We already previewed the ALCS, so now it’s time for a debate about the merits of the teams competing in the NLCS, the Dodgers and Cubs. I have drawn the task of arguing on behalf of the Dodgers, when much of the world seems to think that we should just hand the Cubs the World Series trophy and be done with it. The Cubs, for all of their strengths, and there are many, didn’t win 162 games this season and strange things happen all the time in baseball. After all, the Cubs’ worst head-to-head record this year was against the Rockies, of all teams, with both Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester taking losses at home. It took some bullpen buffoonery on the part of Giants manager Bruce Bochy to keep the Cubs from playing a win-or-go-home Game 5 against San Francisco, lest you forget.

Right off the bat, it’s worth noting that, even if Vegas is picking the Cubs, the stat masters over at Fangraphs are, at the time of my writing this, actually giving the Dodgers a very, very slight edge in the series, 50.9% for the Dodgers to win vs. 49.1% for the Cubs (and if you want an in depth explanation of why, this is a good read that covered all the playoff teams). While that’s still really a coin toss, let’s see why the Dodgers are going to win the series.

First of all, the Dodgers’ pitching has finally come around to finish off the year. The number of injuries that the Dodgers dealt with in their rotation this season was absurd, but that was built into the game plan from the get-go and the rotation finally rounded into form just in time for the postseason. The Cubs haven’t faced Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda or Rich Hill yet this season, so we don’t have a lot of history here, just the fact that that’s a pretty intimidating top-three. Giants lefties held the Cubs to a .185 AVG in the NLDS and that may prove to be an issue for the Cubs in the this series as well, with Kershaw, Hill and rookie phenom Julio Urias available as well. 

Kershaw has the most history against Cubs batters, and he’s surely aware he’ll definitely need to be careful with a few. Dexter Fowler, in particular seems to have Kershaw’s number, but there’s plenty of other folks who are just going to look silly against the best pitcher on the planet, undeserved poor postseason reputation be damned. After all, he just pulled what we know these days as a “Bumgarner” and carried his team to the NLCS in epic fashion.

The reason that the Dodgers are even here is that they were able to down the Nationals in a ridiculous game where Washington started probable Cy Young winner Max Scherzer. The lineup was able to pull that off, and they should hold their own against the Cubs rotation. The Dodgers may not have likely MVP Kris Bryant, but they have the next best thing in the NL in Corey Seager. While he didn’t perform admirably in the series against the Nationals, he wasn’t Anthony Rizzo/Jason Heyward/Dexter Fowler/Addison Russell-level lost at the plate. Howie Kendrick (.333/.500/.667), Joc Pederson (.333/.444/.600) and Justin Turner (.400/.591/.733) didn’t have any problems in their NLDS either. 

While the Dodgers lineup does have a serious weakness against left-handed pitching, the only starting southpaw the Cubs are going to throw at the Dodgers is Jon Lester. Obviously, the Dodgers are going to want to make sure they get their scoring done before Aroldis Chapman comes into the games, as he has absolutely owned Dodgers hitters, but Chapman can’t pitch every inning.

The Dodgers’ bullpen was one of the best this year, with the lowest ERA in MLB (3.35), the fourth lowest FIP (3.55), third best K-BB% (17.7%) and was the fourth best by RE24 (33.33). All-Star closer Kenley Jansen is having a career year, leading all relief pitchers in fWAR (3.2) and coming in second in FIP (1.44, behind Chapman) and second again in K-BB% (37.1%). If you care about the good ol’ fashioned saves, well, Mr. Jansen had just as many (47) as possible Cy Young closer Zach Britton. We know after Game 5 of the NLDS that the Dodgers will take full advantage of Jansen. 

There are certainly some areas where you have to give the edge to the Cubs, no questions asked, like defense, for one. But all in all, these teams are very closely matched and, it’s worth noting that, since the baseball gods have killed the #EvenYear, what would be a more apropos way to bury it and spit on its grave than to have the Giants’ archnemesis win the World Series? Have you ever heard anyone speak up at a wedding when they ask if anyone objects? The baseball gods would, and they would probably have a slideshow ready to go. Needless to say, do not invite the baseball gods to your wedding and do not sleep on the baseball gods’ desire for chaos. That being said, the Dodgers are actually a damn good team who can certainly win 4 out of 7 against the Cubs.

More NLCS coverage: The Case for the Cubs

ALCS coverage: The Case for the Indians

ALCS coverage: The Case for the Blue Jays