| Chris Hoyler. 1st August, 2005 - 8:22 pm
 Beginning with this issue, I will take a look at the Marlins farm system. Referencing Baseball America?s 2005 Prospect Handbook, the team?s Top 15 prospects for 2005 will be examined. Next week, the evaluations of the organization?s levels begin, starting with the short season leagues (Rookie and Low A). In addition, BA?s 16-30 prospects will get be put under the microscope.
Week In Review
Pittsburgh @ Florida
Tuesday 7/26- Pittsburgh 6 Florida 3
Win: Josh Fogg (5.1 IP, 9 H, 3 BB, 3 ER, 1 K; 5-6, 4.93 ERA)
Loss: Brian Moehler (4.1 IP, 9 H, 1 BB, 4 ER, 4 K; 6-7, 3.56 ERA)
Save: Jose Mesa (1.0 IP, 1 H; 25 Saves, 3.92 ERA)
Game Notes: Moehler was not strong at all, making mistakes that have been few and far between this season. Home plate umpire Mark Carlson was inconsistent with the low and outside strike that Moehler lives on. This forced Moehler and Lo Duca to work the plate more, with Brian leaving the ball up at the wrong times. He just did not have much on this evening, and was lucky to give up only 4 runs. McKeon?s strategy cost the Marlins at the plate and in the field. With two outs in the bottom of the 2nd and a runner on 2nd, McKeon intentionally walked Jack Wilson to get to the pitcher?s spot. Not a terrible idea as Wilson went 3-3 against Moehler in Pittsburgh, but why not make Wilson work for the walk, why not try to expose his struggling bat and plate discipline? The worst that can happen is he gets a four pitch walk at four pitches out of the zone. Wells then comes up and promptly singles home a run, leading to a two run inning. Blame Moehler, but McKeon should have seen known that nobody is ever a sure out with Moehler on the mound, especially with the way he had struggled early in the game. The reason I bring this up is because Moehler dominated Wilson in the 4th, striking him out with ease. In the bottom of the 4th, McKeon called for a Juan Pierre steal on a 0-2 count with Delgado at the plate and 1 away. Fogg was preoccupied with JP all night, as this was his 3rd hit to that point and had already stole a base. That count, in addition to a 1-2 count, is perfect for the Pirates to pitchout, and JP was hung out to dry when they did.
Wednesday 7/27- Florida 3 Pittsburgh 1
Win: Jason Vargas (3.0 IP, 0 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 5 K; 1-0, 3.48 ERA)
Loss: Ryan Vogelsong (3.2 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 2 ER, 2 K; 0-1, 5.51 ERA)
Save: Todd Jones (1.0 IP, 1 BB, 2 K; 17 Saves, 1.45 ERA)
Game Notes: Jason Vargas is the story. For more hyperbole about him, go read his prospect profile.
Thursday 7/28- Florida 3 Pittsburgh 0
Win: Dontrelle Willis (7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K; 14-6, 3.07 ERA)
Loss: Kip Wells (7.0 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 ER, 2 K; 6-11, 4.65 ERA)
Save: Todd Jones (1.0 IP, 1 K; 18 Saves, 1.42 ERA)
Game Notes: Willis is dominant; My guess is he read my article from last week and got pissed off. In all seriousness, Willis?s velocity was good, not great, though his breaking stuff resembled that of his dominating first half. His recovery after allowing a one out triple to Jason Bay in the fourth was classic Willis. He made Brad Eldred and Ryan Doumit look silly in consecutive strikeouts to end the inning. That was the turning point of the game, as Eldred and Doumit are great young prospects, but Willis was the great young proven major leaguer. There is a difference. I need one more of these from Willis before I declare him back, though.
Friday 7/29- Florida 4 Washington 3
Win: Josh Beckett (6.1 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 ER, 8 K; 10-6, 3.39 ERA)
Loss: Tony Armas Jr. (6.0 IP, 6 H, 4 BB, 4 ER, 1 K; 5-5, 4.83 ERA)
Save: Todd Jones (1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 K; 19 Saves; 1.39 ERA)
Saturday 7/30- Florida 3 Washington 0
Win: AJ Burnett (7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K; 8-6, 3.30 ERA)
Loss: John Patterson (6.0, 5 H, 3 BB, 2 ER, 6 K; 4-3; 2.60 ERA)
Save: Todd Jones (1.0 IP; 20 Saves, 1.36 ERA)
Game Notes: Burnett caps off ?Shut the hell up Chris? week at Dolphins Stadium, turning in his most effective start in a month with a tough opponent on the mound and at the dish. The game was not televised in the Tampa area (FOX showed LAA-NYY), but the numbers and the post game quotes sum up that Burnett was his first half self. He?s in Miami to stay, so the Fish must be sure that his arm is going to hold up under Abuser Jack?s habits. 101 pitches in 7 innings is good, though.
