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The Hanging Curve: Burnett, Seattle OBP, Baltimore Pitching & More
Authored by Andrew Perna - 16th May, 2012 - 5:13 pm
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A lot has happened in Major League Baseball since the last Hanging Curve, including an injury to a future Hall of Famer (Mariano Rivera), the benching of another (Albert Pujols) and a career-week for a slugger (Josh Hamilton) on a path that could lead to Cooperstown. It is time to take a look at some other, under-the-radar storylines.

Burnett Better Than Numbers Indicate

The Yankees traded A.J. Burnett to the Pirates back in February, giving the veteran right-hander a chance to resurrect his career in the National League. It seemed plausible that Burnett might return to form after struggling with New York. In Pittsburgh, he does not have to face designated hitters and the city also represents an escape from the American League East. Perhaps most importantly, Burnett was able to get out from underneath the microscope placed over him.

It may have been a bad omen then, when he suffered a facial fracture during spring training while attempting a bunt.

Burnett returned to the mound earlier than initially expected, making his Pirates debut in grand fashion against the Cardinals on April 21. He tossed seven scoreless innings, striking out seven and walking just two in a 2-0 win.

Burnett has not performed that well again in four other starts, but his numbers actually look much worse than he has pitched. The reason for his poor statistics? His infamous May 2 start against those same Cardinals when he allowed 12 earned runs in less than three innings.

If you remove that horrid start, Burnett has only surrendered six runs in 29 innings. In those four starts, he has registered exactly a strikeout per inning and walked just six batters. His season ERA is 5.12, but without the May 2 debacle it drops to just 1.86.

Mariners Still Cannot Get On Base

Seattle acquired Jesus Montero this winter in order to bolster their abysmal offense. Last season, they had the lowest OBP (.292) and OPS (.640) in baseball, leading to the fewest runs scored (556).

Little has changed through the first seven weeks of the season.

Entering action on Wednesday, the Mariners had the second-lowest OBP (.287), a mark five points lower than it was a season ago. If you are looking for a bright spot, they are on pace to score 580 runs. Those additional 24 runs might get them a few more wins, whether or not they actually want them in the grand scheme of things.

Ichiro Suzuki (.337) is their only regular player with an OBP higher than .315 and they lack any sort of power without a hitter slugging higher than .458 (Kyle Seager).

Montero is only 22, but has disappointed. After putting up a line of .328/.406/.996 in 61 at-bats with the Yankees late in 2011, the Venezuelan has hit .262/.286/.707 through 126 at-bats this season.

He is hitting home runs with less frequency, striking out more than five times as often as he walks and balls coming off his bat are staying on the ground. Montero has also rarely gone to the opposite field.

Montero is still young and maturing as a hitter, but there could be another reason for his struggles in Seattle: He is no longer an afterthought in a stacked Yankees lineup.

Baltimore Pitching

The Orioles entered Wednesday tied with the Rays for first place in the AL East. I could stop there and that sentence alone would be enough to provoke thought in some and panic in others. How has Baltimore remained at the top of one of the toughest divisions in professional sports?

They have hit well with the fifth-highest OPS (.763) in the Majors, but as of late their pitching has carried them.

Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen have anchored a rotation that was full of question marks entering the season. The pair is a combined 8-1 with a 2.56 ERA in 14 starts. Hammel and Wei-Yin have a 2.6 strikeout-to-walk ratio and both average more than 100 pitches per start.

Jake Arrieta, Tommy Hunter and Brian Matusz have struggled with a combined ERA of 5.27. The offense, however, has helped pick up the young pitchers. The Orioles have gone 11-11 in their starts even though the trio has a mark of just 6-10. If Buck Showalter and Co. are going to remain atop the division, Arrieta, Hunter and Matusz are going to have to give them more length to save the bullpen, which has been spectacular.

Where Would Philly Be Without Papelbon?

Many questioned the sanity of the Phillies this offseason when they agreed to a four-year, $50 million contract with Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon had eight blown saves in 2010 and is on the wrong side of thirty after seven seasons with the Red Sox.

Now, we are all left to wonder how far back the last place Phillies would be without their closer.

Papelbon is enjoying his best season in three years. He has allowed four runs in 15 innings and converted all 10 of his save opportunities. His WHIP (0.87) is lower than it has been since 2007 and his 2.40 ERA is his best since 2009. He has been successful by getting ahead of hitters with first-pitch fastballs.

Philadelphia has 18 wins and he has saved 56% of them. His only blemish came on May 7 against the Mets when he took the loss after allowing three earned runs -- his ERA increased from 0.82 to 3.00 after the appearance.

Brewing Coffee: Jurickson Profar, Double-A Frisco

Profar is not likely to become the next teenage phenomenon in the Majors, but the Rangers shortstop prospect has certainly garnered headlines for his play in the Texas League. I profiled him briefly in a prospect update for RealGM two weeks ago and Profar was hitting .253/.315/.485 on the season.

Thanks to a 25-game hitting streak (through May 15), the switch-hitter is now hitting .291/.341/.841 through 148 at-bats. In his last 10 games, Profar is hitting .356 with six extra base hits and eight RBI. He has an eye-popping 12 hits in his last six games, including a three-double performance against Corpus Christi on Saturday.
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