Neema Hodjat Alright, so with March Madness underway, it means 1) we’re in the midst of a glorious stretch of hoops, and 2) baseball season lurks right around the corner. So, how do you prepare for your fantasy baseball draft while March Madness is in progress? No easy answer to that question, but I can offer you some help. Below you will find the top baseball players (for fantasy purposes) divided by tiers within their position. For those new to fantasy baseball, I can’t emphasize strongly enough the merits of utilizing the tier system for conducting your draft. Do not rely solely on the rankings provided by your league or from some other source – you also need to account for how the players match up with each other within each position. So use the overall player rankings in conjunction with the tier system rankings. Keep in mind that the rankings below are based on the standard five by five categories (R, HR, RBI, AVG and SB for hitters and W, ERA, WHIP, K and SV for pitchers) and only reflect their expected values for the 2012 season. Players listed in the same tier for a position mean that I expect the players to have roughly the same value as each other for this coming season (i.e. interchangeable). So, losing out on selecting one player, but selecting another player at that position from the same tier should not cause a significant drop in production. Also, the numbered tiers for one position do not necessarily reflect equal value for the same numbered tier for another position (i.e. a Tier 2 catcher does not have the same value as a Tier 2 first baseman). Use your player ranking list as a guide for comparison. I will share a few thoughts on the players and tier breakdown for each position, and will conclude at the end of this article with some final thoughts on draft strategy. One final note – I have highlighted in bold a group of players whom I expect to substantially outperform their current draft positions. Without further adieu, let’s delve into the rankings. Catcher Tier 1: Carlos Santana, Brian McCann, Matt Wieters, Mike Napoli, Tier 2: Buster Posey, Joe Mauer, Miguel Montero, Alex Avila Tier 3: Wilson Ramos, Geovany Soto, JP Arencibia, Yadier Molina, Russell Martin, Kurt Suzuki Tier 4: Jonathan Lucroy, Chris Iannetta, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, John Buck Tier 5: Ryan Doumit, Carlos Ruiz, AJ Pierzynski, Ramon Hernandez, Devin Mesoraco, Miguel Olivo, Nick Hundley, Rod Barajas Analysis: Two divergent thoughts here. First, and the primary thought - you can get great value from players in Tier 3, and many from that group should be available late in the draft. Thus, I strongly recommend waiting until later in the draft to select a catcher. Wilson Ramos is an example of one catcher who is poised to provide a great return on investment. Also keep in mind that catchers comprise the most volatile offensive position in terms of year to year production. Injuries occur more often with catchers than at other offensive positions (see Buster Posey and Joe Mauer circa 2011), and keep in mind that even healthy catchers sit out roughly 20 games or so per season. So, you have further reason to wait until later in the draft to select your catcher. That being said, if you have the itch to select a catcher early in the draft, I think Matt Wieters is primed for a banner season, and could finish atop the catcher rankings. He had a terrific second half last season, and I expect his breakout to continue. So if you can get him at a good value (somewhere around pick #90 or so), then pull the trigger. Otherwise, don’t overspend to fill the catcher position. First Base Tier 1: Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols Tier 2: Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder Tier 3: Mark Teixeira Tier 4: Paul Konerko, Eric Hosmer Tier 5: Carlos Santana, Pablo Sandoval, Mike Napoli, Michael Morse, Lance Berkman, Michael Young Tier 6: Billy Butler, Freddie Freeman, Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, Michael Cuddyer, Gaby Sanchez, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Lee, Kendrys Morales, Ryan Howard Tier 7: Adam Lind, Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds, Edwin Encarnacion, Mike Carp, Adam Dunn, Mark Trumbo, Mitch Moreland, Brandon Belt Analysis: First base remains a relatively deep position; however, the delta between the top options and the mid level options remains significant. That being said, I have highlighted several players in Tier 6 who should post solid numbers. Provided that he’s healthy, Kendrys Morales can be a sneaky source of production in the late rounds. The Mets pair, Davis and Duda, can each post 25+ home runs with solid batting average and RBI totals. Even with solid options in the lower tiers, do not hesitate to grab a top first baseman if available – power remains at a premium this season. In that case, also grab one of the Tier 6 guys later, especially if your league contains a utility spot in the lineup. Second Base Tier 1: Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia Tier 2: Dan Uggla, Ben Zobrist, Brandon Phillips, Rickie Weeks Tier 3: Howie