Sunday 7/31- Washington 4 Florida 2
Win: Livan Hernandez (8.0 IP, 11 H, 1 BB, 2 ER, 5 K; 13-4, 3.27 ERA)
Loss: Brian Moehler (4.2 IP, 9 H, 4 BB, 3 ER, 3 K; 6-8, 3.64 ERA)
Save: Chad Cordero (1.0; 35 Saves, 1.13 ERA)
Note: Could not see the game in my area, KC-TB was covered by Fox Sports Florida.
The Week Ahead (All Statistics Through Sunday)
Florida (53-49) @ St. Louis (66-38)
Monday (8:10 PM, FSN Florida, ESPN) Ismael Valdez (0-0, 1.80) VS Jason Marquis (9-8, 3.77)
Tuesday (8:10 PM, FSN) Dontrelle Willis (14-6, 3.07) VS Chris Carpenter (15-4, 2.33)
Wednesday (8:10 PM, No TV) Josh Beckett (10-6, 3.39) VS Matt Morris (11-4, 3.60)
Florida @ Cincinnati (47-58)
Friday (7:10 PM, FSN) Brian Moehler (6-8, 3.64) VS Eric Milton (5-11, 6.65)
Saturday (7:10 PM, FSN) AJ Burnett (8-6, 3.30) VS Luke Hudson (2-5, 8.39)
Sunday (1:15 PM, I Network): Ismael Valdez VS Ramon Ortiz (6-6, 5.84)
Baseball America?s Top 30 Prospects
This handbook was released prior to the season. I am using it solely as a reference and through independent research will spotlight players that, for whatever reason (Under the radar, new to the system), are not rated by BA. For the players in the system who have not been viewed on the field, we will ?Play Moneyball? with them. For those unfamiliar with Michael Lewis?s best-seller on the organizational philosophy of Billy Beane?s Oakland Athletics, the player?s value will be analyzed not through actual view of their play, but their statistical performance. The point of this is not to regurgitate scouting reports (The Handbook is available for anyone with $20 and/or willing to make the trip to Barnes and Noble to read it), but to take a look at the numbers and guess if the player fits with the team?s current approach.
Credit to Minorleaguebaseball.com for all 2005 statistics. All statistics as of 7/29/05.
Statistics Listed:
Position Players: AVG/OBP/SLG/HR/RBI/BB/SO/SB/CS
Pitchers: G/GS/W/L/SV/ERA/IP/WHIP/SO/HR
1. Jeremy Hermida, OF
2005 Statistics
AA Carolina: .304 AVG/.469 OBP/.538/15/51/90/71/21/2
-Hermida is one of the hottest names in all of baseball, with any Marlins trade rumor having something to do with him. Whenever they are in the running to acquire a big name, he is the centerpiece of the deal. Whenever Mike Lowell is mentioned in a rumor, it is assumed that Miguel Cabrera will become the 3B and Hermida will take over in the corner outfield spots with Juan Encarnacion. Encarnacion is also a name mentioned in rumors due to his salary, and Hermida would be his replacement. I saw him in Jupiter last season, and while his first round talent was evident, his improved plate discipline in 2005 is shocking. He has more than doubled his 2004 walk total already, while filling out his power potential with 40 extra base hits. He looks like an easy fit into the five hole of the Marlins lineup right now, and a future cleanup hitter whenever Carlos Delgado is ready to move down a spot.
2. Scott Olsen, LHP
2005 Statistics
Carolina: 14/14/6/4/0/3.92/80.1/1.275/94/7
ML Florida: 5/4/1/1/0/3.98/20.1/1.52/21/5
-Olsen is very familiar to all Marlins fans, his stint with the team earlier this year building hope should AJ Burnett be dealt. Olsen was another player that I watched last season with Jupiter, and his start against Tampa in early July was impressive, the beginning of a second half domination of the Florida State League. Even to an admittedly young eye that has no semblance of scouting experience, Olsen looks like a future ace. His skinny frame comes to the plate quickly with a fastball that moves as if a body such as Roger Clemens should be producing it. In my opinion, he is more of a sure thing than Hermida, ready to take on a full major league load next season.
