The Hands on Runs statistic determines how much weight an individual player carries in his line-up. Which players were most valuable to their team now that the 2008 season is over?
The Red Sox didn't have the best regular season record in 2008, but using our metrics for overall quality, they were the best team in baseball, followed by the Cubs. How did the other 28 teams do?
The story of Albert Belle can be summed up in one word: controversy. His talent on the field was matched by very few, and his propensity to deal with the media the way he did, made national headlines.
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By Christopher Reina
There will definitely be no Alex Rodriguez Game 4 of the World Series opt-out announcement, and it is unlikely that a near $100M deal will be hashed out at a fast food restaurant, but the free agent class for 2009 contains a host of current All-Stars, former All-Stars, salvage cases, and at least one future Hall of Famer.
* Individual FIC Rank, Season FIC and Reina Value appear in parenthesis next to each player's name.
The FIC is a statistical system that attempts to objectively rank all players and the Reina Value determines how that performance relates to their contract.
A player with a positive Reina Value outperformed his contract while a negative one means he likely was overvalued.
The Top-10
1. CC Sabathia (2nd, 337, +113%, $23.43 million)
For the third consecutive season a southpaw AL Cy Young award winner is hitting the open market with Barry Zito (free agent in after 2006) and Johan Santana (put on trade block after 2007) being the other two. Zito signed a seven-year, $126 million deal with the Giants and Santana signed a six-year, $137.5 million contract extension with the Mets.
Since 2006, Sabathia and Santana have been the best two pitchers in the game, but Santana has been slightly better with a 2.87 ERA compared to Sabathia's 3.03. Santana also has a better strikeout rate, quality start percentage and WHIP. They are both amongst the very best in all of these categories, but Santana edges Sabathia in all of them.
Sabathia also hasn't been able to be an effective postseason starter, giving up 22 earned runs over 25 innings in five separate starts. There is no denying that he can pitch in big games, however, as evidenced with how well he pitched down the stretch for the Brewers on short rest.
He has averaged almost 32 starts per season since 2001 with his low only being 28 back in 2006. He is extremely durable and has the kind of presence in the clubhouse that any pitching coach would want to build a rotation around.
Sabathia is unquestionably a nine-figure contract kind of player, but in terms of a return it is impossible to expect the 1.65 ERA he had in Milwaukee and also difficult to count on a level of performance that truly matches Johan, though he won't be far off.
2. Mark Teixeira (7th, 291, +36%, $16.98 million)
Free from the advantages of playing in Arlington, Teixeira still had the best season of his career, posting an OPS of .962 in 103 games with Atlanta and 54 with the Angels.
His homer production is unlikely to reach the levels of 2005 when he hit 43 (30 at home), but he should consistently be in the 30-35 range for the entire duration of the eight-year contract Scott Boras is looking for. Teixeira turned down the Rangers' $140 million extension offer, which would have paid him $17.5 million annually. At the time, I thought he was insane but due to his play that annual average is likely to tick up to $20 million annually over eight years, a $20 million difference and an additional $1M for Scott Boras Corp.
Teixeira is still trending upwards, will be just a few days shy of 29 on Opening Day, plays a great first base and will eventually go down as one of the best five or six switch hitters in history (only Mantle, Berkman, Chipper and Reggie Smith have a better career OPS+).
3. Manny Ramirez (13th, 274, -15%, $16 million)
Ramirez will be 37 in 2009 for all intents and purposes and there have only been 16 seasons on record in which a player has hit for an OPS over 1.000 at 37 or older. Four of those belong to Barry Bonds, four to Ted Williams, two to Babe Ruth, two to Hank Aaron with Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker holding the other four.
There have only been 39 seasons in which a player 37 or older has even hit for an OPS above .900.
I put Manny Ramirez in that second tier of players beyond Ruth, Williams and Bonds. His career OPS+ of 155 puts him 19th all-time and 9th amongst right handed hitters, so I believe he's capable of extending his current level of production another two years, especially if his OBP remains high with how he is pitched to so carefully, before there is a decline.
Burnett made 34 starts for the Jays, which was a career high for the oft-injured pitcher. He struggled at home (4.49 ERA) and in the first half (4.96) but had a 3.65 ERA on the road and 2.86 ERA in the second half. He will attempt to parlay that finish with a big extension, but it is difficult to find a team that will find it comfortable to pay Burnett $15M+ per season. He might have 'deserved' to make $15.5M, but the 18 wins and 231 strikeouts were more impressive than the 4.07 ERA and 1.342 WHIP.
5. Francisco Rodriguez (14th, 270, +60%, $15.98 million)
K-Rod really became Save-Rod in 2008 by setting the single season record for saves with 62, five more than Bobby Thigpen. The belief that Rodriguez is already trending downwards is accurate from just about every statistical measurement. His K rate, WHIP and ERA+ have all gotten worse from his excellent 2004 and 2006 seasons. His velocity is down and there are six other closers with a better ERA+ over the past two seasons than Rodriguez (Nathan, Saito, Soria, Papelbon, Rivera and Putz). In terms of dominance, he is in that second tier and doesn't merit the kind of reach it will likely to take to sign him.
