| Authored by Christopher Reina - 27th October, 2009 - 2:32 pm
 For the first time since 1950, the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies will meet in the World Series. The Phillies return to the Fall Classic as defending champions, while the Yankees have ended their relatively long drought dating back to when they were upset in 2003 by the Florida Marlins.
In that '50 World Series, the stars for the Yankees were Joe DiMaggio, Yogi Berra, Johnny Mize, Phil Rizzuto, Whitey Ford and Allie Reynolds, while Philadelphia featured Del Ennis, Andy Seminick and Robin Roberts.
With a lineup that actually rivals the Yankees, the Phillies should be able to match their opponent in terms of pure power potential. Philadelphia had five hitters with 20 or more homers, compared to seven for the Yankees. But whereas New York posted a .362 OBP, first in the AL, the Phillies were a very average eighth in the NL with a mark of .334. The Phillies will hit their homers, but the Yankees must limit them to solo shots by keeping the bases clear from walks.
The Phillies have actually hit better than the Yankees during the playoffs with an .840/.800 advantage in the OPS department. They have been even more lights out with runners in scoring position, posting an OPS of 1.252 in a not-so-small sample size of 66 at bats, compared to a below typical .751 for the Yankees.
The Yankees' lineup, however will wear down Philadelphia starters by patiently taking pictures and invoking that circular lineup, especially if Melky Cabrera continues to hit in the ninth slot. The Phillies' starters will have trouble getting past the sixth inning due to inevitably high pitch counts and the Yankees' lineup is filled with too many professional hitters where facing a pitcher a third time results in a sharp OPS increase. During the regular season, the Yankees hit for an OPS of .859 when facing a starter for the third time and 1.128 during the fourth at bat or more.
The depth of the Phillies lineup 1-8 in comparison to NL teams gets a little neutralized with the addition of the DH, but Ben Francisco will likely start Game 1 in left field and he had an .843 OPS in 97 at bats since coming over in the Cliff Lee trade. The bottom of the order in Carlos Ruiz and Pedro Feliz isn't dreadful, especially because both players aren't easy to strikeout.
In the middle of the lineup, for as much as Alex Rodriguez has been the best offensive player of the postseason, Ryan Howard has matched him in almost every way minus the homer total. Howard has an OPS of 1.203 (compared to A-Rod's 1.516), with 14 RBIs in 31 at bats. Jayson Werth has five homers and a 1.207 OPS, while Shane Victorino has a 1.161 OPS.
Outside of Rodriguez and Derek Jeter, the Yankees bats have been relatively quiet, especially Mark Teixeira, who has a postseason OPS of .580.
Both teams will face an abnormal amount of left-handed pitchers, with CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and J.A. Happ all figuring to pitch significant innings. During the regular season, both teams were efficient against southpaws, with the Yankees having an .846 OPS compared to .787 for Philadelphia, ranking first and seventh respectively.
Former Cleveland teammates Sabathia and Lee are fairly sure things in Game 1, even though several Phillies have really good numbers against the former and Teixeira, Rodriguez, Jeter, Posada and Nick Swisher have hit the latter really well.
We'll see a pair of question marks in Game 2 with A.J. Burnett and Pedro Martinez. Martinez's prolonged brilliance against the Dodgers in Game 2 of that series will be difficult to duplicate against a more patient and potent Yankees' lineup. Burnett can be the best pitcher in this entire postseason on any given night, but he has a 4.42 ERA in his three starts, with a 13/10 K/BB ratio.
The Game 3 matchup will be Hamels and Pettitte, which would have appeared uneven this time last year, but Hamels has struggled with his command and has a 6.75 postseason ERA this year in his three starts. He hasn't been able to locate his pitches very well and his type of skill set will allow the Yankees to feast if he isn't sharp. Pettitte has a 2.37 ERA during his three postseason starts and has given up more than three earned runs in just three of his past 15 starts.
While giving the Yankees a slight edge in terms of offense and starting pitching, but assuming they will even out in the World Series, the two deciding factors will be homefield and the depth of the bullpens.
The Yankees have a 2.28 postseason ERA in 27.2 innings, compared to 3.24 from the Phillies in 25 innings. That is a fairly wide magian, but there are very clear trust issues in Girardi's bullpen outside of Mariano Rivera. Phil Hughes (5.79) and Joba Chamberlain (2.70) can strike any hitter out at any given time, but have been far from bulletproof. In close games, they will need to effectively bridge the gap to Rivera, because he won't be able to record more than one, possibly two six-out saves as he did to close the ALCS.
They also must have Damaso Marte and Phil Coke navigate through the difficult Philadelphia lefties.
For Philadelphia, we've seen the old Brad Lidge in the postseason and will have Brett Myers, J.A. Happ and Joe Blanton on deck to go along with Ryan Madson and Scott Eyre. Manual's bullpen is a ragtag group that will grind and pitch to contact.
I can't foresee Rivera blowing a lead in the 8th or 9th inning of any game. Raul Ibanez and Matt Stairs are the only hitters on the Phillies with more than 10 at bats and their numbers are horrible. His cutter is so devastating that it takes most hitters more than a dozen at bats to finally have a legitimate chance at succeeding.
I think this will be a six-game series with the Yankees winning on their homefield and Alex Rodriguez on top of a NYPD horse, not unlike Wade Boggs in 1996. That was the Yankees' first World Series win since 1978 and though the current gap is half as long, it surely feels like 18 years to Jeter, Rivera, Posada and Pettitte. |
