Last year we created the Hands on Runs formula to determine how much weight an individual player carries in his line-up. Through the first part of May, which players have been most valuable?
The Royals have been major players in the free agent market, making a big run at Andruw Jones while signing Jose Guillen, but they did lose David Riske to the Brewers.
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Entering 2008, Ryan Howard was the essence of the term ‘pure power hitter.’
Over the previous two seasons, he produced 105 home runs and 287 RBI. The fear of him putting a ball over the fence or changing a game with the swing of a bat led to 72 intentional walks over that same time span, second only to Barry Bonds during that period.
Even the argument that Howard’s production was somewhat inflated by playing in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the Majors is shown to be fallacy when checking the numbers. In the last two seasons Howard has hit more home runs on the road (53) than he has at Citizens Bank Park (52).
Given that lofty track record, those who remember his brilliance in the past are finding it difficult to watch Howard at the plate this season.
As Major League Baseball makes its way through May, only Troy Tulowitzki, who recently landed on the disabled list, is a statistically worse hitter among everyday players than Howard.
While Howard struggled at the beginning of last season, his .167 batting average to start Thursday is almost sixty points lower than last year‘s early season slump. His six home runs puts him on a pace for somewhere around 27 to 28 for the season. While that would be average Major League production for most first basemen, that’s only slightly more than half Howard’s yearly average from ’06 to ’07 (also keep in mind, too, that Howard hit 22 home runs, only five less than his current 2008 pace, in just half a season in 2005).
All that said, the most alarming aspect about Howard’s start are his strikeouts. Howard struck out 181 times two years ago and a MLB record setting 199 times last year.
Those days are long gone.
With his 50 strikeouts, he has set a pace of more than 230 for the season.
To his credit, Howard has not pushed the panic button. When questioned about his performance over the last couple of weeks, his general response has been that he is just a slow starter, and he believes he is close to turning it around.
But there is a fine line between confidence and denial.
Howard, if anything, has regressed from the middle of April. On April 17th in a 10-2 win over the Houston Astros, Howard went 2 for 4 with a home run and five RBI. Since that game, he is 8 for 63 with two home runs, seven RBI, and 29 strikeouts.
Exactly why Howard is slumping as badly as he is could be a combination of factors. He appears to be standing too far off the plate, and his timing is way off on breaking pitches. Phillies’ Manager Charlie Manuel mentioned at one point during this stretch that he would like to see Howard stand closer to the pitcher in the batter’s box. However, even after taking the suggestion, it does not appear to have worked.
With the Phillies currently jockeying back and forth with the Mets and Marlins on a day-to-day basis for the top spot in the NL East standings, fan reaction to Howard has been fairly tepid. But if the Phillies were to fall significantly behind the pace, the piercing gazes of fans would likely fall on Howard and possibly compound the problem by adding a whole new element to his struggles.
As for himself, Howard could not have picked a worse time, or a worse season, to get off to this bad a start. He is on the heels of a record setting $10 million arbitration victory for a player with as little service time as him. In the aftermath, much was made of the allegedly stratospheric contract demands that Howard’s camp made, both before and during the hearing, for the Phillies to sign him long-term (somewhere in the ballpark of $200 million).
At this point, an asking price anywhere near that looks absolutely foolish given the fact that, close to a month and a half into the season, Howard has contributed next to nothing as the team‘s cleanup hitter. And in terms of securing a long-term contract, the longer Howard struggles, the more leverage he loses for future negotiations.
Now, if he hits his stride and surges his way through the summer, most of his slow start will be forgotten as it was last season. But the difference between 2007 and 2008, other than the hole is much deeper this time, is that there seems to be no end in sight.
Last year, when Howard started to come around, you could see his adjustments in the box and the return of his timing at the plate. This time, there is no tangible progress in Howard’s day-to-day at bats. He actually seems to look worse each time he steps in, and the stats over the last month bear that out.
And the bottom line, just in terms of pure numbers, is that the longer Howard struggles, the less likely it becomes he will approach anywhere near the numbers he posted in 2007.
