1. Will CC, Joba, Wang and AJ each make 30+ starts to give the Yankees their best rotation since the late 90s?
2. How will Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada rebound from slump and injury respectively?
3. Can Brett Gardner/Melky Cabrera and Cody Ransom perform on an everyday basis?
4. Will the Yankees finally approach adequacy defensively?
5. How much time will A-Rod miss due to the hip and how will he perform post-PED disclosure?
Great/Bad Expectations
The Yankees scored 968 runs in 2007 and just 789 last season, which is an extremely rare and frighteningly severe dip. Was this a sign of an aging offensive core or simply a collection of off seasons and injuries? It was probably a bit of both and they addressed their age problem by trading out Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu for Teixeira and Xavier Nady.
I fully expect Cano to rebound from his miserable 2008 and I don't think this will be the season in which Derek Jeter, Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui fall off dramatically.
But the Yankees have done enough remodeling on the mound to offset an offense that scores maybe 830 runs instead of 950. Sabathia, Joba Chamberlain, Chien-Ming Wang, Burenett and Andy Pettitte can easily combine for a 3.60 ERA should they all stay healthy.
The Red Sox and Rays are both too good to make the playoffs clearly, but if things go even 75% right for the Yankees, they will return to October baseball after a one year intermission.
Predicting Their Season With A Movie Trailer
For me, the theme of the Yankees offseason was Aggressive Expansion from 'The Dark Knight', but Rodriguez took a lot of that momentum away. A-Rod is in a situation right now that is similar to when Batman was driving his Batmobile in the movie below, but the Penguin was actually controlling it and running into absolutely everything. At least A-Rod has very nearly reached a point of saturation, between his cousin, the Details kissing himself picture, the stripper in Toronto, his hip, Madonna, Selena Roberts and the call girls at the Four Seasons to be bulletproof. He is so scandal-ridden that anything short of legal incarceration can't really hurt him too badly. Maybe that will be a liberating feeling for him when he returns and that could be a liberation which will alter his playoff fortunes.
Boston Red Sox
2008 Record: 95-67
2008 Team OPS: .805 (2nd)
2008 Starters ERA: 4.02 (8th)
2008 Relievers ERA: 4.00 (11th)
2009 Projected Team OPS: .790
2009 Projected Starters ERA: 3.91
2009 Projected Relievers ERA: 3.72
*2009 Projected Finish: 2nd in AL East, AL Wildcard
1. How much will the Red Sox miss Manny's bat over a full season?
2. Which of Boston's eight starters gets the most trips to the mound?
3. Can Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis match their respective MVP and near-MVP seasons of 2008?
4. Will Jason Bay make Boston his permanent home?
5. What kind of fourth outfielder will Rocco Baldelli be for the Red Sox?
Great/Bad Expectations
The Red Sox have been transitioning for a few seasons now, at least offensively, and that is in full swing with Manny Ramirez out of the picture and David Ortiz seemingly in irreversible decline. The line-up is now built around Youkilis, Pedroia and Tito Francona hopes Jacoby Ellsbury and Bay also join that main nucleus for the next seven seasons.
Their rotation is excellent and extremely deep with John Smoltz, Clay Buchholz and Justin Masteron ready behind Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Brad Penny and Tim Wakefield. That kind of depth is practically absurd, but very valuable considering the propensity of injuries that several of those pitchers tend to be plagued by.
Boston has upgraded their defense over the Cowboy Up years and I really like the Takashi Saito signing, who will join Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima to form one of the best end of game trios in all of baseball.
Predicting Their Season With A Movie Trailer
Tampa Bay Rays
2008 Record: 97-65
2008 Team OPS: .762 (10th)
2008 Starters ERA: 3.95 (6th)
2008 Relievers ERA: 3.55 (5th)
2009 Projected Team OPS: .774
2009 Projected Starters ERA: 4.02
2009 Projected Relievers ERA: 3.70
*2009 Projected Finish: 3rd in AL East
1. Can Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena, Pat Burrell and B.J Upton combine to hit 110 homers?
2. Will James Shields and Matt Garza have the same success with a relatively low K-rate?
3. Are the Rays now better equipped to hit lefties?
4. Will the bullpen still be a successful ship without a true anchor?
5. When will David Price join the rotation?
Great/Bad Expectations
The glitter has not faded from that star in the 'R' in their uniforms and even though returning to the playoffs is far from certain, meaningful baseball will certainly be played in September for the second consecutive season and only the second season in the Rays' history.