3. Yorman Bazardo, RHP (TRADED TO SEATTLE)
2005 Statistics
Carolina: 18 G/18 GS/8 W/6 L/0 SV/3.79 ERA/107 IP/1.29 WHIP/72 K/12 HR
Florida: 1/0/0/0/0/21.60/1.2/4.20/2/0
-See News and Notes for thoughts on the trade of Bazardo.
4. Jason Stokes, 1B
2005 Statistics
AAA Albuquerque: .283/.340/.674/5/15/3/16/2/0
Notes: Has missed most of the season with an inflamed left thumb.
5. Josh Willingham, C/1B
2005 Statistics
Albuquerque: .337 AVG/.469 OBP/.714/19/54/44/48/5/1
Florida: 0-2, 2 Ks
Playing Moneyball with Willingham: The type of hitter that the Marlins need to support Cabrera. He has an All-Star eye, with power to all fields and a willingness to hit in any count. May be considered a backup to Lo Duca for at least next season, but there is no reason to keep him out of the lineup beyond that. For 2006, he needs at least 250 PA between backing up Lo Duca and Delgado. He has dominated at every level, keeping him in Albuquerque would be bad for his growth.
6. Eric Reed, OF
2005 Statistics
Carolina: .255 AVG/.305 OBP /.299 SLG/1 HR/15 RBI/17 BB/62 K/23 SB/8 CS
Albuquerque: .275/.342/.377/1/2/3/19/7/6
Playing Moneyball with Reed: JP Lite. His BB/K ratio is scary, and coming off a hernia operation slowed his running game early in the season. His career SB % is much like JP?s, as you take the high number of failures with the absurd number of successes. I would have pegged Reed as deadline fodder before Bazardo, as I don?t see where his value lies to the team in its current state. For a guy who has never had an OPS over .800, this seems like a high ranking.
7. Taylor Tankersley, LHP
2005 Statistics
Low A Greensboro: 9 G/9 GS/2 W/4 L/0 SV/3.88 ERA/51 IP/1.35 WHIP/48 K/7 HR
Playing Moneyball with Tankersley: Too many home runs allowed, but with a almost a K per inning, it is expected. He?s going to be given time to develop, something the Marlins can afford to do with Willis, Burnett, Beckett, Olsen and Vargas forming the presumed rotation for 2006 or 2007. A 3/1 K/BB ratio is encouraging, so if Tankersley can keep his fastball down and turn some fly balls into ground balls, he?ll be the top of the rotation starter he is projected to be.
8. Jason Vargas, LHP
2005 Statistics
Greensboro: 5/5/4/1/0/0.80/33.2/0.78/33/1
High A Jupiter: 9/9/2/3/0/3.42/55.1/1.10/60/6
Carolina: 3/3/1/0/0/2.84/19/1.05/25/3
Florida: 4/1/1/0/0/3.48/10.1/1.39/11/0
Playing Moneyball with Vargas: From college superstar to major league starter, Vargas?s meteoric rise has been fun to watch. His numbers at every level are mind boggling, with the best being a K per inning everywhere, even in the majors. I saw him for the first time on Wednesday, when he came in after a lengthy rain delay to get the win. His polish is outstanding; he carries himself like a major leaguer despite being a pro for less than four months. While his makeup is great, his stuff is even better. I can see why he made every single level look so easy, as he absolutely embarrassed Jason Bay in a caught looking strikeout that capped off a fifth inning in which he struck out the side. I?m a betting man, and if Vegas had prop bets on the viability of a prospect turning into a Cy Young Winner, I?d bet the house on Vargas.
9. Robert Andino, SS
2005 Statistics
Carolina: .272 AVG/.331 OBP/.361 SLG/4 HR/35 RBI/29 BB/83 K/17 SB/4 CS
Andino is a fun player to watch, but his bat is not going to be anything special in the majors. He is another player that stands out; watching him play once is enough to understand what his strengths are. Today, he could be a better everyday fielding shortstop than a third of his major league counterparts. There are some encouraging trends in his statistical performance this season. His stolen base total is up, with a good success rate to boot. His strikeout total is still high, but his walk rate, believe it or not, is superior to his previous professional seasons. Alex Gonzalez is going to be serviceable for another two seasons, with Andino ready to challenge for the spot in 2007.
10. Trevor Hutchinson, RHP
Notes: Has not played in 2005. He left the Arizona Fall League early with right shoulder problems, with the Fish brass deciding to send Hutchinson under the knife in late March. The rotator cuff surgery will keep him out all of 2005, but I don?t imagine that this will hurt his status much. He was strong in Carolina last season, and should be a member of their rotation again in 2006. Fun Fact: He?s the brother of Chicago Bears QB and former Cardinals reliever Chad Hutchinson.