Kendrick, Dustin Ackley, Ryan Roberts, Neil Walker, Jason Knipsis, Jemile Weeks, Chase Utley Tier 4: Danny Espinosa, Kelly Johnson, Aaron Hill, Daniel Murphy Tier 5: Jose Altuve, Gordon Beckham, Allen Craig Tier 6: Omar Infante, Sean Rodriguez, Johnny Giavotella, Brian Roberts, Freddy Sanchez, Ryan Raburn, Mark Ellis, Orlando Hudson, Mike Aviles, Maicer Izturis, Ryan Theriot, Darwin Barney, Ruben Tejada Analysis: Second base has historically been known as a weak offensive position, but this season bucks the trend. The players in the first three tiers provide solid options, and I would recommend grabbing at least one of the guys from that group. The drop from the Tier 3 guys to the Tier 4 crew is significant. Chase Utley resides at the end of Tier 3 because of the severity of his injuries. He remains a major risk, and unfortunately, it looks as if his best days are behind him. As you can see, I consider both Jason Knipsis and Jemile Weeks as players likely to outperform their draft slots. Third Base Tier 1: Jose Bautista, Evan Longoria Tier 2: Adrian Beltre, David Wright, Brett Lawrie, Ryan Zimmerman, Alex Rodriguez Tier 3: Kevin Youkilis, Pablo Sandoval, Michael Young, Aramis Ramirez Tier 4: Ryan Roberts, Mike Moustakas, Mat Gamel, Mark Reynolds, Martin Prado, David Freese, Edwin Encarnacion, Emilio Bonifacio Tier 5: Lonnie Chisenhall, Chipper Jones, Chase Headley, Daniel Murphy, Sean Rodriguez, Danny Valencia Tier 6: Chris Davis, Pedro Alvarez, Ian Stewart, Scott Rolen, Placido Polanco, Scott Sizemore, Jed Lowrie Brett Morel Analysis: This year will be Brett Lawrie’s welcoming party to the group of elite third baggers. Third base has reasonable depth this year, but several of these players come with red flags. In Tier 2, David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman and A-Rod all have major injury risks. Kevin Youkilis has the same issue in Tier 3. Mat Gamel takes over for Prince Fielder at first base in Milwaukee, but he will keep his third base eligibility based on his time at the position last year. Gamel should provide a great return on investment in the later rounds. Otherwise, the lower tiers provide serviceable players, but not many of those players appear likely to alter the fantasy baseball landscape. Shortstop Tier 1: Troy Tulowitzki Tier 2: Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes Tier 3: Starlin Castro, Elvis Andrus, Alexei Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Asdrubal Cabrera Tier 4: Derek Jeter, Dee Gordon, JJ Hardy, Jhonny Peralta, Erick Aybar Tier 5: Stephen Drew, Marco Scutaro, Yunel Escobar, Ian Desmond, Mike Aviles, Emilio Bonifacio, Jason Bartlett, Alcides Escobar, Sean Rodriguez Tier 6: Zack Cozart, Jed Lawrie, Cliff Pennington, Rafael Furcal Analysis: Shortstop lacks depth this season. Up top, Tulo, Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes lead the way, and there’s quite a drop after those three. That being said, the Tier 3 crew should post good numbers, although not anywhere near the level of the Tier 1 and 2 guys. Tier 4 and below present major concerns, so if possible, grab one of the top shortstops (but as remains the case for any draft selection, do not reach too early for any player). If you go with a lower rated player, take a flyer on Dee Gordon, who should post Juan Pierre (the Florida Marlins version) like numbers. Outfield Tier 1: Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Jose Bautista Tier 2: Justin Upton, Carlos Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury Tier 3: Giancarlo Stanton, Andrew McCutchen, Curtis Granderson, Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Matt Holiday Tier 4: Jay Bruce, Hunter Pence, Alex Gordon, Michael Bourn, Desmond Jennings, Ben Zobrist, Shin Soo Choo, BJ Upton, Michael Morse, Lance Berkman, Shane Victorino, Jason Heyward Tier 5: Carl Crawford, Adam Jones, Jayson Werth, Ichiro Suzuki, Brett Gardner, Drew Stubbs, Andre Ethier, Logan Morrison, Cameron Maybin, Colby Rasmus Tier 6: Michael Cuddyer, Corey Hart, Chris Young, Carlos Beltran, Howie Kendrick, Coco Crisp, Nick Markakis, Torii Hunter, Nick Swisher, Carlos Lee Tier 7: Peter Bourjos, Angel Pagan, Alex Rios, Josh Willingham, Jason Kubel, Jeff Francoeur, Dexter Fowler, Mike Carp, Delmon Young, JD Martinez, Yonder Alonso, Melky Cabrera, Austin Jackson, Alfonso Soriano, Mike Trout, Jose Tabata, Michael Brantley, Yoenis Cespedes, Brennan Boesch, Jason Bay Analysis: The outfield position contains several great players up top, along with many intriguing, high-upside players in the lower tiers. Look for many of the 2011 disappointments to rebound this season, including Jason Heyward, Jayson Werth, Shin Soo Choo and Colby Rasmus. All can be had at bargain basement prices compared to last season. Carl Crawford continues to concern me due to his wrist issues. Let someone else take that chance. As for strategy for the outfield position, I’d recommend grabbing at least one player early (Tiers 1 through 3), at least one from Tier 4, and at least one from Tier 5. And if you have utility spots, it’s good idea to grab a fourth outfielder somewhere within the first five