May 14, 2013 6:46 PM EST
By Andrew Perna
(@Andrew_Perna)
The Opsera is a statistic RealGM Executive Editor Chris Reina created in order to objectively rank teams by how well they hit (OPS) and pitch (ERA).
In order to determine the Opsera rating for each, we take their OPS, multiply that number by 10 to move the decimal point over one place to the right and then subtract their ERA from that number.
All statistics are through Monday, May 13 games.
Rankings from last week are in parenthesizes.
1. (1) Detroit Tigers – 4.42
Miguel Cabrera is flirting with another Triple Crown and the Tigers are benefiting.
2. (4) Texas Rangers – 4.30
The Rangers rank fourth in both team OPS and ERA.
3. (7) St. Louis Cardinals – 4.14
St. Louis had rotation "issues" entering the season, but they have the lowest ERA in the game.
4. (6) Cleveland Indians – 3.98
They lead baseball with 50 home runs and have gotten great production from Justin Masterson (6-0, 3.14 ERA).
5. (3) Boston Red Sox – 3.91
John Farrell's club has cooled down, but they still rank in our top five and are just two games back of the Yankees in the AL East.
6. (2) Colorado Rockies – 3.87
T7. (5) Atlanta Braves – 3.86
-- (9) New York Yankees – 3.86
T9. (8) Kansas City Royals – 3.64
-- (12) Cincinnati Reds – 3.64
11. (10) Arizona Diamondbacks – 3.63
12. (T14) San Francisco Giants – 3.61
13. (13) Chicago Cubs – 3.60
14. (11) Baltimore Orioles – 3.58
15. (17) Pittsburgh Pirates – 3.50
16. (16) Washington Nationals – 3.34
17. (20) Tampa Bay Rays – 3.31
18. (24) Los Angeles Dodgers – 3.01
19. (18) Chicago White Sox – 2.99
20.(T14) Oakland Athletics – 2.98
21. (21) Minnesota Twins – 2.94
22. (19) Milwaukee Brewers – 2.93
23. (22) Seattle Mariners – 2.89
24. (27) Philadelphia Phillies – 2.67
25. (25) San Diego Padres – 2.60
26. (23) New York Mets – 2.40
27. (26) Los Angeles Angels – 2.39
28. (28) Toronto Blue Jays – 2.34
29. (29) Miami Marlins – 2.03
30. (30) Houston Astros – 1.17
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Apr 30, 2013 9:38 AM EST
By Andrew Perna
(@Andrew_Perna)
The Opsera is a statistic RealGM Executive Editor Chris Reina created in order to objectively rank teams by how well they hit (OPS) and pitch (ERA).
In order to determine the Opsera rating for each, we take their OPS, multiply that number by 10 to move the decimal point over one place to the right and then subtract their ERA from that number.
All statistics are through Monday, April 29 games.
Rankings from last week are in parenthesizes.
1. (T3) Colorado Rockies – 4.55
The Rockies are being led by Troy Tulowitzki (22 RBI), Dexter Fowler (8 HR) and Wilin Rosario (.350 AVG).
2. (T3) Boston Red Sox – 4.50
Beer and chicken and Bobby Valentine gone, the Red Sox have baseball's best record.
3. (2) Texas Rangers – 4.42
Yu Darvish looks like a Cy Young candidate with a 4-1 mark, 1.65 ERA and 49 Ks in less than 33 innings.
4. (1) Atlanta Braves – 4.16
As you might expect, the Braves have the second-lowest ERA (3.24) in all of baseball. The offense is powerful once again as well.
5. (14) Detroit Tigers – 3.81
The Tigers jumped up nine spots from last week thanks in part to four straight wins and a +22 run differential.
6. (5) Cincinnati Reds – 3.79
The Reds are in a battle with the Pirates, Cardinals and Brewers for honors in the NL Central.
7. (T7) Arizona Diamondbacks – 3.73
Before long, the Diamondbacks are expected to have to fend off the Giants and Dodgers.
8. (T7) Kansas City Royals – 3.66
The offense is below average, but James Shields has helped make the pitching staff one of the best in the Major Leagues.
9. (9) Baltimore Orioles – 3.61
Chris Davis is an early AL MVP candidate. He's hitting .352/.444/.750 with nine home runs and 28 RBIs.
T10. (6) New York Yankees – 3.55
Injuries may finally be catching up to the Yankees, who had been toe-to-toe with the Red Sox for first in the division.
-- (12) St. Louis Cardinals - 3.55
12. (18) Chicago Cubs – 3.46
13. (19) Washington Nationals – 3.36
14. (10) Oakland Athletics – 3.30
T15. (13) Pittsburgh Pirates – 3.29
-- (T21) Milwaukee Brewers – 3.29
17. (17) Cleveland Indians – 3.27
T18. (20) San Francisco Giants – 3.25
-- (T21) Tampa Bay Rays – 3.25
20. (16) Chicago White Sox – 3.02
21. (23) Minnesota Twins – 3.01
22. (11) New York Mets – 2.91
23. (15) Los Angeles Dodgers – 2.85
24. (25) Philadelphia Phillies – 2.81
25. (27) Seattle Mariners – 2.69
26. (24) Los Angeles Angels – 2.51
27. (26) Toronto Blue Jays – 2.44
28. (28) San Diego Padres – 2.25
29. (29) Houston Astros – 1.95
30. (30) Miami Marlins – 1.76
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Apr 24, 2013 11:53 AM EST
By Andrew Perna
Baseball is a game of numbers, but sometimes they lie. The season is less than a month old, which lends itself to some crazy digits. The sample sizes are small and some of the statistics are huge. The average team has played just 12.3% of the schedule, which is the equivalent of less than two full NFL games and just 10 of the 82 contests on the NBA docket.