11. Josh Johnson, RHP
2005 Statistics
Carolina: 20 G/20 GS/9 W/4 L/0 SV/4.21 ERA/104.2 IP/1.44 WHIP/88 SO/3 HR
Playing Moneyball with Johnson: Well, he is damn imposing just standing around on the field that is for sure. I did not get a chance to see Johnson pitch during his full season in Jupiter last year, but during pregame warm-ups he is hard to miss. His numbers are steady throughout his minor league career, with a 2.3/1 K/BB ratio and ground balls dominating his arsenal. His style fits the current Marlins team, which can get after any ball on the ground and keep runners honest if the ball isn?t blasted into the gaps. He has a tough road to a spot in the current FLA rotation, and I would imagine that he will be trade bait come this time next season.
12. Josh Wilson, SS
2005 Statistics
Albuquerque: .265 AVG/.342 OBP/.454 SLG/13 HR/68 RBI/42 BB/80 SO/13 SB/7 CS
Playing Moneyball with Wilson: His plate discipline has improved, but it is not what it was in Carolina last season (42 BB/50 K), which seems more and more like an aberration. He is not hitting AAA pitching like a true prospect would in his second season there, so be cautious in expecting anything productive from Wilson at the major league level. Andino looks more likely, but between them, the Marlins may be better off going the free agent route when Gonzalez is done. Hey, Julio Lugo is a FA in 2006, Carlos Guillen a year after that. Hmm?
13. Luke Hagerty, LHP
Notes: Was terrible throughout spring training and, being a Rule 5 draft choice, was returned to the Cubs by the Marlins (He was R5?ed by the Orioles and traded to Florida) at the end of spring. Regret is not a feeling the Marlins have for this move, based on his performance in short season Boise (5 games, 0-1, 21 walks, 10 hits, 13 earned runs in 5.1 innings).
14. Randy Messenger, RHP
2005 Statistics
Albuquerque: 39 G/0 GS/4 W/2 L/7 SV/3.88 ERA/48.2 IP/1.30 WHIP/35 SO/5 HR
Florida: 11 G/0 GS/0 W/0 L/0 SV/5.11 ERA/12.1 IP/1.78 WHIP/9 SO/1 HR
-Messenger was the antithesis of Vargas and Olsen in his tryout with the big club earlier this year. That might be unfair to Randy, as he is not half the prospect either of those two are, nor was he given an opportunity to pitch in a meaningless spot like those two were. He had two really bad outings that combined for 1.1 IP and 6 ER, so his numbers are deceiving. His statistics in the minors are impressive, especially in the year and a half since being converted to relief. Only 24, Messenger has time to rebound with the Isotopes and go into spring 2006 the favorite for the 5th/6th/7th inning job.
15. Rick Vanden Hurk, RHP
2005 Statistics
Jupiter: 2 G/2 GS/0 W/1 L/0 SV/4.25 ERA/6.2 IP/1.05 WHIP6 /SO/0 HR
Greensboro: 4 G/4 GS/1 W/2 L/0 SV/2.45 ERA/22 IP/1.27 WHIP/26 SO/1 HR
Playing Moneyball with Vanden Hurk: Looks good, looks real good. Doesn?t walk many guys, not big on the long ball. Unfortunately, I did not get a chance to see Vanden Hurk in Jupiter?s final trip out to Florida? west coast this past weekend, as his numbers are intriguing. This is the type of pitcher that fits Dolphins? Stadium, keeping the ball away from the spacious outfield and on the ground. His progress has been slowed this year by biceps tendonitis, but he looks like a major league prospect for 2008.
News and Notes
-Florida acquires LHP Ron Villone from Seattle for AA pitchers Yorman Bazardo and Michael Flannery. Why? I don?t have a problem dealing prospects for immediate gratification, but Villone is not worth this much. Bazardo is a potential top of the rotation starter, and even with Florida?s abundance of young pitching, you can never have enough of those prospects. In reality, this package should have fetched Villone and Eddie Guardado from Seattle, but the Marlins fought a buyers market. The laws of supply and demand drove up the price for players who were not surefire answers to the problems of pennant contenders. Beinfest should have known this with the path of the Burnett negotiations. Instead, he pays a high price for a pitcher, who while I will admit is useful, may not be a Marlin beyond 2006. Villone was strong in Seattle, going 2-3 with a 2.45 ERA in 40.2 IP. Most impressive is his 41 Ks and .213 average against lefties. This is, quite simply, a move designed to payoff in playoff situations.
Chris Hoyler can be reached at mosley2k@hotmail.com |
