| Chris Hoyler. 9th August, 2005 - 3:39 pm
 Injuries, Inconsistency Contain Florida?s Run
An 8-3 run to end July launched the Marlins to the top of the National League Wildcard logjam. Now, a run to the disabled list may knock them back to the pack, unless the inconsistencies plaguing the team in close games can be corrected.
The Week Behind
Two wins in against the best club in the NL was nice, but with the Cardinals battling injuries at key positions (Rolen at third and Molina at catcher, among others hurt), one can?t help to think that an opportunity was lost.
It may seem contradictory to question the team?s consistency in close games when they pulled out two one run affairs to bookend the series, but both losses were preventable setbacks, frustrating for different reasons. Wednesday?s 9-6 loss was pretty simple, as the bullpen was terrible. Guillermo Mota, who was pitching better in close games recently, imploded in the three run Cardinal eighth to seal the game. His fastball was still slower than last season, something that he had seemed to come to grips with in his recent successful outings. On Wednesday, he left it up every time, throwing a wild pitch when he started aiming it down.
Tuesday?s 3-1 loss to Cy Young frontrunner Chris Carpenter was a case of blown opportunities and failing to seize momentum. St. Louis outplayed Florida, leaving ten men on base to Florida?s four. Dontrelle Willis did a nice job in preventing the crooked number inning that had plagued him in July, yet the Marlins would come up in the next inning and hack at pitches early in the count, letting Carpenter cruise to a complete game with only 109 pitches. Juan Pierre was up with one out in the 3rd and led off the 6th, not even threatening to get in with a bunt base hit. After he created the lone Florida run with his speed in the opening frame, Jack McKeon refused to do anything to try to break Carpenter?s rhythm. In sitting idly by hoping for the big bats to randomly start hitting the NL?s best pitcher, McKeon showed no game sense. I will admit that I was premature in writing off Burnett and Willis as damaged, overused goods for 2005, but to ignore McKeon?s clearly fading game managing skills is absurd.
Ron Villone
Another reason McKeon needs to go? His use of the bullpen. Ron Villone is the newest addition to the Marlin bullpen, and you would assume that in their acquisition of him, the staff knew what kind of arm they were getting. That assumption would show that you haven?t watched much Marlins baseball this year. Villone pitched the first three games of the St. Louis series, throwing 1 1/3 effective innings in both Monday and Tuesday?s contest. In Seattle, Villone had been used on back to back days 12 times, pitching well on the second day in most cases. Villone was used on three consecutive days four times, pitching well on the third day in every case. There shouldn?t have been a problem then with Jack using him on Wednesday, at least on the surface. Yet, going deeper in the game log of Villone?s stint in Seattle shows where the staff failed in preparation. In the first three day stint in late April (28-30), he threw 1/3 of an inning in both of the first two outings. In the second stint, exactly one month later, he threw 1 1/3 inning the first day and 1/3 the second. The third, in late June (20-22), he threw 1 inning the first day and 2/3 the second. The last with Seattle came in early July (8-10), throwing 1/3 inning the first day and 1 2/3 the second. So, of course, McKeon brings Villone in on Wednesday after he threw 1 1/3 innings on the previous two days. Villone has not had that type of workload at anytime this season. McKeon is putting an undue physical and mental strain on the new acquisition, who, based on his first three days with the team, was being leaned on as the savior of the bullpen. If that is what Larry Beinfest and McKeon were after, they should have made a bigger move for Danys Baez, a true closer. Giving up top prospects for a pitcher who is, at best, a good setup man and at worst a left-handed one out guy, is poor preparation and execution, from the top of the organization down to the field.
Surprises in Cincy
Pardon me if I seem negative, but the Marlins two wins at Great American Ballpark this weekend left me wanting more. To be specific, it left me wanting, better yet wondering, why they did not sweep the series. Jason Vargas was superb on Friday, earning a spot in the rotation for the foreseeable future. Dontrelle Willis continued to round back into first half form on Sunday, despite the lack of offense and eight men left on base by Florida.
Those starts sandwiched a 4-3 on Saturday, a frustrating effort that saw the Marlins make many small mistakes at the plate, an accumulation of which left them a run short. Mike Lowell?s double play with the bases loaded and no outs in the fourth stifled an inning that could have ended the game, as it was they scored three and took a 3-2 lead. Late in the game, the devastating bullpen triumvirate of Belisle, Mercker and Weathers baffled the Florida bats. In the 8th, Pierre attempted to bunt for a base hit with Aurilia standing inside the edge of the grass. I am all about bunting JP as much as possible, but when the third basemen in expecting it and there is a runner on first, the better decision would have been to let JP either hit or work a walk.
