A lot has happened in Major League Baseball since the last Hanging Curve, including an injury to a future Hall of Famer (Mariano Rivera), the benching of another (Albert Pujols) and a career-week for a slugger (Josh Hamilton) on a path that could lead to Cooperstown.
If the Jays front office thinks they can form a starting rotation worthy of contending in the East in the next couple seasons, there is no reason to believe that they will not make a run at Prince Fielder.
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The Manny Ramirez to San Francisco story won't go away and appeals to the basest instincts of Giants' fans and their own front office. There isn't a segment of the baseball population that believes more ardently in the impact of a single slugger sharking in the middle of a lineup and how he can create a collection of overachievers around him.
Barry Bonds is the greatest left-handed hitter that I've ever seen play and Manny is his counterpart for me on the other side of the plate. Even at almost 37 years of age, he is teeming with talent and if they can get him on a two-year contract, I'd fully expect at least a .985 OPS over the duration of that deal.
For my upcoming 2009 team-by-team preview series, I will project the OPS for every regular in order to arrive at an expected team OPS and from there an expected number of runs scored per game. Here is what I'm expecting from the current projected lineup of the Giants:
C: Bengie Molina, .780
1B: Travis Ishikawa, .790
2B: Eugenio Velez, .725
3B: Pablo Sandoval, .830
SS: Edgar Renteria, .775
LF: Fred Lewis, .775
CF: Aaron Rowand, .800
RF: Randy Winn, .775
Factoring in a .500 OPS for the pitcher's slot/pinch hitters, that would give the Giants a team OPS of .750. Considering they had a .703 OPS in 2008, this leans on the generous side and assumes a bounce back season for Rowand and continued success for Sandoval who put up really good numbers in his 2008 cup of coffee.
But that bounce puts them in the middle of the pack offensively and probably around 3.75 runs per game. That would mean the Giants would need a sub-4.00 ERA in order to have a realistic chance at an above .500 record. They had a 4.38 ERA as a team in 2008 despite a Cy Young season from Tim Lincecum.
Let's adjust those OPS numbers for the inclusion of Manny Ramirez.
I nudged up the OPS totals for some of the hitters I expect to hit around Manny either in front of or behind him in the lineup. Players of Manny's caliber change the game when they're in the box, on deck and in the hole and then of course thereafter when he is getting on base in 40% of his plate appearances.
The adjusted OPS total puts the Giants at .786, which should equal a run per game total of approximately 4.25. This upgrade in runs comfortably nudges up their expected win total to 85. Maybe with a little luck along the way and better than expected seasons from a couple guys, especially a Rowand or Renteria, and then the Giants are a 90 win team. A 90 win team in the NL West is almost certainly a lock to win the division.
