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Grading The Deal: Phillies Trade For Oswalt
Authored by Andrew Perna - 2nd August, 2010 - 3:38 pm
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The Philadelphia Phillies may have left their cupboard bare, but for the third time in a year they have acquired a top-shelf starting pitcher via trade. Prior to Saturday?s non-waiver trade deadline, the Phillies landed Roy Oswalt from the Astros in exchange for left-hander J.A. Happ, outfield prospect Anthony Goose and infielder prospect Jonathan Villar.

Philadelphia is already strapped for cash and Oswalt is due $23 million over the remainder of his contract, but that commitment is minimized by the $11 million Houston agreed to include in the trade.

The Phillies are trying to win their fourth straight National League East division title and after appearing to be out of the race two weeks ago, they are back within striking distance of the Braves. They are banking on their starting rotation, which now features Roy Halladay, Oswalt, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick.

Halladay, Oswalt and Blanton were all acquired in trades over the last two years.

Unlike the acquisition of Cliff Lee from Cleveland last summer, the Phillies won?t simply be renting Oswalt, which adds a different wrinkle to the assessment of the trade.

General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. was able to turn Lee into Halladay in a three-way trade with the Mariners and Blue Jays this past winter, but it?s highly unlikely he would have been able to swing a similar deal had he dealt for another free-agent-to-be this summer.

Both Oswalt and Happ have already made their respective debuts, but when comparing their 2010 numbers with their former teams it?s clear that while Happ may have a bright future, Oswalt is the type of seasoned veteran that could help the Phillies immeasurably in October.

Oswalt had a 3.42 ERA in 129 innings with Houston and a WHIP of 1.109 (the second-lowest of his career). His strikeout to walk ratio was a respectable 3.53. His WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) was 2.9 (Happ?s was just 0.5).

In Houston, Oswalt never got the run support he deserved. Even in The Year of the Pitcher, Oswalt deserved to have at least a marginally winning record with a 3.42 ERA. The following pitchers have comparable ERAs but league-leading records:

Carl Pavano, Minnesota: 13-6, 3.21, Phil Hughes, New York: 12-4, 4.07, Ricky Nolasco, Florida: 12-7, 4.28, Justin Verlander, Detroit: 12-6, 3.47 and Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati: 11-6, 4.01.

The Astros didn?t score more than five runs in any of Oswalt?s 20 starts. The Phillies have struggled offensively, but they?ve scored more than 100 more runs than the Astros this season.

Philadelphia has some ground to make up if they are going to reach the postseason, but if they continue playing well while their many injured stars heal they?re a virtual lock for the postseason. With Chase Utley out for a while and Ryan Howard now hobbled with an ankle injury, second baseman Wilson Valdez will be throwing to Ross Gload at first base.

Those that greatly value young players with promise, and rightfully so, will contend that the Phillies made a mistake by trading Happ to the Astros. While they may regret doing so in two or three years, Amaro Jr. made the right move for a number of reasons.

The team has increased their chances for postseason success in the next few years while players like Howard, Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Halladay are still in their primes. Happ may be the better (and perhaps cheaper) pitcher down the road, but Oswalt is seasoned and has considerable playoff experience.

Charlie Manuel?s team may also be turning a corner. They have been known for a their bruising offense in recent years, but with their offensive struggles, the addition of Halladay and now Oswalt and the possible departure of outfielder Jayson Werth, the Phillies may at the very least become known as a balanced team that can win games by scores of 10-6 and 3-1.

Grade for Phillies: A-

Houston needed to make some changes and they certainly have begun a new era by dealing Oswalt and Lance Berkman, who went to the Yankees. While both deals were certainly financially and emotionally driven, the Oswalt deal was able to also bring in some young prospects.

Villar, 19, is still raw, but his tools have been praised at the lower minor league levels. He?s also a switch-hitter with above-average speed, but has never hit above even .300 for an extended prior of time.

The Astros didn?t hold onto Goose, who they flipped to the Blue Jays for first baseman Brett Wallace. Scouts consider his bat to be ready for the major leagues and project him as a starter with 20-home run potential. That?s serviceable for an NL club. He was rated as the 27th best prospect by Baseball America before the 2010 season.

Grade for Astros: B

After Houston dealt Berkman, Wallace was called up and recorded his first major league hit over the weekend.

Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. You can also follow Andrew on Twitter: APerna7.
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