Albert Pujols and Tim Lincecum are firmly embedded as the top-two players in our rankings, but Justin Morneau, Dan Haren and Chase Utley aren't too far behind.
There has been some 40-40 buzz surrounding Matt Kemp this spring, but Grady Sizemore and Hanley Ramirez are more realistic candidates for that hallowed club currently featuring the who's who of PED legends.
Yankees' third baseman Alex Rodriguez believes that his relationship with Madonna will allow him to bring a championship to the Bronx in 2009.
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By Christopher Reina
What the 2010 MLB free agent class lacks in pure star wattage, it at least somewhat makes up for in depth. We won't see free agents sign for record-breaking deals like we did last winter when CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira signed with the Yankees, but there are a couple of A.J. Burnett level players that could make a sizable difference.
Matt Holliday: It is extremely difficult to accurately judge Matt Holliday with the Coors Field splits and the difference in how he performed with the A's and Cardinals this season.
He has a career OPS of 1.066 at Coors Field and .808 in his road games, which has to be especially alarming to a team with a pitcher-friendly park like the Mets. Perhaps it is a comfort issue, as he has a career OPS of 1.173 at Busch Stadium since that kind of split almost certainly goes beyond the thinness of the air.
Over the course of his six-season career, Holliday has a .933 OPS and is generally good for about 30 homers per season.
Holliday was unquestionably a disappointment during his 93 games with the A's in the American League, but an .831 OPS is far from dreadful. He of course rebounded extremely well after he was dealt to St. Louis, hitting .353/.419/.604 in the slot behind Albert Pujols.
He is also an above average defensive left field, while also a capable baserunner.
2009 Season FIC Rank: 27th
Reina Value: +11%
Deserved: $14.38 million
Jason Bay: Bay is clearly the second best positional free agent, but he shares the same position as Holliday while lagging behind in just about every metric imaginable.
Bay had his best two seasons in 2005 and 2006 (.961 and .928 OPS) before bottoming out in 2007 with a mark of .746. When traded during the middle of the 2008 season and unenviably asked to replace Manny Ramirez in left field, Bay exceeded expectations by having an OPS of .921 this season with 36 homers.
Defensively, Bay is a horrible left fielder though playing half his games in front of the Green Monster undoubtedly helps him. He has had a -UZR in each of the past three seasons and only Ryan Braun was worst this season.
Re-signing with the Red Sox appears to be his best option both financially and in terms of staying on a winning club, with $48 million over four seasons.
2009 Season FIC Rank: 46th
Reina Value: +292%
Deserved: $12.75 million
John Lackey: Even though he can be a bit prickly at times, there haven't been many pitchers more consistent than John Lackey since 2005. Since having his best season in 2007 with a 3.01 ERA, he has missed parts of the past two seasons and has had ERAs of 3.75 and 3.83. His strikeout and walk rates have remained fairly constant, but he has been a bit more prone to the long ball.
I believe any team that acquires Lackey will be doing so more for his big game abilities than strictly as a workhorse to get a team into the playoffs. He has a 3.12 ERA in 78 career postseason innings and was once again excellent in his starts against Boston and New York this October.
Lackey and the Angels appear to be drifting apart, but I could conceivably seeing him going to the Dodgers who need a veteran starter with big game experience. He could also end up with division rival Texas.
2009 Season FIC Rank: 97th
Reina Value: -10%
Deserved: $9 million
Johnny Damon: As strange as it might sound, it is more difficult to picture Johnny Damon in anything other than pinstripes at this point. He is an ideal left-handed hitter in the second slot in their lineup between Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira, hitting for an OPS of .854 and tying his career high in homers with 24. He might be nearing the time where he sits against lefties, as he had splits of .889 and .776 this season, which was actually a marked improvement from 2008.
His arm is still incredibly weak and is clearly a liability, but he was better in left field than Alfonso Soriano, Bay and Braun. He was better in left during the 2007 and 2008 seasons so I would actually expect at least a slight rebound in that department next season.
He doesn't run as frequently as he did while batting leadoff, but he picks his spots wisely and still should be good for 10-20 steals.
A two-year, $20 million contract with the Yankees would be ideal for both sides.
2009 Season FIC Rank: 56th
Reina Value: -8%
Deserved: $12 million
Bobby Abreu: It is truly amazing what making less money will do for your reputation across baseball. Abreu went from overpriced wall-shy bum in New York to undervalued, clubhouse leader with the Angels. His production dipped from an OPS of .843 and 20 homers in 2008 to .825 and 15 homers in 2009, but his OBP rose to .390 and he was an excellent number two hitter in Mike Scioscia's lineup.
