1. Can Cliff Lee be 80% of what he was as the 2008 AL Cy Young?
2. How much will Kerry Wood influence the bullpen?
3. Is it possible for Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez to bounce back?
4. Is this the year Shin-Soo Choo busts out for stardom?
5. Will Grady Sizemore be ready to win an MVP
Great/Bad Expectations
The Indians have as much talent as any club in the AL Central, but have a lot of question marks beyond Grazy Sizemore. Their lineup will score a lot of runs with underrated hitters like Jhonny Peralta, Ryan Garko and Mark DeRosa. With the baseline production of those four hitters, comebacks from Pronk and Martinez, plus Choo and his All-Star potential, the Indians could conceivably flirt with an .800 OPS. I'm curious to see Matt LaPorta get a few hundred at bats this season as well, who ripped up spring pitchers.
Now that the bullpen has improved with Wood as the anchor, the starting rotation looks very iffy from top to bottom. Lee is of course coming off a Cy Young 2008, but he's looked horrible in the spring and I'm not sure if I am read to believe Fausto Carmona is back. They at least have some proven talent, because backing up Lee and Carmona will be Carl Pavano, Anthony Reyes and Scott Lewis, none of which inspire heaps of confidence.
Predicting Their Season With A Movie Trailer
Chicago White Sox
2008 Record: 89-74
2008 Team OPS: .780 (6th)
2008 Starters ERA: 4.09 (9th)
2008 Relievers ERA: 4.13 (17th)
2009 Projected Team OPS: .772
2009 Projected Starters ERA: 4.12
2009 Projected Relievers ERA: 4.21
*2009 Projected Finish: 2nd in AL East
1. Will the starters be as effective as they were in 2008?
2. Can Carlos Quentin prove to be a legitimate slugger?
3. What's left in Dye, Thome and Konerko's tank?
4. Does Alexi Ramirez become the AL's best shortstop by a Cuban country mile?
5. Are they relying too much on youngsters like Dewayne Wise and Chris Getz?
Great/Bad Expectations
For my money, the White Sox are an excessively overlooked team in the AL Central. They have excellent starting pitching depth in Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Jose Contreras and they have a whole crew of sluggers in their lineup.
The biggest concern for me is how the old guys will be able to realistically mash at even 75% of their previous forms. There should be enough runs to go around and I have a lot of faith in the competitiveness that comes down from Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen to will this club into contention as the worst case scenario.
Predicting Their Season With A Movie Trailer
Minnesota Twins
2008 Record: 88-75
2008 Team OPS: .748 (17th)
2008 Starters ERA: 4.32 (15th)
2008 Relievers ERA: 3.91 (10th)
2009 Projected Team OPS: .735
2009 Projected Starters ERA: 4.24
2009 Projected Relievers ERA: 4.06
*2009 Projected Finish: 3rd in AL Central
3. Will Francisco Liriano be healthy and 2006 effective?
4. Can the luck/cluth of 2008 carryover?
5. What kind of the numbers will the starters put up?
Great/Bad Expectations
The Twins conceded the 2008 season before it began, but they still ended up in a rare one-game playoff against the White Sox. This season, Liriano is a few more months removed from T.J. surgery, Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey are a few months older and Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young and Denard Span are a few months more mature.
The addition of Joe Crede is also potentially an excellent one, but they will need a healthy Michael Cuddyer and Joe Mauer in order to contend. Cuddyer has looked excellent in camp, but it is unlikely Mauer will be 100% at any point in 2009.
Depending on health, the stickiness of the rotation and the development of those young outfielders, the Twins probably have the most upside of any team in this division, but I think there will be just a little magic missing during their final season at the Homer Dome.
Predicting Their Season With A Movie Trailer
Kansas City Royals
2008 Record: 75-87
2008 Team OPS: .717 (25th)
2008 Starters ERA: 4.62 (21st)
2008 Relievers ERA: 4.26 (22nd)
2009 Projected Team OPS: .740
2009 Projected Starters ERA: 4.54
2009 Projected Relievers ERA: 4.34
*2009 Projected Finish: 4th in AL Central
3. Will Mike Jacobs' slugging and OBP have a difference of more than 200 points again?
4. Can Teahen, Butler and Gordon all simultaneously have breakout seasons?
5. Do the Royals have the best bullpen in the AL Central?
Great/Bad Expectations
Kansas City is a team that I actually like a lot this season. I don't like them to leap over the Indians, White Sox or Twins, but they won't be a very fun team to play and the 2010 playoffs are certainly realistic. Bringing in Coco Crisp to front a lineup with some very good young talent in Billy Butler, Alex Gordon and Mark Teahen, was a brilliant maneuver.
They will be able to score enough runs to stay in games, but how well the starters beyond Greinke and Gil Meche bridge to that potentially dominant bullpen is a big concern.
The Royals also have a ton of gas late in games with Joakim Soria, Juan Cruz and Kyle Farnsworth, which should prevent many blown victories.
Predicting Their Season With A Movie Trailer
Detroit Tigers
2008 Record: 74-88
2008 Team OPS: .784 (4th)
2008 Starters ERA: 5.03 (25th)
2008 Relievers ERA: 4.69 (27th)
2009 Projected Team OPS: .774
2009 Projected Starters ERA: 4.92
2009 Projected Relievers ERA: 4.52
*2009 Projected Finish: 5th in AL Central
1. Can the Tigers be lumped into the auto bailout?
2. Who can we realistically compare Edwin Jackson?
3. Are too many of the pieces just too old?
4. Will Miguel Cabrera settle into Detroit?
5. Is Justin Verlander ready to rebound?
Great/Bad Expectations
I was embarrassing off on my 2008 prediction for the Tigers, so I will borrow from the former President and say 'fool me once, shame on you. If you fool me- you can't get fooled again.' The Tigers may have finished fourth in OPS, but they didn't come anywhere close to the 1,000 runs I thought they were capable of scoring.
Expectations are a 180 away fro what they were this time last year and they actually have the chance to sneak up on a lot of people. Verlander seems to have figured it out and with a little more luck, he should be back to his 2006-07 form. Armando Galarraga seems ready to repeat his 2008, plus Jeremy Bonderman and Jackson aren't lacking in the talent department. Top prospect Rick Porcello is a southpaw X-factor as well.
Even though Gary Sheffield, Ivan Rodriguez and Edgar Renteria are gone, they can still put up runs in a hurry, especially if Curtis Granderson can play a full season. The Tigers got off to a slow start with Granderson on the shelf last season, which was an overlooked reason why.