tiers. Starting Pitcher Tier 1: Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee Tier 2: Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Zack Greinke, David Price, CC Sabathia Tier 3: Jon Lester, Yovanni Gallardo, Matt Cain, Stephen Strasburg, James Shields Tier 4: Ian Kennedy, Matt Moore, Madison Bumgarner, CJ Wilson Tier 5: Josh Johnson, Mat Latos, Adam Wainright, Yu Darvish, Jordan Zimmerman, Daniel Hudson, Ricky Romero Tier 6: Tommy Hanson, Corey Luebke, Brandon Morrow, Josh Beckett, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Garza, Chris Carpenter, Shaun Marcum, Jhoulys Chacin, Michael Pineda, Ubaldo Jimenez, Anibal Sanchez, Gio Gonzalez, Brandon Beachy, Ervin Santana Tier 7: Max Scherzer, Hiroki Kuroda, Jamie Garcia, Scott Baker, Ryan Dempster, Tim Hudson, Doug Fister, Derek Holland, Brandon McCarthy Tier 8: Jonathon Niese, Bud Norris, Wandy Rodriguez, Johnny Cueto, Jair Jurrens, Colby Lewis, Tim Stauffer, Ted Lilly, Justin Masterson, Gavin Floyd, Ricky Nolasco, Jonathan Sanchez, Johan Santana, Trevor Cahill, John Danks, Edwin Jackson, Chad Billingsley, Mark Buehrle, Vance Worley Tier 9: Homer Bailey, Ivan Nova, Alexi Ogando, Mike Leake, Phil Hughes, Ryan Voglesong, Erik Bedard, Francisco Liriano, Philip Humber Analysis: Starting pitching rivals the Pacific Ocean in terms of its depth this season. Okay, not quite that deep, but you get what I’m saying. There are even players in Tier 9 that could provide great results. Don’t misconstrue that to mean that the top pitchers won’t have stellar seasons. But, pitchers (both starters and relievers) share some commonality with the catcher position, namely the risk of inconsistency from one year to another. Injuries are more prevalent with pitchers than with hitters. I have highlighted several players whom I expect to outperform their draft positions. Josh Johnson, if healthy, will put up Tier 2 numbers. Madison Bumgarner showed significant promise last season, and his name coming up in the Cy Young discussion shouldn’t surprise us this season. With all this said, you can afford to wait on drafting most of your starting pitching until you’ve solidified your offense. There are great pitching values to be had in the later rounds, so don’t spend more than two (or three maximum) of your top ten picks on pitchers. Now, if you’re league places extreme value on pitching, then adjust your strategy accordingly. I’m just noting that there’s plenty of pitching to be had in later rounds, and as with every season, pitchers will emerge during the year. Relief Pitcher Tier 1: Craig Kimbrell, Mariano Rivera, Drew Storen, John Axford, Jonathan Papelbon Tier 2: Ryan Madson, Heath Bell, JJ Putz, Brian Wilson, Joel Hanrahan, Jose Valverde Tier 3: Rafael Betancourt, Jason Motte, Jordan Walden, Andrew Bailey, Joe Nathan, Carlos Marmol, Brandon League Tier 4: Huston Street, Sergio Santos Tier 5: Kyle Farnsworth, Grant Balfour, Kenley Jansen, Matt Capps, Matt Thornton, Frank Francisco, Chris Perez, Jim Johnson, Tier 6: Brian Fuentes, Jonathan Broxton, Greg Holland, Daniel Bard, Addison Reed, Javy Guerra, Tyler Clippard, Mike Adams, Johnny Venters Analysis: By now I’m sure you’ve heard that spending early draft capital on saves constitutes a bad idea. Well, relief pitchers comprise the most volatile position. Roughly one third of the closers will lose their job, either due to performance, injury or some other reason. Also, the year to year stats of many closers fluctuate (see Brian Wilson last season as a good example). My favored strategy for closers is to grab 2-3 closers starting from the Tier 3 group and below. Every year, guys like Sergio Santos and Grant Balfour end up with 40+ saves. Then, work the waiver wire during the season to grab a few of the relievers who get promoted to the closer position. So, grab some closers, but not very early. Grab the mid level to late tier guys, and keep an eye on the wire. Final Analysis So, for an overall strategy for this season’s draft, I would offense with eight or so of your first ten picks. Then, I would spend 8 or so out of your next 10 picks on pitchers (including a few closers). Pitching is easier to find during the season than offense, and as such, your mantra should be to make sure you leave the draft with a good offense. Plus, especially in relation to head to head leagues, pitching can be manipulated more easily (two start weeks, streaming, etc.) than offense. In rotisserie leagues, the quality of pitching takes on more importance. Of course these items may vary significantly dependent upon your league rules, so make sure you know the rules well. At your draft, you should have 1) a breakdown of your players by position in tiers, and 2) an overall ranking of the players for reference in comparing players from different positions. Don’t get too attached to any one player, and don’t reach for players; let the draft come to you instead. Most importantly, make sure to have fun. I hope this draft primer has been helpful, and I wish you the best of luck with your season. I would love to hear from you if you have any comments or questions. I can be reached at nhodjat@gmail.com.