Defensively, Abreu is still far below average, though not nearly as bad as Brad Hawpe or Michael Cuddyer.
Abreu deserves a bump from the $5 million plus incentives he got from the Angels for this season and has already agreed to a two-year deal to remain in Anaheim.
2009 Season FIC Rank: 51st
Reina Value: +145%
Deserved: $12.25 million
Vladimir Guerrero: After the 2003 season, Vladimir Guerrero was the gem of the free agency class and immediately won an MVP award in his first season with the Angels, followed by a third-place finish, ninth place, another third and then a 14th placed finish in 2008. Teams like the Giants, Yankees and Mets shied away from Guerrero because of prevailing injury concerns, but he played in no fewer than 143 games per season until 2009 when he was limited to 100 games while burning his glove altogether.
While Guerrero hit for a brutally career low OPS of .794 during the regular season, he had a productive postseason by hitting for an OPS of .900 against Boston and .985 against the Yankees.
He is strictly an American League hitter and is clearly a create of habit and appears willing to accept less money to remain with the Angels.
2009 Season FIC Rank: 314th
Reina Value: -85%
Deserved: $2.25 million
Chone Figgins: The mark of an effective leadoff hitter is one that gets on base and then creates havoc on the base paths with his speed. Figgins had a career high .393 OBP and stole 42 bases during the 2009 season, scoring 114 runs in the process, which was good for third in baseball. Only the Yankees scored more runs and had a better OBP from the leadoff position than the Angels.
Defensively, Figgins has played just about every position, but he settled into third base over the past three seasons and he only trailed Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman in that department, in the same breath as Adrian Beltre amongst American Leaguers.
Figgins will be 32 when the 2010 season begins and should remain one of the finest leadoff hitters in the game for the next four seasons.
2009 Season FIC Rank: 96th
Reina Value: +56%
Deserved: $9 million
Jose Valverde: Valverde was the league-leader in saves during the 2007 (47) and 2008 (44) seasons and though he had an excellent 2.33 ERA, he was limited due to a calf injury. His strikeout rate decreased, his walk rate increased, but he did a better job in limiting his hits allowed in 2009.
2009 Season FIC Rank: 176th
Reina Value: -38%
Deserved: $5 million
Erik Bedard: The Mariners were not playoff contenders during Bedard's two seasons in Seattle and so their trade with Baltimore was a clear loss for them, as the southpaw made just 30 starts over that time period. He remained effective when on the mound, posting s 3.67 ERA in 2008 and 2.82 ERA in 2009 while nearly striking out 10 batters per nine innings this past season.
Bedard's 2009 was cut short in July due to shoulder problems and will be considered a high risk, high reward proposition, most appropriate for teams with good depth in their starting rotation such as the Yankees, Red Sox and Giants.
2009 Season FIC Rank: 286th
Reina Value: -67%
Deserved: $2.59 million
Bengie Molina: Molina was ranked 7th out of nine qualifying catchers in the OPS department (.727), hitting .265/.285/.442. The OBP is unacceptably low and was largely symbolic of the Giants' underlying problems offensively. His 20 homers were a career high, but fairly close to his previous totals of 16, 19 and 19 in the prior three seasons.
The Giants wouldn't be altogether averse to re-signing Molina for one season, but the catcher position will soon belong exclusively to Buster Posey, whom they hope will become their version of Joe Mauer.
2009 Season FIC Rank: 305th
Reina Value: -63%
Deserved: $2.4 million
Orlando Cabrera: Wisely, when he was traded from Oakland to the Twins, Cabrera had a stipulation that he was not to be offered arbitration, which will prevent a situation from arising where teams are reluctant to sign him due to compensatory draft picks. Cabrera was 15th amongst 19 qualified shortstops in OPS, but he hit much better once he got to the pennant race with the Twins, finishing with a split of .743/.683.
Cabrera has usually been a very good defensive shortstop, but he flatly had a horrible 2009 in that department, finishing with a UZR/150 of -13.7.
2009 Season FIC Rank: 250th
Reina Value: -18%
Deserved: $3.275 million
Miguel Tejada: Once an MVP and now a PED maligned, older than we thought shortstop, but Tejada is still one of the better offensive players at the position. He hit for an OPS of .795 with 14 homers in 2009, which was good for seventh amongst MLB shortstops. Tejada rebounded significantly from a disappointing 2008 in which his OBP dropped to .314 and he slugged just .415.
Statistically, Tejada has always been inconsistent on the defensive end from one season to the next, but I think the eye ball test firmly suggest a change of position is in order.
