After a long wait, Justin Upton and his agent can breathe a sigh of relief after the Detroit Tigers signed Upton to a six-year deal earlier this week. Earlier in the offseason, it was presumed that we would only need to wait for Jason Heyward to sign a deal and then the dominoes would fall and Upton and Yoenis Cespedes would quickly be snatched up by teams in need of outfield assistance. Well, as we all know by now, Heyward signed with the Cubs over a month ago (that’s decades in offseason terms) and it took a month for Upton to secure a contract (and Cespedes remains unsigned).

There had been much talk about how teams were valuing Upton, that teams had wanted to go no longer than three years, preferring one or two, basically a “prove-it” deal for Upton, who is only 28 and therefore the youngest free agent outfielder on the market after Heyward signed. Upton, of course, was looking for a more sizable contract than that, and, before the offseason, folks generally seemed to be predicting that he would get something along the lines of a five to seven year deal based on his age and ability.

There was some talk of “character issues”, which should certainly be taken with a grain of salt. After all, those so-called issues came into existence while Upton was with Diamondbacks under the Kirk Gibson-Kevin Towers management tandem that was so, sogritty. We’re talking about a three-time All Star here who is hitting free agency at the ripe young age of 28. Lo and behold, the market corrected itself and Upton is now on the Tigers, who care not for concerns such as “the future” and only about “winning now, like right now.”

When he first debuted in 2007 at the age of 19, Upton was originally projected to have potential superstar talent. When he broke out and put up 4 WAR in his second full season, it looked like he might well be on his way to figuring everything out and doing so. Alas, the following season did not go quite so well (1.5 WAR), but then the season after that he put up 6.1 WAR, played in 159 games, putting up a slash line of .289/.369/.529 and mashing 31 homers. That’s a superstar season, alright. Of course, that ended up being far and away the best season we have seen from Upton, so far at least, and since then he’s chronologically had 2.5, 2.9, 3.2 and 4.4 WAR seasons.

A couple of things to note about those seasons: (1) he’s been getting better every season and (2) those are good, not great, seasons and they are the kind of numbers that certainly help out a team, assuming that the player’s contract is not overly burdensome. On that note, on to the contract that Upton signed with Detroit. It’s for six years and $132.75 million and it features something that is becoming more and more common, an opt-out clause, specifically after two years.

First thing’s first, Detroit absolutely needed to sign an outfielder this offseason. No matter how you platoon them, some combination of Cameron Maybin, Tyler Collins and Anthony Gose wasn’t going to cut it, not on a team truly looking to contend, and Detroit is certainly that.

Owner Mike Ilitch has made no secret of the fact that he wants to win a World Series, no matter the cost, and that he wants to win it sooner rather than later, as he’s currently 86 years old. The Tigers have been built as a win-now team for years and time is running out before they have to pay the piper. While they may have restocked a bit last year, they’ve been mortgaging the future and emptying the farm and signing players to long, expensive contracts for ages.

This is one of the reasons that the Upton contract is such a great deal from the Tigers’ perspective. They’ve got a very good, and potentially great player, for a couple of years and about $44 million. As usual with these sorts of deals, the Tigers will be ecstatic if Upton opts out after just two years, as it will mean that Upton will have done exactly what was hoped and been on the superstar rather than replacement level side of the spectrum. If not, well, Upton is still young and this contract isn’t taking him into his late 30s (or even his 40s) as some of the other contracts Detroit has on the books are.

Grade for Upton: A

As we already clearly understand, these opt-out clauses are great for the players. If Upton plays well enough to opt out after two years and sign a new contract, he’s going to make a lot more money. If everything goes right for the Tigers over the first couple years of the contract and Upton plays well enough to end up opting out, well, Upton could have a ring at the time he opts out. If not, well, he will still be a much wealthier man at age 33 than most.

Grade for Tigers: A

Of course there’s risk with this contract, as there is with every contract ever. If Upton falls off a cliff next season and never delivers on the field, then the Tigers are screwed. While the future is unknowable, that scenario, however, is fairly unlikely. Over the last three seasons, Upton has hit .262/.344/.470 and averaged 27 home runs a year, while playing pretty good defense and showing a little speed on the basepaths. Upton appears to have a high floor, and with the high ceiling to go along with it, it’s hard to argue that this move, while not as exciting as, say, the Tigers signing Heyward earlier in the offseason, is a very smart baseball move.