Upton and Longoria will only improve and forgetting about Carl Crawford, who won't turn 28 until August, is a bad oversight. Their top-four is very dangerous and makes life on the Burrells, Dioner Navarros and Akinori Iwamuras much easier.
I think the expectations for the rotation are a little unrealistic and Shields, Garza and Andy Sonnanstine will regress. Scott Kazmir will continue to be excellent for as long as he's healthy and the eventual injection of Price will breath some life into the rotation.
The Rays bullpen doesn't have the wattage of a Rivera or Papelbon, but they have experienced closers in Troy Percival and Jason Isringhausen, plus the utterly dominant Grant Balfour and underrated Dan Wheeler.
Predicting Their Season With A Movie Trailer
Toronto Blue Jays
2008 Record: 86-76
2008 Team OPS: .731 (22nd)
2008 Starters ERA: 3.72 (1st)
2008 Relievers ERA: 2.94 (1st)
2009 Projected Team OPS: .745
2009 Projected Starters ERA: 4.25
2009 Projected Relievers ERA: 3.15
*2009 Projected Finish: 4th in AL East
1. Is Vernon Wells ready (i.e. healthy) to perform at the kind of level he is being paid?
2. How will Travis Snider adjust to the big leagues?
3. Will it be humanly possible for their pitching staff to lead all of baseball in starter and reliever ERA despite the losses via free agency and injury?
4. Can the Blue Jays' offense ever be good enough to let Roy Halladay pitch in the postseason?
5. Does Cito Gaston have any of that early 90's magic left in him on this reunion tour?
Great/Bad Expectations
The best case scenario for the Jays is they have an exact replication of their 2008 season on the mound and defensively, while getting a ROY campaign from Snider, a comeback year from Wells and surprising seasons from Lyle Overbay, Aaron Hill and Adam Lind.
Toronto should be better offensively and score more than just 714 runs, but they will almost certainly yield more than 610 runs. Burnett is in the Bronx, Shaun Marcum is out for the season due to Tommy John surgery and who knows when Dustin McGowan will return because of elbow problems. Jesse Litsch remains, but there are only a few pitchers who strikeout nearly half as many batters as they pitch innings while having an ERA in the 3.00's.
Trading out Burnett, Marcum and McGowan for David Purcey, Brad Mills and Ricky Romero is a net loss that is almost too massive to calculate and even another Cy Young from Halladay won't really matter.
Predicting Their Season With A Movie Trailer
Baltimore Orioles
2008 Record: 68-93
2008 Team OPS: .762 (11th)
2008 Starters ERA: 5.51 (30th)
2008 Relievers ERA: 4.57 (26th)
2009 Projected Team OPS: .770
2009 Projected Starters ERA: 5.07
2009 Projected Relievers ERA: 4.65
*2009 Projected Finish: 5th in AL East
1. Will their pitching staff be as disastrous as they were in 2008 and essentially ever year since the late 90's?
2. Can Aubrey Huff sustain his resurgence?
3. Will Adam Jones have a breakout season?
4. When will the Orioles upgrade their starters with Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta?
5. Most importantly, when will Baltimore be taken over by Matt Wieters?
Great/Bad Expectations
The middle of their lineup is a lot closer in comparison to the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays than their pitching. They don't have the depth of those three clubs, but in 2008 Aubrey Huff had an OPS of .912, Nick Markakis was at .897, while Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora and Luke Scott were all over .800. Wigginton should join that .800 club and I like the odds of Adam Jones improving to the high .700's. He has a lot more pop in him and I can see him increase those nine homers, 21 doubles and seven triples.
Jeremy Guthrie should have an ERA right under 4.00 in almost 200 innings, but they will have at least 13 different starts again this season. Their pitching staff will remain a fluid and frustrating situation until and unless their three big prospect arms are ready.
