The Royals have been major players in the free agent market, making a big run at Andruw Jones while signing Jose Guillen, but they did lose David Riske to the Brewers.
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If 2008 is the last time Phillies' fans see leftfielder Pat Burrell in red pinstripes, it is shaping up to be one hell of an encore.
Burrell is currently hitting .351, with 8 HR's (2nd overall behind teammate Chase Utley), and 23 RBI's (1st overall and tied with former Phillie Von Hayes for the franchise record for RBI in April).
But what is most impressive are his numbers with runners in scoring position this season, a statistic that has largely been his Achilles' heel throughout his career. Burrell hit .222 with runners in scoring position in 2006, and .258 in 2007.
On Tuesday evening, in the ninth inning of a game in which the Phillies trailed the Rockies 6-5 with the bases loaded and Colorado closer Manny Corpas on the mound, Burrell blasted a bases clearing double to left-center field which gave the Phils an 8-6 lead, just one of many clutch hits on his way to amassing an eye-popping .529 RISP average this season.
Burrell is in the final year of a six-year, $50 million contract. The contract was largely criticized by fans as an albatross around the franchise’s neck especially with $27 million of the total being back loaded into 2007 and 2008. But the reality of the situation is that Burrell stands to make more in free agency.
Torii Hunter is a gold glove defender in centerfield, but in terms of offensive production, his numbers are a notch below Burrell’s three year average totals of 30 HR's, 103 RBI, and 104 BB, with a .392 OBP. Hunter received a five year, $90 million deal from the Angels this off-season.
Former Phillie Aaron Rowand, whose career year in 2007 still falls significantly short of the output of any individual season of Burrell’s over the last three years was rewarded with a five year, $60 million contract by the San Francisco Giants.
Burrell, based on his track record alone, projects to fall somewhere in-between the two. But with his start to the 2008 season, the more he hits the higher his price could go.
Part of that is due to the scarcity of right-handed power in the 2009 free agent class. Manny Ramirez and Vladimir Guerrero both have fairly favorable club options in their contracts which suggests that the options will be picked up by their respective teams. With them off the market, Burrell, who turns 31, is arguably the best right-handed power hitter available with other options including Moises Alou, 42 years old this off-season, and Jacque Jones, 34 years old this off-season.
The Phillies have an interesting dilemma on their hands. Due to a self-imposed soft cap on the team’s payroll that seems to fluctuate between $95-$105 million per season, the decision whether to extend Pat Burrell will be affected as much by their dealings with superstar first baseman Ryan Howard, ace starter Cole Hamels, and recently acquired closer Brad Lidge, as it will by their dealings with Burrell himself.
Howard was awarded a record $10 million in arbitration this year. ESPN’s Jayson Stark reported after the hearing that Howard’s camp was demanding in the ballpark of a seven year, $200 million deal to sign him long-term. Phillies' General Manager Pat Gillick and Assistant General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. have suggested the team is in no hurry to sign Howard, so his salary will most likely take another jump in arbitration next season.
Hamels is arbitration eligible for the first time in his career and will see a considerable bounce from his $500,000 club-controlled contract this season, either either by a long-term offer from the Phillies or his own hearings.
The situation is a little less certain with Lidge. He is an unrestricted free agent after the 2008 season. The barometer for what Lidge could command on the free agent market may be indicated by the four year, $46 million deal signed by closer Francisco Cordero with the Cincinnati Reds this past off-season.
Without elevating the team’s payroll, the math of paying Howard, Hamels, Lidge, and Burrell gets very difficult. A deciding factor in how the Phillies juggle their stars could be the play of outfielder Greg Golson in Class AA - Reading this season.
Golson, a prototypical five-tool prospect, hit .284 with 12 HR's, 52 RBI, and 25 SB's in 97 games at Class A - Clearwater last season. However, he struck out 124 times in that span with only 21 walks.
He is off to a hot start in Reading this season hitting .333 with 2 HR's, 15 RBI, and 7 SB's in 19 games. But his strikeout to walks ratio is still a cause for concern with 23 K to only 6 BB in that span.
That may suggest he needs a full year at AAA in 2009 to work out that part of his game, which would leave the Phillies scrambling to fill leftfield if Burrell signs elsewhere.
One thing is certainly clear, and that is if the Phillies' organization inevitably needs to raise their payroll, or there are some difficult decisions on the horizon. And, Burrell could be the first casualty of that process.
