This offseason has been full of surprises in the NL West, all involving starting pitching. The Dodgers decided that there is actually a ceiling on what they will spend and were outbid on Zack Greinke. That Greinke signed with the Diamondbacks was also pretty surprising. Then the Diamondbacks offered up a surprising amount of talent to land Shelby Miller. That the Giants signed Jeff Samardzija to a five-year $90 million deal wasn’t too surprising in and of itself, but when they signed Johnny Cueto a week later, well, surprise!!!

Cueto’s deal is still pending a physical, but if the deal goes forward as reported, it’s a six-year $130 million contract, with an opt-out clause for Cueto after two years. We’ll be coming back to that opt-out clause in a bit, but first let’s chat about the Giants and their history of splashy free agent pitcher signings. The last one, as you may have heard, was Barry Zito, way back in 2007. There are certainly some warm and fuzzy Barry Zito memories for Giants fans, like Zito out-dueling Justin Verlander in Game 1 of the 2014 World Series. All in all though, the $126 million seven-year contract the Giants gave Zito, which was the biggest ever when it was signed, was not a wise use of resources, as Zito left his Cy Young stuff behind him when he crossed the bay from the Oakland A's.

Since Zito, the Giants have either held onto their own, as when they re-signed Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Tim Lincecum, or have made less splashy moves, as with the recent Tim Hudson and Jake Peavy deals. So, committing $220 million to two pitchers with very large question marks certainly seems out of character. But then you realize that the Giants certainly have some extra change to spend right now, with Lincecum and Hudson coming off the books. Plus, since they have the best homegrown infield in baseball with cheap or reasonably priced players (for the value they provide) at every position, they can afford to take on some large contracts and hope that things work out for the coming even year.

An All-Star in 2014, Samardzija led the American League in earned runs allowed last year, but, per Fangraphs, the Shark had the league’s worst defense behind him. Plus, the White Sox’s pitching coach Don Cooper is saying that he was responsible for Samardzija’s down year and the stats show that he was throwing his fastball less than ever before and his cutter more than ever. Now, though, the Shark will be back in the National League, the Giants’ pitching coaches have a great reputation and the staff gets to pitch half their games at run-suppressing AT&T Park. Also, that same link about the White Sox which shows the White Sox defense in last? It shows the Giants in first, so there’s that, too. All in all, it’s not unreasonable to expect a bounceback from Samardzija, it’s just a risky move, but one that could certainly pay off if some of the stats-minded people are correct.

On then to the man of the moment, Johnny Cueto, who has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball before a rough 2015. Cueto has been in the top five for Cy Young votes twice, coming in 4th in 2012 and 2nd in 2014, so it’s not all that long ago that he was an ace among aces. From 2011 to 2014, Cueto had a 2.48 ERA and a 156 ERA+. In 2013, Cueto made multiple trips to the DL and only ended up starting in 11 games and pitching just over 60 innings. In 2014, he went on to pitch in 34 games and threw a career high 243 innings. That’s a lot of innings for a pitcher coming off an injury-riddled season.

In 2015, Cueto started the season with the Cincinnati Reds with a 2.62 ERA and a 151 ERA+. In May, while he was still with the Reds, Cueto’s elbow acted up again, but an MRI revealed nothing serious and Kansas City was confident enough that he was healthy enough to trade for him. Although it all ended up alright for the Royals, what with Cueto pitching eight innings in their ALCS clinching game against the Astros and then pitching a complete game in Game 2 of the World Series, it certainly didn’t appear that it would all end so rosily. Cueto had a 4.76 ERA in 13 starts with the Royals before the playoffs started, and didn’t really look like his prior self down the stretch or in his start against Toronto where he gave up eight runs in just two innings.

The Giants, however, think that he can return to form in San Francisco. All of what was stated before for Samardzija pitching in San Francisco applies to Cueto. He will be back in the NL, have a great defense behind him, great pitching coaches and presumably be pitching a bunch of games in AT&T Park. It’s the “presumably be pitching a bunch of games” part that is the scary part. If Cueto avoids the DL and resembles his former self, it’s a virtual certainty that Cueto will opt out of his contract after two years. As Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs points out, the Giants were wise to make this a front-loaded deal for two years, rather than three, given the quality of free agent pitchers that are likely to be available in those years, thereby increasing the likelihood that Cueto will indeed opt out.

Grade for Cueto: A+

If Cueto pitches anything like an ace for San Francisco, he’s going to be gone after two years and only $46 million, off to collect ace money from another team. If the elbow becomes an issue again or if Cueto just simply isn’t as good anymore, he’s still collecting that other $84 million.  There’s no way that Cueto loses in this situation.

Grade for Giants: B-

The Giants have now made two risky moves that could end up propelling them to another #EvenYear but could also be albatrosses in the future. If Bumgarner keeps on keeping on, Cueto returns to form, Samardzija bounces back, Cain is healthy and effective and Peavey is their fifth starter, that is a very scary staff. If everything breaks right, the Giants could have the best rotation in baseball in 2016. That, however, is a very, very big if.

Unfortunately, that’s the cost of doing business on the shiny free agent pitcher market, as the Giants already know. At least Cueto’s opt-out clause and the way his contract is structured makes things interesting, though. The Giants don’t want to miss out on capitalizing on their aforementioned homegrown infield and the nature of Cueto’s contract makes it an interesting gamble.