyo was and is a decent pitcher but he is nothing great. He has never had a season with an ERA under 4.00, nor has he ever had a major league season with over 150 strikeouts. While he is still relatively young at 29, he doesn't have the "stuff" to indicate an overwhelming improvement in his pitching in the future. He'll give you a middling ERA around 4.50 and pitch around 200 innings. Some will note that he lead the Red Sox in quality starts last year with 20, which he did. For those who don't know what a quality start is, it is when the pitcher goes 6 innings or more and gives up 3 runs or less. A 6 inning/3 run game would give a pitcher a 4.50 ERA, exactly what Arroyo will give you over an entire season. This is very helpful for a team to have a rubber arm eating up innings and Arroyo did a tremendous job at that last season but the Red Sox already have a number of "inning eaters", specifically Tim Wakefield and Matt Clement, who are ahead of Arroyo on the depth chart. To the right team, Arroyo offers a lot of value; the Red Sox just aren't that team.
Pena is an intriguing player. The name of his game is power. In a recent spring training game, they showed him standing at home plate and I could swear he was Clinton Portis' brother. For those non-football fans out there, Portis is one of the best bruising running backs in the NFL (I believe Pena also has 3-4 inches on Portis to boot). If there is ever another Sox/Yankees brawl, Pena will beat the entire Yankees roster into the ground by himself (Farnsworth included). For that reason alone, Pena was worth trading for (I mean come on, who DOESN'T want to see someone pile drive A-Rod into the infield grass?).
But he actually has value on the field as well. He has shown he can hit lefties very well, something necessary with Trot Nixon on the roster. He is a considerable upgrade over the Kapler/Millar platoon duo we have had patrolling RF the last few years and in a division with a number of lefty starters (Randy Johnson, Scott Kazmir, and Gustavo Chacin to name a few), this will be a tremendous boost to the offense. It also leaves the line-up less exposed to a LOOGY being brought in to neutralize Nixon because Pena will be on the bench ready to pinch hit. Pena can also play all three OF spots so this gives the front office the flexibility of not needing to carry Adam Stern simply to give Crisp the occasional day off. He is also considerably younger than Arroyo at 24 even though he has been in the majors for the last three seasons. The Yankees signed him out of the Dominican at 16 but gave him a major league contract, meaning he was already on the major league 40 man roster at 16. The Yankees were forced to use options on him when he was playing in the GCL at 17 and he ran out of options at the tender age of 20, meaning he had to stick on the major league roster for good after that. He was one of the youngest players at every minor league stop he had and should have spent part of the last 3 years getting at bats every day in the minors. Instead, he's had a bench role on the Reds major league roster. He showed some improvements last season posting a .280/.318/.573/.891 line before the all star break and even though he only batted .224 after the all star game, he has an OBP of .290 (a .075 ISOPatience is good for most hitters and for someone like Pena it is a near miracle). He will not turn into another Ortiz overnight, there is clearly some considerable work to do, but there are a number of signs that point to Pena being a promising player.
Pena is not without his flaws. He still shows a tendency to go after breaking balls he has no business going after. He also has an atrocious OBP (and that is putting it gently). He also has struggled against righties (hitting .234 against them and posting a sub .800 OPS, something abysmal for a power hitter like Pena). While he has all the tools to be a good defensive OF, the best report you'll find is that he is "raw", meaning with Manny in LF and Wily Mo in RF, we could have a Duo of Dominican Defensive Dunces (alliteration rocks!). Pena is young and has plenty of potential but he NEEDS at bats to develop and we won't many this season barring an injury to Nixon (a pretty likely bet considering his recent history). Any development issues he has now may not be given the proper time to be addressed them this season, meaning he may not grow at a player until next season, if ever.
Arroyo DID NOT sign a "hometown discount deal, let's make that clear. He did not sign his current deal because "he likes playing for the Red Sox", although I do not doubt his sincerity when he says he does enjoy playing in Boston. The reason he signed the deal is because that deal guarantees that he will make $11 million over the next three years, he bought himself some security. Let me explain, Arroyo was up for arbitration this year and he would have received something around $4 million if he won his hearing. By signing the deal, Arroyo is going to earn around $3.5 each of the next three years. Josh Beckett went to arbitration for the first time this off season and he earned slightly more then $4 million. You also have to keep in mind that Beckett is a considerably more accomplished pitcher than Arroyo (call me when Arroyo wins a World Series MVP) so that should give you some perspective on how sweet Arroyo's deal actually was. The reason security is a concern with Arroyo is because, prior to the trade, he was the Red Sox 7th best starting pitcher. He was slated to pitch middle relief and maybe spot start.
Now, if he had not signed him deal and simply taken his arbitration salary, he would have been up for arbitration once again in the 2006-7 off season. He would have entered that hearing having worked middle relief the previous year (the 2006 season) and I can promise you one thing, there is NO way he would get $4 million; no middle reliever makes that kind of money, even in arbitration. Now he might even end up in the bullpen during the 2007 season, depending on the maturation of Jonathon Papelbon and Jon Lester. But with their maturation, he may have ended up in the bullpen and he would have gone to arbitration in the 2007 off season as a middle reliever once again. He would have wasted his arbitration years working as a middle reliever. The chances of him matching his 2005 numbers (13 wins, 200 innings pitched, 100 strikeouts), let alone his 2004 stats, were slim because there simply wasn't a very good chance of him getting extended time in the rotation. Without time in the rotation, there was no way he was going to over $11 million over the next three seasons through arbitration. Kinda kills the hometown discount idea huh?
There is an old baseball maxim that says, "You can never have too much pitching". And to a large extent, it is true. The 2005 Red Sox proved just that, having struggled all season trying to find starters and a bullpen that would implode on itself. The thing with Arroyo though, is we had SEVEN starting pitchers. In moving Arroyo, we still have six. Last time I checked, you only have 5 pitchers in the rotation. It is certainly nice to have the security of guys going down and having major league caliber pitchers stepping into the rotation rather then trying to hunt down Frank Castillo and ask him to lace 'em up again. The Red Sox traded a strength and surplus, starting pitching, to fill a weakness, RH power (who happens to be 24 to boot). You don't NEED more than one or two back-up plans on your roster. There are definitely some injury concerns, namely Schilling, Beckett, and Wells, but it is very unlikely that all three would go down at the same time. We have Papelbon ready to step in if someone is out for a long period of time and we have Lenny Dinardo and Abe Alvarez ready to spot start if someone has to miss a turn or two through the rotation. The only time we would actually miss Arroyo's rubber arm is if Beckett's blister explodes and destroys his entire index finger, David Wells dies of alcohol poisoning somewhere in Southie, and Schilling's ankle begins to resemble Padre Pio.
It's a slight gamble moving Arroyo but Pena's potential and his 2006 production more then makes up for that gamble. And even if he never develops, he will serve us well parked on the top step of the dugout. That should keep A-Rod from ever thinking about charging the mound. |
