The Hands on Runs statistic determines how much weight an individual player carries in his line-up. Which players were most valuable to their team now that the 2008 season is over?
The Red Sox didn't have the best regular season record in 2008, but using our metrics for overall quality, they were the best team in baseball, followed by the Cubs. How did the other 28 teams do?
The story of Albert Belle can be summed up in one word: controversy. His talent on the field was matched by very few, and his propensity to deal with the media the way he did, made national headlines.
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By Christopher Reina
As I’ve written before, I like to keep track of a simple to understand statistic that is supremely indicative of how much weight a player carries within the framework of his offense.
There are two hands involved with every run scored; one from the runner scoring and one from the batter who drives in the run. When a player hits a home run, he has two hands on the run.
In order to calculate the percentage of runs a player has a hand in, I add the run total with the RBI total, then divide by the amount of runs their team has scored and finally divide by two in order to get a percentage. Because there are many times throughout a season when a player scores a run without another player receiving credit for an RBI (ex: errors), the percentage is a little bit short, but it is certainly close.
This is a factor that should be heavily considered when the MVP voting is conducted, but it certainly is not an end all. Defensive impact amongst a host of other factors are not included here, but this stat is a very good gauge in determining who the real candidates are and also breaking ties since the true value of a player to his team is apparent.
Bill James' brilliant 'runs created' statistic is probably more accurate and less prone to anomalies, but the immediacy of the HOR percentage formula works better for me.
Here are the leaders this season through Wednesday night’s games:
10. Albert Pujols, 13.66
9. Carlos Pena, 13.71
8. Ryan Zimmerman, 13.92
7. Torii Hunter, 13.92
6. Nick Markakis, 13.95
5. Carlos Lee, 14.28%
4. Magglio Ordonez, 14.43%
3. Prince Fielder, 14.59%
2. Matt Holliday, 14.87%
1. Alex Rodriguez, 15.51%
National League MVP
11. Jimmy Rollins, 12.90
The fact that Rollins is this far down the list is more because of the high-potency of the Phillies’ offense than it is because of his statistical output. Rollins leads the NL in runs (135), second in hits (207), second in total bases (273) and first in triples (19). Rollins also continued his power surge, hitting 30 homeruns and posting a career-high .877 OPS.
10. Miguel Cabrera, 13.07
While Hanley Ramirez had a season everyone is raving about, this stat, which rewards sluggers, makes Cabrera look like the most valuable member of the Marlins. Cabrera once again batted above .320 and hit over 30 homeruns, with 115 RBIs.
9. Lance Berkman, 13.15
Berkman was third in MVP voting last season and though he was very productive this year, he fell off in nearly every statistical category.
8. Eric Byrnes, 13.22
It is because of players like Byrnes why this stat is important. He isn’t near the top of any statistical category but his play on a team heading to the playoffs despite being amongst the bottom of the MLB in the runs deserves merit.
7. Adam Dunn, 13.41
Dunn had a typical Dunn season, with high totals in homers, walks and strikeouts.
6. David Wright, 13.55
Wright continued his excellent young career this season, with career highs in batting (.321), homers (30) and stolen bases (34). He has also been the Mets’ most reliable and clutch hitter.
5. Albert Pujols, 13.66
As he has every season of his now 7-year career, Pujols hit at least 30 homers, drove in at least 100 RBIs, batted over .300 and had an OPS of at least .950. Despite this continued dominance, once again Pujols won’t win the MVP.
4. Ryan Zimmerman, 13.92
Plain and simple, Zimmerman had a decent season on a very bad team.
3. Carlos Lee, 14.28%
Despite a disappointing season for the Astros, Lee didn’t make the club regret making him their key free agent acquisition.
2. Prince Fielder, 14.59%
Fielder has had a spectacular second full season, hitting 50 homeruns and improving his batting average and his OBP significantly. With Ryan Braun and company, the Brewers have made a great run towards the playoffs but will likely fall short to the Cubs.
1. Matt Holliday, 14.87%
Holliday leads this list and is my choice for NL MVP. The Rockies are finishing the season with great gusto and he either leads or is amongst the league leaders in every major statistical category.
American League
10. Grady Sizemore, 12.39
Sizemore has been the catalyst for Eric Wedge’s Indians’ club that won the AL Central. While Cleveland was better this season, Sizemore actually fared better in 2006, with an OPS of .908 compared to .855 this season. His hits, doubles, triples and homeruns all dipped and he once again struck out as much as anyone. But Sizemore is as superb of a young talent as there is and plays an excellent centerfield. He will continue to play himself into this discussion for many years to come.
9. Vladimir Guerrero, 12.94
For the 11th consecutive season, Guerrero will bat above .300 (Helton is on his 10th season). The Angels are back in the playoffs and as always, Guerrero is the principle reason for any offensive success the small-ball AL team has. While his average and homerun totals are down from when he won the MVP in 2004, he has a chance to match or surpass his RBI total.
8. David Ortiz, 13.18
Ortiz saw a huge slide in his homerun totals (54 to 33), but he compensated for it somewhat with a career-high .440 OBP, which will allow him to finish the season with essentially the same run total. Ortiz still managed to post an exceptional season despite long absences from Manny Ramirez and a hugely disappointing season from J.D. Drew. His help came from unexpected places; a resurgent season by Mike Lowell and a likely ROY campaign from Dustin Pedroia.
7. Alex Rios, 13.23
Rios followed up an All-Star season in 2006 by being even better this year. He became a more patient hitter and is posting career-highs in doubles, homeruns, RBIs, walks and stolen bases. Rios will also finish just shy of the 200 hit plateau.
6. Justin Morneau, 13.57
The reigning MVP will not repeat, but Morneau had another highly productive season for the Twinkies.
5. Carlos Pena, 13.71
After nearly playing his way out of baseball, Pena is having one of the best season’s in the American League. He is second in slugging (.610), fourth in OPS (1.013) and second in homeruns (43).
4. Torii Hunter, 13.92
As he enters free agency, Hunter struck a career season at precisely the right time. He is posting career highs in batting, RBIs, doubles, hits and total bases, despite being in the middle of an average AL offense.
3. Nick Markakis, 13.95
Markakis improved upon an impressive debut in 2006 this season. He is hitting .294, with 22 homeruns and 110 RBIs for a Baltimore team that struggled to score runs this season.
2. Magglio Ordonez, 14.43%
Ordonez would be an easy MVP choice in a normal season, but instead he’ll have to take solace in his batting title and his first season with an OPS over 1.000.
1. Alex Rodriguez, 15.51%
There have been only 19 other seasons in which a player has posted at least 150 RBIs and 140 runs, with Sammy Sosa’s 2001 season being the only other instance after 1949. Babe Ruth did it five times, while Lou Gehrig did it three times.
Rodriguez nearly single-handedly kept the Yankees afloat before their second half surge. Back in early July, Rodriguez had a hand on 18.43% of their runs.
Rodriguez leads the AL in six major categories and perhaps more importantly, Rodriguez has hit 12 of his homeruns with two outs and runners in scoring position, putting to rest some of the claims that he isn’t a clutch performer.