Quite simply, if the Marlins expect not only to: A) Win the Wild Card and B) Succeed in the playoffs, they need to stop leaving so many men on base and play better situational baseball. Leaning on great starts from Burnett, Beckett and Willis leads to the 5-9 stretch that the Marlins hit in the days prior to and following the All Star Game.
The Week Ahead
Injuries
Saturday?s 4-3 loss to the Reds was the best thing that happened to the Fish. Carlos Delgado, who was out of the lineup for the past week, was placed on the Disabled List retroactive to July 28th. His sore left hand has been slower to heal than his left elbow, which was the initial ailment to keep him on the bench. The team says that while he is able to take batting practice, he is not hitting the ball as hard as he usually does, erring on the side of caution in hopes that he will be at full strength by Thursday, when he is eligible to return.
Florida was relieved following an MRI on Juan Encarnacion?s sore left wrist on Saturday. Results were normal, adding to a negative x-ray on Friday in building hope that he can return in the middle of the week.
Paul Lo Duca hit the base running double whammy Saturday, getting thrown at third after he pulled up lame half way between second and third base. Lo Duca was shown hitting a water cooler in the dugout after he hopped off the field, not a good sign for the Marlins. While the team is unsure of how much time he will miss, the situation did not look good during the game. Lo Duca has been quoted as saying he believes he will return by the weekend.
West Coast Hosts
The Marlins are detoured to Coors Field for a day/night doubleheader with the Rockies, drawing the Kim boys (Sun Woo and B.K) in what should be a much needed sweep. With the Washington loss on Sunday, Florida is now tied for 2nd in the Wild Card race, 2 games behind Houston. A sweep on Monday would put them one game out, and with Houston set to host the Nationals for three games this week, a rise to first in the race is in the Marlins hands. Josh Beckett will start the first game of the twin bill, set for 3 PM EST on Fox Sports Florida. Ismael Valdez will follow in Game 2.
Following the doubleheader, the Marlins immediately head home for a 12 game home stand against Colorado?s four division mates in the NL West. Arizona comes to Miami on Tuesday just 2.5 games out of first in the West, with Florida drawing the D-Backs top three starters in the series (In order of day started: Vazquez, Halsey, Webb). Webb and Vazquez were handled by the Marlins in their three game set in Arizona three weeks ago, but Delgado had a big hand in those wins and is out of the lineup. The key game in the series will be Wednesday, when Vargas takes on Halsey in a battle of rookie lefties. Vargas is new to the league and is able to throw his best stuff without the opponent having an advantage of advanced scouting. The Marlins have never faced Halsey, but his full season in the league gives them the slight advantage of scouting an array of starts. This is going to be a fun game to watch for those who enjoy watching young prospects and good pitching.
San Francisco comes in for the weekend, with the Marlins getting a better draw in opposing starters. Brian Cooper is projected to open on Friday, with Brett Tomko and Brad Hennessey following. Hennessey and Tomko struggled in their starts against the Marlins three weeks ago, Tomko getting a win only due to Willis? terrible outing. At this point, optimism points to all three injured regulars returning to the lineup for Florida, a nice boost that hopefully won?t be of dire need. I see no reason why the Marlins can?t kick off this crucial home stand, their longest of the season, with 5 wins.
Prospect Watch
Similar to the World Series Championship of 2003, the Marlins find themselves getting major contributions from their minor league system. While the top of the depth chart is contributing and developing, the bottom half of Baseball America?s 2005 Top 30 is, to be frank, terrible. Be forewarned, these are ugly numbers, I expect a good chunk of these guys to drop off BA?s list in 2006.
Note: Statistics as of 7/31
16. Jai Miller, OF
2005 Statistics
Greensboro: .218 AVG/.316 OBP/.359 SLG/9 HR/27 RBI/40 BB/94 SO/13 SB/9 CS
Playing Moneyball with Miller: Ick. Those stats speak for themselves. Miller can?t get on with any discernable consistency, and when he does, he is a 60/40 proposition to get himself erased on the base paths. It?s Low-A, so he obviously has time to improve, but then again, it?s Low-A, and a real prospect would be better than this. I expect nothing from Miller.
17. Greg Burns, OF
2005 Statistics
Short Season Jamestown .266 AVG/.344 OBP/.308 SLG/0 HR/5 RBI/15 BB/51 SO/10 SB/7 CS
Playing Moneyball with Burns: Not a bad debut in the NY-Penn League, a tough league for a guy to learn how to leadoff. I?m willing to give Burns a bit more slack than Miller, but it is obvious that the coaching in the system, from top to bottom, is struggling to stress effective base stealing. It all starts at the top, with JP. He?s a great base stealer, but gets caught often. Down the line in the system, the leadoff hitters all have good speed and base stealing numbers, yet also are among the league leaders in failures. Hate to go off on tangent, but basically, Burns needs time. Lots of it.
