The Royals have been major players in the free agent market, making a big run at Andruw Jones while signing Jose Guillen, but they did lose David Riske to the Brewers.
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Anything you can do,
I can do better.
I can do anything,
Better than you.
Heading into Thursday night’s action just four games separated the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. With the season past its midpoint, the Cubs are trying to win their first World Series in 100 years, while the Brewers are simply trying to make the postseason for the first time since the 1980s.
Chicago and Milwaukee have little in common historically. The Brewers have one pennant and two playoff appearances in their existence (1970), while the Cubs have enjoyed two World Series titles, ten pennants and fifteen postseason appearances since they began play in 1903.
In short, hyping a rivalry between these two teams isn’t likely to draw record ratings on television. In fact, if you’re looking for a marketable rivalry in the NL Central, you’re much better off pitting the Cubs against the St. Louis Cardinals.
However, in less than forty-eight hours the face of the division has changed drastically as both Milwaukee and Chicago have pulled off blockbuster trades to signify how serious they are about winning the pennant this fall.
On Monday the Brewers acquired Cleveland ace, and 2007 AL Cy Young winner, C.C. Sabathia in exchange for outfielder Matt LaPorta, pitcher Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson and a player to be named later.
Not to be outdone, the Cubs answered on Tuesday by adding Oakland pitchers Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for hurler Sean Gallagher, outfielder Matt Murton, infielder Eric Patterson and catcher Josh Donaldson.
No, you can't.
Yes, I can. No, you can't.
Yes, I can. No, you can't.
Yes, I can.
Yes, I can!
Now, with the dust barely settled on a pair of significant deals, which of these teams is now the favorite to finish on top of the NL Central less than eighty games from now?
On Monday afternoon it appeared as though the Brewers would soon gain ground on the Cubs, having added Sabathia in an attempt to win now.
Milwaukee gave up one of their top prospects, LaPorta, and a pair of valuable minor league arms for a pitcher they’ll only have for a little more than two months. Sabathia, who will become a free agent this winter, is likely to land a big money deal somewhere other than Wisconsin once the snow begins to fall.
It was a deal that the Indians had to make quickly, as they continued to fall into the depths of the AL Central. Once the sting wears off from dealing a Cy Young winner, they’ll be in much better shape in 2009 than they would have been if they had held onto Sabathia past this month’s non-waiver trade deadline.
Grade for Cleveland: B+
They got more than they would have with just a compensation pick.
C.C. was 6-8 with a respectable 3.73 ERA and 127 strikeouts in 125.1 innings for the Indians, a record that should improve with better run support and an ERA that could shrink slightly in the NL. He won in his Brewer debut on Tuesday night, going six innings against the Rockies. He struck out and walked five batters, while allowing three runs on five hits.
If the trade was essentially a no-brainer for Cleveland, why was Milwaukee so quick to pull the trigger?
Well, it’s unfortunately rather simple. As a small-market team, the Brewers know that their window of opportunity to win is a lot smaller than that of big-market clubs like New York and Boston. They’ll live with renting out Sabathia if he can help them make their first postseason appearance since he was in diapers.
Milwaukee has excepted the fact that they’ll lose Ben Sheets to free agency this winter as well, making the decision to put all their eggs in the 2008 basket even easier. The deal has certainly made the second half of this season an exciting time for Brewers fans, but the 2009 campaign could end up being a season-long hangover if this team isn’t able to do damage past summer.
What compounds the risk that the Brewers have taken is the fact that through Wednesday night’s action, Milwaukee led St. Louis by a half-game for the Wild Card, with Florida and New York breathing heavily behind them.
Grade for Milwaukee: B-
This grade changes to an ‘A’ if they make the playoffs, but drops to a ‘low-C’ should they watch the action from home.
If the Brewers fail to make the playoffs, the Sabathia deal will become one of those trades that gets filed under ‘it would have been great if it had worked’.
Anything you can be,
I can be greater.
Sooner or later,
I'm greater than you.
It may not seem fair in the grand scheme of things, but the Cubs, as a large-market club, were in much better position to pull off the trade they did with the Athletics on Tuesday.
Harden could provide dividends in Chicago through the 2009 season, after which he will be a free agent, while adding Gaudin will fortify their rotation while giving manager Lou Pinella a bit of injury insurance in the process.
The addition of Harden could push the Cubs further past both the Cardinals and Brewers, assuming the right-hander is able to stay healthy. He’s 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA in thirteen starts for the A’s this season, having missed time early on with a shoulder strain.
He also has 92 strikeouts in just 77 innings, the highest rate in the Major Leagues.
Assuming at least three of their four remaining Major League outfielders – Jim Edmonds, Kosuke Fukudome, Reed Johnson and Alfonso Soriano – are able to remain healthy, Chicago won’t miss Matt Murton all that much.
Gallagher has potential, but Gaudin is an immediate upgrade on his own. Chad was 5-3 with a 3.59 ERA in six starts for Oakland this season. A majority of his recent appearances have come out of the bullpen, but his 3-2 record (3.75 ERA) as a starter proves that he can take the mound in the first inning if Chicago asks him to at some point.
Grade for Chicago: B+
Harden will either be lights out, or take up space on the disabled list. If he’s lights out, the Cubs will cruise to the division title. Either way, Gaudin will improve their staff as a reliever or starter.
It’s a little surprising to see Billy Beane trade away both Harden and Gaudin, despite his reputation for selling off assets like there’s no tomorrow, because Oakland entered the week within arms reach of the Angels. Surprisingly, the A’s have actually gained ground on Los Angeles post-trade – trailing by five games after both teams came out victorious on Thursday.
An inter-divisional series between the Angels and A’s this weekend will either officially put Oakland out of contention at the season’s midpoint, or make some fans would why Beane dealt two strong arms with a playoff berth still a possibility.
More than likely, it’ll be the former.
Grade for Oakland: C+
Beane got the A’s more young pieces, but it may have cost them a shot at playing in October.
Anything you can buy,
I can buy cheaper.
I can buy anything,
Cheaper than you.
The Cubs paid less for Harden and Gaudin, both in terms of prospects and in relative value considering their back account, than the Brewers did for Sabathia, but only time will tell which trade ends up altering the NL Central more drastically.
Milwaukee got themselves a workhorse in Sabathia for the next two months, while Chicago is hoping Harden (comparable to Cub legend Mark Prior) is able to stay healthy long enough to pitch through mid-October.
Either way, these two teams appear destined for a late-summer battle for supremacy in the NL Central.
No, you're not. Yes, I am.
No, you're not. Yes, I am.
No, you're NOT!. Yes, I am.
Yes, I am!
However, one of these teams will fail to make the playoffs if they aren’t able to shoot down the Cardinals before the calendar turns to September.
I can shoot a partridge
With a single cartridge.
I can get a sparrow
With a bow and arrow.
Yeah, that should work.
Andrew Perna is a Senior Writer for RealGM.com and will be covering the 2008 MLB All-Star Game at Yankee Stadium this month. If there is any specific coverage you’d enjoy from the Bronx, let me know via e-mail. (Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com).