6. Derek Lowe (50th, 223, +25%, $12.5 million)
Lowe four years older and a free agent again, but is ready for a much bigger payday than what he saw following the 2004 season. He was coming three excellent postseason starts, but a 5.42 ERA and 1.615 WHIP in 182.7 innings. There was really nothing to suggest he'd have four consecutive seasons of an ERA of 3.88 or better and be 13th in ERA+ amongst pitchers with at least 140 starts. He also increased his strikeout rate and though he still relies on the groundball, he recorded a higher percentage of flyball outs in 2008 than ever before. For this reason, taking him out of the NL West where he gets to pitch in a lot of big parks could prove scary.
7. Ben Sheets (38th, 238, +9%, $13.25 million)
Sheets has been one of the game's most consistent pitchers, when he's been healthy. He has averaged 23.5 starts per season over the past four years and couldn't pitch in the postseason due to a tear near his elbow. He believes that all he needs is rest, but a major surgery seems like an inevitability and though he could make a Chris Carpenter like return, Mark Prior's path is also a distinct possibility.
But in 2008, Sheets was very good and gave up just 68 earned runs in 198.3 innings. His WHIP and strikeout rate have both taken a hit over the past few seasons, as he is a long ways off from his 2004 and 2005 dominance. He is most ideally suited for a team that can afford just 20 starts a year from him to ensure he's healthy for the postseason.
8. Adam Dunn (129th, 173, -44%, $7.33 million)
Only Ralph Kiner, Albert Pujols and Eddie Mathews have hit more home runs in their first eight seasons than Dunn and his 278 long balls, but can there be any less fanfare as that prolific as a slugger hits the open market? He is viewed as a one-dimensional player that will either strikeout, walk or hit a ball 400 feet that doesn't really like baseball and he largely deserves that reputation. Dunn is also a well below average defensive player and is best suited to become a DH. Even though J.P. Riccardi has very publicly criticized Dunn, he would give Toronto a lot of what they need (left handed power) and at a price tag where the upside is very good.
9. Brian Fuentes (144th, 162, +29%, $6.5 million)
Fuentes will come at the fraction of Rodriguez's cost and will be a better dollar for dollar for value. Fuentes had a surge in his strikeouts in 2008 and was second amongst closers with 11.78 per nine innings. He also had a 3.51/1.84 home/away split and should se his overall numbers improve getting out of Colorado.
10. Rafael Furcal (396th, 76, -92%, $1.2 million)
After a huge drop in production in 2007 in which his OPS dropped to .688, Furcal began the 2008 season as one of the NL's best hitters. When he went down with his back injury after just 32 games, Furcal was hitting .366/.448/.597. He came back early and rejoined the Dodgers for the postseason in which he had mixed success. A short-term contract and possibly a move to second base make him a player that would appeal to the Tigers and Mets in particular.
Other Notable Free Agents
- Jason Giambi (124th, 176, -68%)
Giambi has had one roller-coaster time over his seven seasons in New York. He initially had very good success (1.033 and .939 OPS in his first two season), but a mysterious benign tumor effectively ended his 2004 season. But he rebounded in 2005 and won the AL Comeback Player of the Year award with an OPS of .975. The 2006 season was another healthy and successful one, but 2007 and 2008 were relative disappointments though he did hit 32 homers and had an .875 OPS. He will be 38 next season and the clock is very quickly ticking, but he will likely find himself in a situation where he becomes a team's regular designated hitter, where he can be better preserved throughout the season. His patience at the plate and pop from the left side is still just about as good as any and he had a better OPS in 2008 than Justin Morneau, Carlos Pena, Carlos Delgado and Jim Thome.
- Edgar Renteria (386th, 78, -88%, $1.3 million)
The Tigers gave up a very good young pitcher in Jair Jurrjens for a one season rental of Renteria, as they cut their losses following his worst season since 2001. His 2007 with Atlanta in which he hit for an OPS of .860 looks like more of a fluke than his .699 with Detroit, as he had an OPS of .748 during the timeframe. The defense of the former Gold Glover has also declined over the past couple seasons.
- Joe Crede (418th, 72, -80%, $1.03 million)
Crede can definitely not be counted on to be a 140 game per season player as his back issues will continue to flare up indefinitely. He hit 17 homers in 335 at bats and finished the season with a .774 OPS. Because he's such a low on base hitter, he is easily amongst the least productive third basemen. He also made an unseemly 20 errors in just 97 games.