18. Logan Kensing, RHP
2005 Statistics
Carolina: 7 G/7 GS/4 W/1 L/0 SV/3.18ERA/39.2IP/1.24WHIP/33 SO/4 HR
Florida: 3 G/0 GS/0 W/0 L/0 SV/11.12 ERA/5.2 IP/2.47WHIP/4 SO/2 HR
Playing Moneyball with Kensing: Kensing was a surprise call up in late May and was hit hard. He was not put in the best situations, calling it mop up work would be nice, but he has recovered well in Carolina. Kensing did show some poise, something that is going to translate well to the majors when he does get a full time shot. Once again, he is the victim of numbers. He will be good trade bait this winter, maybe as a sweetener to a JP deal in order to grab a real big prospect return.
19. Jamar Walton, OF
2005 Statistics
Jamestown: .228 AVG/.307 OBP/.246 SLG/0 HR/7 RBI/10 BB/43 SO/1 SB/2 CS
Playing Moneyball with Walton: Walton is considered one of the top athletes in the Marlins system, according to several scouting reports. When I read that about a young player, it triggers the thought that he is going to need lots of seasoning before he is ready to produce professionally. Walton?s had strike judgment problems from the beginning, so it is going to take work in the winter and improving next year for him to justify the high pick and bonus he was given. Work ethic is not a problem with Walton, so judgment should be reserved until he has ample time to learn and understand the nuances of hitting.
20. Chris Resop, RHP
2005 Statistics
Carolina: 30 G/0 GS/1 W/0 L/19 SV/2.20 ERA/32.2 IP/1.26 WHIP/37 SO/1 HR
Florida: 7 G/0 GS/0 W/0 L/0 SV/8.31 ERA/8.2 IP/1.62 WHIP/8 SO/1 HR
Playing Moneyball with Resop: Same thing as Kensing, mop up duty in all his appearances. He looks intimidating on the mound, his stuff wasn?t out of place in the majors, even at 23, and he was better than Al Leiter. Resop is going to be a good middle reliever at the big league level, I?d say he is a full time ML?er by no later than 2007. Odds of that full time job coming with the Marlins: 50/50.
21. Jon Fulton, 3B/SS
2005 Statistics
Greensboro: .232 AVG/.297 OBP/.416 SLG/11 HR/39 RBI/20 BB/72 SO/1 SB/1 CS
Playing Moneyball with Fulton: The book in Fulton is all power, no discipline. The numbers reflect the book. The boys in Greensboro seem to have a hard time avoiding the strikeout, which again, is the fault of the organizational coaching structure. Somebody needs to get Luis Castillo down there to teach these kids how to take a pitch, STAT.
22. Rodrigo Rosario, RHP
2005 Statistics
G/GS/W/L/SV/ERA/IP/WHIP/SO/HR
Notes: Rosario seems to have dropped off the face of the earth, as there is no news, statistics, anything about him and this baseball season. He was a Rule 5 pick, injured for all of 2004. With that combination, along with the fact that he was assigned to Florida?s Minor League Camp in early March, I?m assuming he is still hurt and rehabbing. MLB.com has him listed as a player with no team, so maybe he was just released. It really doesn?t matter, either way.
23. Jose Campusano, SS
2005 Statistics
Jupiter: .280 AVG/.306 OBP/.318 SLG/0 HR/19 RBI/6 BB/48 SO/12 SB/3 CS
Campusano is a joy to watch in the field, but his numbers don?t tell the story for how bad his plate discipline is. That 8/1 K/BB ratio is actually flattering, as I have seen him take exactly 2 pitches in the dozen or so plate appearances I?ve watched. Both those takes were called strike threes. He does have the speed and the energy, he?s one of the guys you see fidgeting between pitches in the field, talking up his infield mates and having fun. I?m rooting for him, but I can?t see him making a dent on Robert Andino?s future anytime soon.
24. Franklyn Gracesqui, LHP
2005 Statistics
Albuquerque: 5 G/0 GS/0 W/0 L/0 SV/10.12 ERA/2.2 IP/2.625 WHIP/2 SO/0 HR
Playing Moneyball with Gracesqui: He moved up the system relatively quickly, getting a shot with the big club last season. Coming back from an injury plagued spring, Gracesqui seems to be struggling at AAA. This season is a wash for him, he needs to work himself back up the system is he wants another shot. His prospect status, however, is all but gone.