2009 Season FIC Rank: 157th
Reina Value: -59%
Deserved: $6 million
Orlando Hudson: Since Hudson is a Type A free agent, he will have a difficult time receiving an offer from any team other than the Dodgers. Hudson had a blistering April (.948) and May (.818), but lost his job to Ronnie Belliard during the playoffs. I think the Dodgers were a little hard on him, as a .357 OBP is pretty solid production from the second base position.
2009 Season FIC Rank: 243rd
Reina Value: +0%
Deserved: $3.36 million
Vicente Padilla: The Dodgers' most reliable postseason starter became Vicente Padilla, who was released from the Wildcard seeking Rangers, though it was a decision based largely on his head-hunting distractibility. He had a 3.20 ERA in 39.1 innings with the Dodgers and a 3.63 mark in an additional 17.1 postseason innings. Padilla struck out 8.7 batters per nine innings while with the Dodgers, which is an unsustainable rate given his more typical stats over the past decade.
2009 Season FIC Rank: 168th
Reina Value: -54%
Deserved: $5.5 million
Brad Penny: Brad Penny returned to the National League upon his release by Boston and thrived, posting a 2.59 ERA in 41.2 innings. He struck out even fewer batters with the Giants (4.32 per nine innings), but had a WHIP under 1.000. He appeared very comfortable being back in the NL West and will almost certainly attempt to remain there.
2009 Season FIC Rank: 152nd
Reina Value: +22%
Deserved: $6.08 million
Andy Pettitte: Pettitte almost certainly will pitch for the Yankees again in 2010 should he return. The Yankees low balled Pettitte last winter when he was coming off a season in which his ERA bloated to 4.54, expecting him to be a fifth starter behind Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain. When they struggled, it was Pettitte who made 32 regular season starts and four more in the postseason, including all three series-clinchers. He had a 3.52 ERA in 30.2 innings and continues to be one of the most reliable postseason pitchers we have seen, though a duplication of 2009 in the both the regular and postseason would be at least somewhat a surprise.
2009 Season FIC Rank: 71st
Reina Value: +105%
Deserved: $11.25 million
Rich Harden: Harden absolutely has electric stuff when he's healthy, but that is always an iffy scenario; even enjoying reasonably fortunate health the last two seasons, he was still limited to no more than 26 stars per season. His ERA rose to 4.09 in 2009 in 141 innings, as he gave up a whopping 7.8 hits per nine innings and 1.5 homers. His strikeout rate remains a startlingly dominant 10.9 per nine innings, but hitters are now getting better wood on his offerings.
After seeing him pitch for them the past season and a half, the Cubs have virtually no interest in re-signing him, but he could be valuable to a top tier team interested in essentially stashing him away until September and October, because he could become a dominant playoff starter despite having a 6.35 ERA in 11.1 career playoff innings.
2009 Season FIC Rank: 151st
Reina Value: -13%
Deserved: $6.125 million
Jarrod Washburn: After pitching three seasons firmly entrenched in the mid 4.00's, Washburn posted a 2.64 ERA over his first 133 innings of 2009, recapturing that excellence of 2005 with the Angels when he pitched his way into a lucrative contract from the Mariners. The Yankees were interested in making a trade for him, but he wound up with the Tigers and gave them 35 earned runs in 43 innings, helping them blow a sizable AL Central lead.
2009 Season FIC Rank: 132nd
Reina Value: -29%
Deserved: $7 million
Ben Sheets: Sheets mistakenly declined arbitration from the Brewers last winter and ultimately wound up unsigned due to injury. He is working towards a comeback, but is now on the wrong side of 30 and will need to have a Chris Carpenter like comeback. When on the mound, Sheets has been one of the absolute most consistent players of the past decade, with a career ERA of 3.72. He is certainly worth the risk for the wealthier teams.
2009 Season FIC Rank: NA
Reina Value: NA
Deserved: NA
Randy Wolf: You wouldn't know it by looking at him, but Randy Wolf was the highest ranked pitcher of this free agency class. After many seasons of appearing on the cusp of acehood with the Phillies, Wolf never quite put it together in any sustainable way. But in his second stop with the Dodgers this season, he had a 3.24 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 214.1 innings. He was banged up pretty well by the Cardinals and Phillies in the postseason, revealing that he truly is a third or fourth starter that was masquerading as a frontline guy for the Dodgers due to the breakdown of Chad Billingsley.
2009 Season FIC Rank: 35th
Reina Value: +170%
Deserved: $13.4 million
Rafael Soriano: Soriano became a full time closer for the first time in his career in 2009 and had highs in strikeout rate (12.1 per nine) and WHIP (1.057). He is certainly not automatic, but there were a lot of teams, including his former team Seattle, that blew more than 20 saves last season and he would be more dependable than incumbents.
2009 Season FIC Rank: 139th
Reina Value: +2%
Deserved: $6.5 million
