1. Can Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar meet their potential up the middle?
2. Will this be John Lackey's final year in Anaheim?
3. Is Kendry Morales the real deal?
4. How much does Vladimir Guerrero have left?
5. What kind of leash will they have on Jose Arredondo?
Great/Bad Expectations
There is no team with an easier path to the playoffs each season than the Angels. They play in a four-team division, compared to the normal five and even the six of the NL Central, plus the A's are forced to sell every few seasons, while the Rangers and Mariners have made some very questionable free agent signings in recent years.
The Angels still have the best pitching in the AL West and are the surest bet to reach the postseason in all of baseball, but this isn't a team that I especially love. Joe Saunders' poor strikeout rate makes that 3.41 ERA unsustainable, Lackey is already hurt and I think Guerrero will continue to trend donwards. After losing Mark Teixeira, signing Bobby Abreu on the cheap was about as fortuitous as it gets, so the Angels will score runs, but are relying heavily on a lot of unproven bats.
One final note, the Angels were a 100-game winner in 2008, but their Pythagorean record was just 88-74.
Predicting Their Season With A Movie Trailer
Texas Rangers
2008 Record: 79-83
2008 Team OPS: .816 (1st)
2008 Starters ERA: 5.51 (29th)
2008 Relievers ERA: 5.15 (30th)
2009 Projected Team OPS: .806
2009 Projected Starters ERA: 5.20
2009 Projected Relievers ERA: 5.05
*2009 Projected Finish: 2nd in AL West
1. Can Josh Hamilton repeat or even improve his 2008 numbers?
2. If they're in contention after the break, will they push Neftali Feliz and/or Derek Holland up to the bigs?
3. Will Jarrod Saltalamacchia finally start hitting like the can't miss prospect he was projected to be when they acquired him in the Mark Teixeira trade?
4. Can the Rangers possibly have a team ERA below 5.00?
5. How well will Elvis Andrus adjust to big league pitching?
Great/Bad Expectations
The Rangers can throw just about any combination of hitters out there during the middle of the Texas summer and score a lot of runs. But with Chris Davis and Nelson Cruz joining Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Hank Blalock and Michael Young, opposing pitchers don't have a lot of gimmes in that lineup.
No matter how many runs they do score, they will need substantial improvements from their pitching staff. Back in the Johnny Oates playoff days of the late 90's, they were still near the bottom in ERA, but not on the bottom rung like they were in 2008. Their staff was better in 2007, but that was mainly due to an excellent bullpen that finished fifth in all of baseball in ERA with a mark of 3.71.
Predicting Their Season With A Movie Trailer
Oakland Athletics
2008 Record: 75-86
2008 Team OPS: .686 (30th)
2008 Starters ERA: 4.29 (14th)
2008 Relievers ERA: 3.50 (4th)
2009 Projected Team OPS: .735
2009 Projected Starters ERA: 4.40
2009 Projected Relievers ERA: 3.86
*2009 Projected Finish: 3rd in AL West
1. How will Matt Holliday's numbers deflate out of Coors Field?
2. Will they have any starters with a sub-4.00 ERA?
3. How many sub-3.20 OBP hitters will they have?
4. Will the Jason Giambi reunion be more productive than the Griffey one in Seattle?
5. Can the young arms contribute?
Great/Bad Expectations
Billy Beane was admirably aggressive this winter and I like all of the acquisitions, but I don't see how they have enough pitching to contend with the Angels. Justin Duchscherer is always a WHIP machine when he's healthy, but he won't be until the middle of May and beyond him, Bob Geren is looking at mediocre talent like Dana Eveland and Josh Outman (awesome name!). They will need great seasons out of top prospects like Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill and eventually Gio Gonzalez.
Joey Devine's magical SWHIP and Brad Ziegler's almost absurd dominance with a 4.5 K/9 rate are both unsustainable, but the Russ Springer signing add bulk to the bullpen.
Offensively, the A's were the worst in baseball in 2008 and while Holliday and Giambi will help, this isn't Coors Field and it isn't 2001. Eric Chavez cannot stay healthy, Jack Cust is the AL version of Matt Dunn and Nomar Garciaparra will probably be overused.
3. How many at bats will Ken Griffey finish the season with?
4. Is Brandon Morrow now a closer for life?
5. What kind of skipper will Don Wakamatsu be in year one?
Great/Bad Expectations
The expectations in Seattle were incredibly high in 2008 and as Adam Jones and Chris Tillman become budding stars in Baltimore, the Mariners are in full rebuild mode while the Griffey return buoys a fan base listening to more KEXP than Mariners games.
There aren't too many potential positives other than two very good front end starters. They are overpaying Carols Silva, Jarrod Washburn and even Ichiro Suzuki.
If only they had Stephen Strasburg available in September, but the Nationals appear deadlocked on drafting the SDSU ace with the first overall pick in June.