In short, things will change and players will revert to the mean. In some cases, that means they will rebound from a slow start, but in this piece we will focus on players that will undoubtedly regress as the season matures.
Chris Johnson, 3B, Braves
Filling the void left behind by Atlanta legend Chipper Jones, Johnson has done nothing but rake this season. He is hitting .397/.424/.556 through 17 games (63 at-bats), a batting average more than 100 points higher than his career mark (.282). He's killing waist-level pitches and has a .460 batting average on balls in play.
Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles
The 27-year-old has already slowed from his early home run pace, six in his first nine games and just one since, but it's his average and plate discipline that figure to decline the most. The slugger is hitting .382/.463/.794, significantly better than anything he's ever posted over a full season. He is averaging 0.59 walks per strikeout through 20 games, a rate nearly three times as high as he posted last season. Davis is seeing just 3.72 pitches per plate appearance, the lowest of his career. His strikeouts will soon loom over his walks.
Daniel Murphy, 2B, Mets
His .357 average isn't a complete aberration -- he hit .320 over 109 games in 2011 -- but significant regression is on the horizon. Like Johnson, when he puts balls in play they have found holes. He has a .377 BAbip, more than 50 points higher than his career mark of .325. His .571 slugging percentage will also drop. Murphy has the highest home run rate of his career and he's on pace to hit 63 doubles. Singles are much more likely.
Mark Ellis, 2B, Dodgers
It wasn't my intent, but I appear to be picking on infielders. The 35-year-old Ellis is hitting .348/.370/.470 for the Dodgers in 66 at-bats. Over 10 full seasons, Ellis has hit better than .300 just once (.316 in 2005) and for his career the second baseman is a .266/.331/.395 hitter. I'll lean on BAbip once again, a good indicator of hitting luck, as Ellis has a .396 mark. That number is exactly 100 points higher than it was last season with Colorado.
Justin Upton, LF, Braves
His batting average and on-base percentages aren't all that alarming compared to his career numbers, but Upton's power has been amazing. He leads all of baseball with 11 home runs (a historic figure through 20 games) and his slugging percentage (.813) is almost double what it was in his final season with the Diamondbacks. He is averaging just 6.8 at-bats per home run, an amazing rate. He has averaged 23 at-bats per homer in his 751 Major League games. At his current pace, Upton would hit close to 90 home runs. I think the Braves would be thrilled with 35 dingers.
John Buck, C, Mets
He has already started to cool off, but Buck was so hot over New York's first 10 games that his numbers still jump off the screen. The 32-year-old is hitting .277/.300/.631 with seven home runs and 22 RBI. He leads the National League in RBI and sits behind only Mike Napoli (25) for the overall lead. In his best Major League season, he hit .281/.314/.489 with 20 home runs and 66 RBI over 118 games with Toronto (2010). Buck isn't a bad hitter, but as he has shown over the last seven days (three hits in 19 at-bats), the hot start just couldn't last.
Shin-Soo Choo, CF, Reds
Choo has hit the ground running with the Reds, hitting .387/.535/.613 for his new club through 75 at-bats. The outfielder has never hit higher than .309 over the course of a full season and his walk-to-strikeout rate (0.82) is easily a career-high. He does have a history of good OBP numbers, but not a 53.5% rate. At this point in the season, almost half of the balls that come off his bat are finding space in the defense. He was a good addition to Cincinnati and he'll perform at an All-Star level, but his slash lines won't last.
Mike Napoli, 1B, Red Sox
We knew Napoli would hit well at Fenway Park -- he is hitting .282/.364/.564 at home and .256/.256/.535 on the road -- but it's his run-producing performance that has been exceptional. He leads all of baseball with 25 RBI in the heart of Boston's lineup. Napoli is hitting .188 with the bases empty, but .357 with runners on and in scoring position. He will continue to knock in runs, but such a difference between his hitting splits will not last. Over his career, 15% of the runners on base when Napoli comes to the plate have scored. Through 87 plate appearances this season, 26% of such runners are crossing home plate.
(@Andrew_Perna)
New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Cincinnati Reds, Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves
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Ian Kinsler, once thought to be dispensable in Texas, leads the Major Leagues with 1.5 WAR as the Rangers sit second in our rankings.
Apr 16, 2013 10:41 AM EST
The Braves are 11-1 this season and riding a nine-game winning streak.
A week into the 2013 season, the Rockies are an offensive power, the Dodgers are incredibly hard to score against and the Mets, Red Sox and Reds are very balanced.
Mar 30, 2013 12:08 PM EST
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