25. Ronald Belisario, RHP
2005 Statistics
G/GS/W/L/SV/ERA/IP/WHIP/SO/HR
Notes: Like Rosario, he seems to have vanished. The Marlins still have him listed on their official website, as does MLB.com, so I am assuming he is still property of the team. He?s also accumulated spring training numbers. I?ll chalk this one up to either: A)He?s hurt or B)He?s been released and nobody bothered to update his information. Like Rosario, I don?t think it matters much.
26. Cole Seifrig, 2B
2005 Statistics
Greensboro: .200 AVG/.271 OBP/.312 SLG/3 HR/15 RBI/10 BB/39 SO/4 SB/2 CS
Playing Moneyball with Seifrig: Hey, how about that, another Grasshopper with close to 4/1 K/BB ratio. Shocking, I say. Really now, these numbers for the Low-A kids are just not that good, and it is not just with these supposed top prospects. Their best OBP is from LF JT Restko (.402), and even he is doubling himself up in the BB/K department, with 75 whiffs to just 37 walks. I was appalled when I took a look up and down this team?s roster, finding not one regular with better than a 2/1 K/BB.
27. Allen Baxter, RHP
2005 Statistics
Greensboro: 11 G/11 GS/1 W/3 L/0 SV/4.15 ERA/56.1 IP/1.67WHIP/53 SO/8 HR
Jupiter: 5 G/4 GS/0 W/2 L/0 SV/6.10 ERA/20.2 IP/2.08 WHIP/18 SO/1HR
Playing Moneyball with Baxter: I am unsure how Baxter earned a promotion to Jupiter, as his Low A numbers fail to jump off the page. Granted, he did not have much competition in Greensboro, where the other top starters are either too young to be promoted (Taylor Tankersley) or trying to kick a crack habit that nearly killed him (Jeff Allison). One thing going for Baxter is his above average HR/9 total and close to 1 strikeout per inning production. The arm is there, so the question is whether the minor league staff can refine him enough to get that hit total down and make him an effective, major league caliber long reliever. It is safe to say that he will not be a starter in the higher levels.
28. Chris Aguila, OF
2005 Statistics
Albuquerque: .355 AVG/.412 OBP/.630 SLG/7 HR/25 RBI/14 BB/21 SO/8 SB/2 CS
Florida: .273 AVG/.304 OBP/.318 SLG/0 HR/0 RBI/1 BB/6 SO/0 SB/0 CS
Aguila has been a good, yet frustrating, story for the Marlins. His stay in the organization began in 1997, a 3rd round pick out of a Nevada high school. That gives him the third longest tenure in the organization, behind the Castillo/Alex Gonzalez double play duo. At 26, it has taken him longer than expected or preferred to reach the majors, yet McKeon and the staff constantly praise his work ethic and how he could crack the lineup if Cabrera moves to third or Encarnacion bolts in FA. Aguila is done in the Florida minor league system, his good play in the 2003 Arizona Fall League and domination of AAA this season shows he has nothing left to prove. If he can?t crack the roster for good next season, he?ll be traded or released at the end of spring, destined for AAAA status with another team.
29. Lincoln Holdzkom, RHP
2005 Statistics
Rookie GCL Marlins: 3 G/0 GS/0 W/0 L/0 SV/2.25 ERA/4.0 IP/1.50 WHIP/6 SO/0 HR
Playing Moneyball with Holdzkom: He?s been injured this season, his progress stagnated just when he seemed to be close to getting a shot in Miami. Holdzkom has not had the best personal life, getting kicked off his college team and being chastised for his appearance (tattoos and piercings). Most reports seem to agree that if he ever got his act together and could stay healthy, the Marlins would have a very tough righty out of the bullpen. His statistical sample is too small to make any judgments off of for this season, his first since Tommy John in 2004.
30. Jeff Allison, RHP
2005 Statistics
Greensboro: 10 G/10 GS/2 W/4 L/0 SV/4.10 ERA/52.2 IP/1.29 WHIP/43 SO/6 HR
Playing Moneyball with Allison: Allison?s struggles have been documented by all the top news outlets. A heroin overdoes nearly killed him in the middle of last summer, with many thinking that he would not come close to making it back. The fact that he is pitching this year, let alone pitching pretty effectively, is encouraging. It is going to take a long time for him to get back to a point where the near $2 million bonus is justified, but staying sober is a good step to getting there. I wouldn?t bet against Allison based on these numbers, as a full winter and spring could rocket him through the system next summer. He should challenge for a major league rotation spot, somewhere, by 2008.
Please send any feedback to mosley2k@hotmail.com. I?m open to any suggestions about the article content in general, ideas for future columns (Marlins or MLB General) and more. |
