1. How steep will Manny's drop from his incredible August, September and October end up being?
2. Is Chad Billingsley prepared to anchor the rotation?
3. Can Rafael Furcal stay healthy?
4. Will one or more of Kemp, Ethier and Loney become legitimate stand-alone stars this season?
5. Is it permissible for someone raised hating the Dodgers to actually like this version of the club?
(Gratuitous sidebar: I couldn't tolerate any of the teams that had Mike Piazza, Eric Karros, Mike Scioscia or Eric Gagne featured and I also was raised to take some pride in Juan Marichal hitting Johnny Roseboro over the head with a bat, but there are a lot of things to like about the Dodgers these days. Manny Ramirez has always been my favorite right-handed hitter of all-time, their young core has the potential to become great, simultaneously in Paul O'Neill (Andre Ethier) and Eric Davis (Matt Kemp) type of ways and we live in the 'MLB Extra Innings Vin Scully Gets Returned To The Rest Of America' Era. I can't help but follow the Dodgers in the ways I would for a team I actually like.)
Great/Bad Expectations
It is fairly uncommon for the Dodgers to be built around their lineup rather than their pitching staff, but that is clearly the case this season as they are heavily invested at every position. They don't have a weak spot at any position and there are several NL West rivals that would be content starting Blake DeWitt and Juan Pierre, who will be lucky to get one or two starts per week.
Manny makes players that hit around him significantly better and he is in an ideal situation to bestow benefit to young players like Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and James Loney.
On the mound, the Dodgers will need Billingsley to once again be one of the most overlooked young starters in the game, plus another sub-4.00 ERA from Hiroki Kuroda. Clayton Kershaw, who just turned 21, is the wildcard. He finished the season strong and had settled in nicely at Dodger Stadium. Kershaw has the potential to extend his innings out to 150, with as many strikeouts and an ERA a touch below 4.00.
I've never been a fan of how Joe Torre manages bullpens, but the Dodgers have enough depth in Jonathan Broxton, Hong-Chih Kuo, Mota and Cory Wade to overcome any misuse.
Predicting Their Season With A Movie Trailer
San Francisco Giants
2008 Record: 72-90
2008 Team OPS: .703 (28th)
2008 Starters ERA: 4.34 (16th)
2008 Relievers ERA: 4.45 (24th)
2009 Projected Team OPS: .758
2009 Projected Starters ERA: 3.70
2009 Projected Relievers ERA: 4.10
*2009 Projected Finish: 2nd in NL West
1. Can Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez become consistent back end starters to push the Giants rotation into the top-3 in baseball?
2. Will Sandoval and Ishikawa be reliable .800+ OPS hitters this season?
3. Are Aaron Rowand and Randy Winn sunk costs in the outfield?
4. Is it possible for Tim Lincecum to duplicate his 2008 Cy Young season?
5. Can the Giants possibly score over 700 runs this season a season after scoring 640?
Great/Bad Expectations
The Giants pitching staff is ready for October, but their offense is a massive question mark. The Giants will go from 17th in team ERA up to the top-10, but that offense continues to struggle producing runs. Their bullpen has improved and they will need to have a lot of 2008 Angels kind of luck to win those close games.
Looking up and down that lineup, there isn't a sure .800 OPS of better bat in there, which is something you can't really say about any other team in baseball outside of Seattle.
Predicting Their Season With A Movie Trailer
Arizona Diamondbacks
2008 Record: 82-80
2008 Team OPS: .742 (19th)
2008 Starters ERA: 3.95 (5th)
2008 Relievers ERA: 4.09 (13th)
2009 Projected Team OPS:
2009 Projected Starters ERA:
2009 Projected Relievers ERA:
*2009 Projected Finish: 3rd in NL West
1. Is Max Scherzer ready to make it a Big 3 with Webb and Haren?
2. When will Justin Upton take that next step?
3. Can Mark Reynolds possibly lower that strikeout rate?
4. Is the bullpen strong enough?
5. Will this be the season Felipe Lopez finally sticks?
Great/Bad Expectations
Arizona has as many young talented bats (Chris Young, Upton, Stephen Drew, Mark Reynolds) as the Dodgers (Kemp, Ethier, Loney), but they are missing a Manny and that kind of difference is huge for a developing lineup. The D-Backs have something special brewing but it won't result in the postseason in 2009.
Long losing streaks don't happen with Webb and Haren taking the mound 40% of the time, but Bob Melvin doesn't have enough consistency in his lineup and in the bullpen to truly compete.
Predicting Their Season With A Movie Trailer
Colorado Rockies
2008 Record: 74-88
2008 Team OPS: .751 (16th)
2008 Starters ERA: 5.14 (27th)
2008 Relievers ERA: 4.13 (16th)
2009 Projected Team OPS:
2009 Projected Starters ERA:
2009 Projected Relievers ERA:
*2009 Projected Finish: 4th in NL West
2. Did the Rockies make a mistake by dealing Matt Holliday too soon?
3. Will the Rockies find a breakout player between Ryan Spilborghs, Seth Smith and Dexter Fowler?
4. Can Todd Helton get healthy again?
5. Will Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez have sub-4.00 ERAs again?
Great/Bad Expectations
The Rockies quickly descended from the World Series to mediocrity in 2008 and though they at least are built around Tulowitzki, there isn't a whole lot to build on beyond him.
Hitters aren't hard to replace in Colorado and attempting to build their system around arms is an easier way to succeed given the circumstances of the thin air and Cook, Jimenz and Corpas are a fairly solid start.
Predicting Their Season With A Movie Trailer
San Diego Padres
2008 Record: 63-99
2008 Team OPS: .707 (27th)
2008 Starters ERA: 4.38 (17th)
2008 Relievers ERA: 4.45 (25th)
2009 Projected Team OPS: .703
2009 Projected Starters ERA: 4.02
2009 Projected Relievers ERA: 4.23
*2009 Projected Finish: 5th in NL West
2. Will Adrian Gonzalez have another monster season?
3. What will ninth innings in San Diego feel like without 'Hell's Bells'?
4. Can Chris Young comeback?
5. How much does Brian Giles have left?
Great/Bad Expectations
The Padres and Rockies are both unspeakably bad baseball teams, play in polar opposite ballparks that dramatically favor the pitcher and hitter respectively and they faced in that one-game playoff just two seasons ago in Colorado. Other than the days Peavy pitches, there is no team that is more boring to watch than this one and there is little (i.e. nothing) coming up the pipeline in that farm system, so the only championship baseball being played in San Diego over the next few seasons will be in the WBC.
