1. Can Wright, Reyes, Beltran and Delgado stay as absurdly healthy as they did in 2008?
2. Can Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez and John Maine combine for an ERA under 4.00?
3. Will they get enough production out of 'not your typical New York' corner outfielders Daniel Murphy and Ryan Church?
4. Are the blown saves woes officially behind Charlie Manuel?
5. Is Johan Santana good for 33 starts and two more in the NLDS?
Great/Bad Expectations
On the law of averages, you really have to like the Mets in the NL East. The end of the past two seasons weren't strictly aberrations, the Mets clearly admitted that and are much stronger now because of it.
The Mets have as much high end talent as any team in the National League, with four offensive players that enter any given season capable of winning an MVP, plus the best starter of his generation. The health of those five players (Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Delgado and Santana for those scoring at home) is absolutely imperative if the Mets will mark the inaugural season of Citi Field with a playoff berth.
The Bobby Valentine teams had better overall depth and balance and because they rely so heavily on those four players, the rough patches to close each of the past two seasons are really unavoidable.
1. How will Hanley Ramirez's numbers be affected by moving to the third slot?
2. Will the young and very talented arms of the rotation stay healthy?
3. Is Jorge Cantu primed for a decline from 2008?
4. Will Cameron Maybin stick in the big leagues and win the NL ROY?
5. Can the Marlins' defense possibly commit less errors?
Great/Bad Expectations
The Marlins will need some luck to get there, but they weren't too far out of the NL East race in 2008 and starters Chris Volstad, Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez were all limited due to injuries. Fredi Gonzalez may have the best young pitching staff in the game on his hands if those three, plus the underappreciated Ricky Nolasco and Andrew Miller can remain healthy.
Everybody is looking to duplicate the Rays 2008 model, but the Marlins have been doing this for years and also have a powerful lineup that compares fairly well to the bats at Citi Field and Citizen's Bank Park. They could even exceed them if Jeremy Hermida bounces back, plus a bust-out season from rookie Maybin. It also helps that Ramirez should be an MVP candidate.
The real difference between the Marlins and those two teams will be at the end of games when defense and the pitchers coming out of the mound really matter most. Matt Lindstrom is ideally a setup man considering how hittable he is and acquiring a closer midseason will be necessary if they are to make a genuine push.
I think a Florida World Series is almost as likely as a New York one this season.
Predicting Their Season With A Movie Trailer
Not a movie trailer, but the opening of 'Dexter' fits in for the Miami backdrop and their unsuspecting underdog status to slay the biggies, the Mets and Phillies fitting in for Jimmy Smits.
Philadelphia Phillies
2008 Record: 92-70
2008 Team OPS: .770 (7th)
2008 Starters ERA: 4.23 (13th)
2008 Relievers ERA: 3.22 (2nd)
2009 Projected Team OPS: .767
2009 Projected Starters ERA: 4.35
2009 Projected Relievers ERA: 3.34
*2009 Projected Finish: 3rd in NL East
1. Will the lack of rotation depth wear out that excellent bullpen?
2. Can Ryan Howard hit more consistently?
3. Is Brett Myers trending upwards or downwards?
4. Will the exchange of Raul Ibanez in place of Pat Burrell be a net loss due to the now very left-handed lineup?
5. Will 2009 be Chase Utley's turn to win an MVP?
Great/Bad Expectations
No World Series winner has repeated since the 2000 Yankees and no team has even returned to the Fall Classic since the 2001 Yankees and I don't expect the Phillies to Buck Martinez the trend this year. They have three of the best hitters in the game in Utley, Howard and Jimmy Rollins, nice complementary guys in Shane Victorino and Raul Ibanez, a true ace and great bullpen depth.
But the depth in their starting rotation is unquestionably lacking. Myers is a box of chocolates, Jamie Moyer is unlikely to have another 3.71 ERA season, Joe Blanton is inconsistent and Chan Ho Park always seems to be fool's gold.
Predicting Their Season With A Movie Trailer
Atlanta Braves
2008 Record: 72-90
2008 Team OPS: .753 (15th)
2008 Starters ERA: 4.60 (20th)
2008 Relievers ERA: 4.25 (21st)
2009 Projected Team OPS:
2009 Projected Starters ERA:
2009 Projected Relievers ERA:
*2009 Projected Finish: 4th in NL East
1. Still brilliant when healthy, can Chipper Jones stay healthy?
2. Is this the Braves' Opening Day worst rotation since the 80's?
3. Is Jordan Schafer ready for everyday duties in center?
4. When will we see Tommy Hanson?
5. Will Derek Lowe remain consistently effective and consistently durable as he was with the Dodgers?
Great/Bad Expectations
Atlanta has won with teams that are less talented than their rivals before and they have a realistic playoff chance this season. Their rotation is shakier than usual, but in Lowe and Javier Vazquez, they have very good innings-eating anchors to go with the potential upside of Jair Jurrjens, Kenshin Kawakami and eventually Hanson, who is capable of greatness.
Their lineup can also score a lot of runs because Jones still puts up MVP numbers, Brian McCann may be the MLB's best offensive catcher this season and there is still a lot of promise still left in Jeff Francoeur and Jordan Schafer.
The Braves also have a stable relief core in Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano and Peter Moylan, who will shorten up games effectively.
I have Bobby Cox's ballclub predicted fourth, but I think they are one of four teams with a realistic chance of winning this division and would be many analysts' favorite in the NL West.
Predicting Their Season With A Movie Trailer
Washington Nationals
2008 Record: 59-102
2008 Team OPS: .696 (29th)
2008 Starters ERA: 4.97 (23rd)
2008 Relievers ERA: 4.18 (19th)
2009 Projected Team OPS: .704
2009 Projected Starters ERA: 4.76
2009 Projected Relievers ERA: 4.23
*2009 Projected Finish: 5th in NL East
1. Will Jordan Zimmermann walk away with the NL ROY?
2. What kind of numbers will Adam Dunn put up in D.C.?
3. Can Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes meet that incredible potential?
4. Will Stephen Strasburg be called up in September?
5. Is Ryan Zimmerman ready to prove he's a legitimate franchise cornerstone?
Great/Bad Expectations
Even with the addition of Adam Dunn's bat, the Nationals are a long ways away from getting themselves out of the bottom third offensively, but the Nationals could have one of the best five rotations in the game in a year or two. Zimmermann looks like a legitimate ace in waiting, John Lannan and Scott Olsen are relatively young middle of the rotation anchors, Shairon Martis is potentially a sleeper stud and then you have Stephen Strasburg, who has undoubtedly become overhyped by everyone in baseball, including us, but he's unquestionably real deal Holyfield.