- Milton Bradley (116th, 181, +52%, $8 million)
Bradley is like a box of chocolates in terms of both attitude and production, but 2008 was definitely a breakthrough season for him on both fronts. A couple of different injuries shortened what was an excellent season in which he hit .321/.436/.563. His .947 OPS in 2007 and .999 this season represents the most consistent two-year stretch of his career. He definitely benefited from playing in Arlington, but he still had a respectable .872 OPS on the road. Bradley has considerably more pop from the right side and will be a valuable DH somewhere in the AL where keeping him off the defensive side of the field should let him stay healthy and in the lineup.
- Bobby Abreu (67th, 206, -31%, $11 million)
Abreu had a run of five consecutive seasons between 1998 and 2002 in which he had an OPS over .900, but he has had marks of .814 and .842 in his two full seasons with the Yankees. He is still a patient hitter, but there is perhaps a smaller need for patience when you hit in front of Alex Rodriguez and there is also a higher expectation of performance. Both of these seasons have been marred by rough starts (.723/.918 split in 2007 and .781/.930 in 2008) and if he returns to the Yankees it must be at a heavily reduced rate and he should be shifted down in the lineup.
- Ryan Dempster (24th, 250, +105%, $15 million)
Dempster deserves to be in the other category, but with him widely expected to re-sign with the Cubs, he ends up down here. He had a 2.96 ERA in his first season as a starter since 2003. His strikeout rate was excellent and he was the Cubs' most consistent pitcher, leading the team in quality start percentage. It's pretty rare to have such a short history on a 31-year-old pitcher, but he is a much different starter than he was back in Florida and Cincinnati and it is foolish to assume he will be so dominant again in 2009 and beyond. Dempster was better in the second half and with he and the Cubs so eager to reup (it is doubtful he will ever hit the open market), the risk will likely be mitigated.
- Oliver Perez (77th, 198, +54%, $10 million)
Perez had a 4.22 ERA, which was up from his 3.56 in 2007. Perez should fetch about $10M per year in free agency making his return to the Mets unlikely. His strikeout rate dropped slightly and his K/BB rate dropped more dramatically from 2.20 to 1.71, leading the NL in walks. He had a 5.79 ERA in September and though he only got one decision, the Mets were 3-3 in his starts including losses in three of his last four.
- Mike Mussina (39th, 235, +19%, $13.2 million)
Mussina finally exited the best pitcher to never win 20 games clubs with a 20-9 record in his 18th season. It was the 17th consecutive season in which he has had double-digit wins. Mussina is 21st in ERA+ amongst starters with at least 3,000 career innings. There were many who believed he was done after his 2007 in which he had a 5.15 ERA, but his strong finish that September gave the Yankees a glimpse into the kind of 2008 he would have where his K's were up and WHIP was down.
-Orlando Hudson (368th, 83, -76%, $1.5 million)
Hudson's season came to an end early due to a dislocated wrist, but he was in the midst of his third consecutive low .800 OPS season while playing an excellent defensive second base. Hudson has always been a much better at Chase Field (career .902 OPS), so it will be interesting to see how he fares playing in another park.
Cabrera remains a more defensive oriented shortstop as his OPS hit .705 in 2008, below his career average of .721. He initially struggled with the White Sox, but finished with a strong September, but he'll continue to be near the bottom third at the position.
- Pedro Martinez (326th, 93, -83%, $2 million)
Unlike former teammate Lowe, Martinez reenters free agency four years after his departure from Boston in a position where he is hanging by a thread. He has the best ERA+ for a starter in history and he all but certain of retiring with that mark even if he does pitch another few years, but will he have any kind of late stretch like a Greg Maddux? He had a 5.61 ERA in 109 innings (20 starts) and had more four innings or less outings than seven inning outings.
Back in 2004 the Giants considered signing Martinez with the intention of becoming a closer, but he yielded a 1.056 OPS in his first 25 pitches in 2008, which makes the bullpen a scary proposition. He can still throw the kitchen sink at batters, but he still hasn't quite learned to pitch successfully
- Kerry Wood (107th, 186, +96%, $8.25 million)
Wood very nearly gave the Cubs a full season (save one trip to the DL) as their closer, saving 34 games and blowing six. He had a 3.26 ERA and 1.085 WHIP while striking out 30% of the batters he faced. He was surely a reliable closer, but he was closer to Salomon Torres or Kevin Gregg in his overall effectiveness than he was Brad Lidge, Jonathan Papelbon or even Bobby Jenks.
- Felipe Lopez (482nd, 61, -85%, $750k)
It wasn't too long ago that Lopez was a .291/.352/.486 with 23 home runs shortstop with Cincinnati back in 2005. He disappeared while in Washington, but he still had decent road numbers. Once he joined the Cardinals, he had one of the best stretches of his career, hitting .385/.426/.538 with four homers in 156 at bats. He won't be one of the earliest players signed, but a switch hitter with pop at a middle infield position remains a scarcity worth gambling on.
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM
